Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
550 PM MST Thu Nov 28 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainfall will increase in coverage tonight as a strong low pressure
system moves into the Desert Southwest. There will also be very windy
conditions at times along with a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Snow levels will drop rapidly across Gila County Friday morning
and it will be cold enough for accumulating snow, generally above
4500 feet. Warmer and drier conditions are expected during weekend as
high pressure builds across the Rockies. Another low pressure system
will bring a chance of rain to the region midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The heaviest precipitation associated with the well-advertised
Pacific low pressure system has moved inland along the southern
California coast while further east across Arizona, showers early
this morning across Maricopa County didn't amount to much.

Latest visible satellite shows some breaks in the clouds across
western Arizona, which reveal thickening stratocu marching due
northward, embedded with an anomalously strong 40 kt low-level jet.
The HREF suggests the increasing instability across western Arizona
coupled with vorticity-forced ascent will result in a developing area
of shower activity late this afternoon and this evening, likely
stretching from Maricopa and La Paz Counties back into Yuma County.

Latest CAMs and global models depict the main batch of precipitation
stretching along a north-south line near the Colorado River Valley
late this afternoon and this evening. Given the 60-80 kt deep-layer
shear and modest instability, there is some potential for organized
convection, most likely in the form of a squall line. However, a
supercell cannot be ruled out as well. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing heavy rain, hail, and even severe wind gusts.
A brief tornado is also possible within any sustained supercells or
embedded circulations, particularly across Imperial and Yuma
counties.

The NAEFS 850 mb wind percentiles near 55 kt will approach
all-time records this evening across southwestern Arizona. With
widespread shower activity moving steadily across Arizona, it won't
be difficult to mix down gusts as high as 40-55 mph to the surface.
ECMWF-E and GEFS plumes have generally captured the potential for
stronger wind gusts and this is reflected in the latest forecast.
Heaviest rain across south-central Arizona will likely occur between
10 pm and 7 am. Little change was made to forecast QPF. Ensembles
continue to suggest rain totals will range from 1 to 1.5 inches
across the Phoenix area, with higher amounts to the north and east.

The heaviest precipitation will translate eastward into Gila County
Friday morning. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for
significant snow accumulations, generally above 4500 feet. Rainfall
will taper off quickly during the morning across the Phoenix area,
with clearing likely in the lower deserts during the afternoon.

In the wake of the low pressure system, a ridge will migrate
eastward across the Desert Southwest Saturday and amplify across the
Rockies Sunday. GEFS indicates mid-level heights will remain above
average through early next week, which will translate into above
normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday. There is increasing
likelihood another trough will impact the region during the midweek
period. Both the GEFS and ECMWF-E suggest the potential for
another 0.5-1.0 inch of rain. However, thicknesses point to a warm
system with above normal snow levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0050Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Strong southerly winds with gusts up to 30 knots and increasing
low clouds and shower activity will be the main aviation weather
impacts through 06Z. SCT-BKN ceilings currently around 5 kft will
lower to 4 kft over the next few hours with a few lower ceilings
associated with isolated showers. Deeper convection is currently
not expected until after 06Z due to a stable layer just above the
melting level, but this should erode with steepening lapse rates
just below it as the front arrives closer to 09-10Z. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
front, with a line of storms along with a brief period of IFR-
MVFR visibilities and ceilings expected with the front. South-
southwest 30-40 knot gusts are expected just ahead of and along
the front, with brief stronger gusts possible. Widespread shower
activity will continue behind the frontal convective line through
14-16Z, with ceilings gradually improving and westerly wind gusts
decreasing below 20-25 knots by the afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A strong line of thunderstorms currently moving into the vicinity
of KBLH will cause brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities
with 30-40 knot gusts with isolated gusts up to 50 knots through
03Z. Shower activity will continue at KIPL through 04Z with brief
periods of reduced visibilities and 4-5 kft ceilings, with
isolated showers across southeast California expected through
10Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of the front this evening near the Maricopa County border
with La Paz and Yuma Counties as a 50 knot low-level jet sets up.
Frequent southerly to westerly 30-40 knot wind gusts with isolated
gusts up to 50 knots within convection as it mixes down higher
momentum air aloft are expected this evening and overnight for
southwest Arizona as well. Showers will continue overnight behind
a the front, with skies clearing from west to east as strong
westerly winds gusting to 35 knots continue into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday:
Below normal temperatures Saturday will warm to near normal by
Monday under slow drying conditions and light winds. Moisture
levels should remain fairly elevated through early next week with
minimum RH values mostly above 35 percent. The next low pressure
system then looks to approach from the west late Tuesday into
Wednesday bringing increased moisture, rain chances, and breezy
conditions later Wednesday

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for AZZ534-537>563.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM MST Friday for
     AZZ534-537>544-546-548>551-553>555-559.

     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Friday for
     AZZ545-547-552-556>558-560>563.

     Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to midnight MST
     Friday night for AZZ557-558-563.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ530>533-535-536.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MST tonight for AZZ530>533-535-536.

CA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for CAZ569.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM PST this evening for CAZ562-564-565-
     569-570.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for CAZ560.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 3 PM PST Friday for CAZ560.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...Hopper
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
436 PM MST THU NOV 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     FLOOD            5 SE WINONA             33.18N 115.89W
11/28/2019                   IMPERIAL           CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CA86 CLOSED DUE TO WATER ON ROAD.

&&

KW