Wind Advisory 19, NWS Pocatello, ID

130 
WWUS75 KPIH 210159
NPWPIH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
659 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2019

IDZ052-053-210300-
/O.EXP.KPIH.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-191121T0200Z/
Arco/Mud Lake Desert-Upper Snake River Plain-
Including the cities of Mud Lake, INL, Craters of the Moon NM, 
Idaho Falls, Rexburg, and St. Anthony
659 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2019

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

Winds will remain gusty at times across the Arco Desert and Upper
Snake Plain through the evening but should be below advisory
levels. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/pocatello

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
427 AM MST Wed Nov 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. Today through Saturday.
A cold front has moved through the area. Breezy northerly winds
are dropping down into the Snake River plain over the Montana
Divide. Expect northerly winds of 15 to 20 knots to continue
through most of the day as cold air moves into the area. To our
south there is an upper level low over California. Models continue
to show this low move east over southern Nevada and Utah today.
Look for wrap around moisture to move over our southeast areas
today. There is some uncertainty how far north the moisture will
make it. Currently expect around Trace to .10 of inch of snow up
to around I-86 and then extending up to Idaho Falls. These areas
will have the cold air so any precipitation late this afternoon
into early evening will likely be all snow. Some models are
showing the possibility of 1/2 - 1 inch but these amounts would
be on the high end. The lower amounts are most likely. Farther
south in our southeast areas expect more snow with the heavier
snow starting this afternoon. The snow levels will start much
higher around 6500 feet late this morning into the early afternoon
when the snow starts. The snow levels will drop to around 5000
feet by Thursday morning. For storm totals expect 2 to 4 inches of
snow for most mountains above 6000 feet. The Wasatch mountains
could see 3 to 7 inches of snow. Emigration Pass will have the
greatest impacts with 2 to 4 inches of snow. Georgetown Summit and
Geneva Summit will get around 1 inch, maybe slightly higher, of
snow. All other passes look to get less than 1 inch, though 1 inch
is not out of the question. Snow drops off by Thursday morning.

For Friday look for dry and mostly clear conditions with a light
northerly wind. Saturday will be dry but upper level clouds start
to move into the area. Temperatures will be around normal to
slightly above normal on Friday and Saturday.
TW

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Wednesday. Expect an active
weather pattern during the period. Most of Sunday will be dry.
However, the next system starts to move into the area early
Sunday evening. By Sunday afternoon expect winds to pick up ahead
of this system. Most of the area looks to receive moisture from
this system. Snow levels look to be at valley floors except for
perhaps a short time Monday afternoon. The GFS model is showing 1
to 3 inches of snow down low with 3 to 6 inches for mountains
especially the Eastern and Caribou Highlands. There is some
uncertainty with this system. We have been favoring the GFS
model. However, the ECMWF model is much drier just showing a
couple of inches of snow along the Eastern Highlands. Currently
both models show mostly dry conditions Tuesday. Then both the GFS
and ECMWF models bring a moist system over the area on Wednesday.
Temperatures look to be above normal by a couple of degrees on
Sunday before dropping to below normal Monday by around 3 to 6
degrees. Expect even cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday,
around 5 to 10 degree below normal.
TW

&&

.AVIATION...Will have VFR conditions through this morning.  Big
question is how much moisture streams north from upper low to
south late today, tonight and Thursday morning. The precipitation
will likely get close to Burley, Pocatello, and Driggs. Generally
will have VFR conditions today with the potential for MVFR
overnight in snow at all locations other than SUN could
potentially see some MVFR conditions and snow overnight. A lot of
uncertainty in how far north the moisture makes it. Will have
strong north to northeast winds this afternoon at IDA, PIH and BYI
in the 15 to 20 knot sustained range.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&