Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
455 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Large areas of strong winds and blowing dust are expected over
south-central and southwest Arizona late this afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected as well,
mainly over south-central Arizona. Any given storm will be
capable of producing extremely strong winds and brief heavy rain.
Storm chances will trend down Monday and remain marginal for much
of the workweek before an uptrend later next weekend. Expect above
normal high temperatures for much of the workweek as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today and Tonight...
Convection over the Rim and White Mountains is underway but even
the lower elevations have started (a bit early). The basic
ingredients in play for this afternoon include 500 to 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, 1300-1500 J/kg of DCAPE, and moderate to strong (for our
area this time of year) easterly steering flow and associated
effective shear. This scenario is supportive of storms capable of
producing strong downdrafts and possibly organizing into linear
structures. However, there still remains CIN to overcome over much
of our forecast area. There is still time for additional surface
heating so expect some more erosion of the CIN but likely some
areas will remain. To varying degrees, the CAMS have been
depicting a scenario of storms over east-central Arizona and
southeast AZ (especially central Pima County) tracking west and
northwestward and producing strong outflows. In turn, colliding
outflows lead to new storm development. Of note, there is
generally good agreement that storms will get to the northern and
eastern edges of metro Phoenix but otherwise not become widespread
on the Valley floor. This is likely due to CIN but also there
isn't a bunch of activity over Graham and eastern Pinal Counties
track west/northwestward due to drier air there. At a minimum
though, anticipate broad swaths of outflow causing varying degrees
of blowing dust over portions of Pinal, Maricopa, and Yuma
Counties (less so over metro Phoenix). In anticipation of this, a
Blowing Dust Advisory was issued earlier to provide a heads up.
Where storms do occur, they will be capable of producing localized
winds of 50+ mph and possibly even 60+. Later this evening,
storms are anticipated to develop over northern La Paz County as
outflows emanate from southwest Yavapai County (and possibly with
help from outflows coming in from the southeast). As for southeast
California, there is good agreement on the lack of storm
development (too much CIN). Of note, the HREF depicts potential
for outflows to move all the way through Imperial County. Eastern
Riverside County could get some outflow from storms emanating from over
northern La Paz and southern Mohave Counties.

Monday through Sunday...
Moisture values trend down during the first half of the workweek
as drier air from the east moves in. Thus, storm potential trends
down but not to zero. High temps nudge upward with portions of
south-central AZ flirting with high Heat Risk values. Will need to
keep an eye on this for possible need for a Watch. The GEFS
plumes depict an increase in precipitable water during the latter
half of the week. Possibly a reflection of the tangential impacts
of Tropical Storm Juliette as well as the subtropical high being
centered further east for a time. There looks to be a bigger
increase for Sunday possibly with the aid of an inverted trough.
That is when the next noticeable uptrend in PoPs takes place.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2354 UTC.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
An outflow boundary from the southeast has already pushed through
KIWA with another outflow boundary from the northeast expected to
push through KSDL by 00Z. This pair of outflow boundaries should
merge together and continue to support thunderstorm development as
it pushes to the west-southwest, moving through KPHX and KDVT
between 0015-0030Z. Winds at KPHX may initially be out of the
E-SE if that outflow boundary arrives first, but the faster-moving
NE boundary should quickly overtake it. Midlevel stability
evident on aircraft soundings into KPHX that may weaken convection
that develops to some extent despite its current organization
driven by 25-30 knot shear. Nevertheless, wind gusts of 30-35
knots are expected with the boundary with gusts in excess of 40-45
knots in thunderstorms , some which may be severe with winds
above 50 knots as all of Phoenix is currently under a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

Once the initial outflow boundary and line of storms pass, shower
activity with vicinity thunderstorms should continue through
02-03Z. Beyond this, the forecast is more uncertain as a strong
line should stabilize the atmosphere enough to prevent additional
thunderstorms from developing, but continued showers are possible.
For now, we are not showing any shower activity with easterly
winds generally persisting into the overnight hours even though
there may be a brief period of W-SW winds associated with outflows
on the backside of more organized convection. Assuming today's
storms hold together, we expect much less convective activity
tomorrow under weak subsidence with diurnal winds below 15 knots.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Outflow boundaries and wind shifts later tonight resulting from
storms in Arizona will be the greatest aviation impact, especially
at KBLH. Through the daylight hours, sustained S/SE winds upwards
of 15 kt will be common with a few gusts into the upper
teens/lower 20s. Confidence is moderate to high that strong
easterly outflow winds will sweep into SE CA (particularly KBLH)
late this evening. Although timing is relatively uncertain and
tied to the strength of storms and outflows currently pushing into
the Phoenix metro, we currently expect the boundary around 05Z
with a two-hour period of convection in the vicinity. Blowing dust
and reduced visibilities may be possible as well. Storms are
currently not expected to affect KIPL, but the TAFs for both sites
will be amended as confidence on the timing of the easterly
outflow and potential for convection increases.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
There is no significant change to the outlook forecast. Thunderstorm
chances will continue across most of southwest and south-central
Arizona, and southeast California, on Tuesday. Locally heavy rain
and gusty outflow winds will be possible. Despite the increase in
moisture and slight decrease in temperatures, daytime minimum
humidity values will still fall into the 15-20% range with overnight
recoveries into the 30-60% range. Outside of any outflows, the winds
will favor diurnal trends with typical afternoon breezes. A gradual
drying trend will occur Wednesday into Friday, keeping the highest
thunderstorm chances across the higher terrain of south- central
Arizona. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal each
day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter reports may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ531-532-
     535-536-538>540-550-551-553-554-559.

CA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Hopper/Hernandez
FIRE WEATHER...Rogers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
217 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019

AZZ563-012200-
Southeast Gila County AZ-
217 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM MST...

At 217 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Sawmill, or 36 miles northeast of Globe, moving west at
15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 11006 3353 11036 3377 11034 3373 11020
      3361 11005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 094DEG 12KT 3362 11021

Hernandez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
247 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019

AZZ552-558-012215-
Superior AZ-Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
247 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA AND PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL 315
PM MST...

At 247 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Top Of The World, or 8 miles east of Superior, moving west at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Superior, Top Of The World, Boyce Thompson Arboretum and
Top-Of-The-World.

This includes the following highways...
US Highway 60 between mile markers 223 and 241.
AZ Route 177 between mile markers 162 and 167.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 11089 3321 11104 3322 11117 3342 11118
      3343 11106 3339 11091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 090DEG 14KT 3333 11098

Iniguez

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
345 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019

AZZ552-553-555-558-012330-
Northwest Pinal County AZ-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon AZ-Superior AZ-
Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
345 PM MST Sun Sep 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MST...

At 345 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Boyce Thompson Arboretum, or near Superior, moving west at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Apache Junction, Superior, Gold Canyon, Florence Junction, Queen
Valley, Gold Camp, Kings Ranch, Boyce Thompson Arboretum and
Top-Of-The-World.

This includes the following highways...
US Highway 60 between mile markers 201 and 233.
AZ Route 79 between mile markers 140 and 150.
AZ Route 177 between mile markers 159 and 167.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MST for
southeastern Arizona.

LAT...LON 3318 11104 3310 11135 3314 11152 3334 11152
      3343 11143 3342 11115 3338 11102 3320 11101
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 096DEG 11KT 3325 11122

Iniguez

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