Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
158 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night.

A low pressure system over southern CA/NV will gradually move east
over the next 48 hours into Arizona. Isolated to scattered afternoon
are once again possible this evening and Monday afternoon/evening.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of
extreme southeast Idaho where steeper mid level lapse rates exist.
Gusty winds and hail remain the most likely threats. Brief heavy
downpours are likely as well given the slow movement of these
storms.

Valle

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday. The forecast for the
middle and end of the week hasn't changed too much. Showers and
storms are still expected Tuesday along/east of I-15 as well as from
Monida down to near Mackay, as well as a few lingering west along
the Utah border toward City of Rocks. It looks like a small break
until later Wednesday, when a few showers and storms are expected
across the mountains although we may not see much across the
Sawtooths and Lost River Range. Things being to crank up Thursday
afternoon across central and eastern Idaho. This might actually be a
day we need to worry about strong to severe storms across the area.
Conditions could be ideal, depending on timing eventually works out,
for decent storms later in the day. Friday and Saturday look to be
colder and showery, with little to no thunder development on tap. We
should also see some decent winds with the front Thursday and Friday
across our area, even outside of showers or storms. We are still
looking at highs struggling to get out of the 50s on Saturday at
lower elevations. Snow levels Saturday morning should bottom out
around 6000-6500ft in the central mountains and around 7000-7500ft
along the Wyoming border...popping up to 7000-8000ft in the
afternoon. Yes, we did say snow for early June. The models get out
of alignment quickly on Sunday. The GFS remains on the fast side of
getting the closed low out of our hair, while the ECMWF remains
slower and keeps things pretty wet Sunday. That said, it is a touch
quicker than 24 hours ago. The Blend of Models pretty much agrees
with that scenario and tend to side with that forecast thinking in
these situations. If we get any sort of warming on Sunday, it will
only be a handful of degrees. Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms once again have fired across
eastern Idaho, especially the mountains. With weaker steering flow
still in place, there won't be a ton of movement with things and may
be more relying on storms developing on outflow as they "pop and
drop". It also remains to be seen how much can remain intact once
something tries to move out into the Snake Plain. Right now, we
maintain VCTS at all TAF sites through this evening. Stronger storms
could produce locally heavy rain, very small hail and maybe gusts
around 30 mph. Otherwise, look for light winds overall and VFR
weather. We could see some showers or storms linger overnight, but
right now that will be something that will have be forecasted with
shorter lead time just like the past couple of nights. More of the
same is on tap tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Keyes

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Several days of rainfall along with snowmelt are
producing high flows across the region. A flood warning continues
for the Big Wood at Hailey where flood stage was reached. Expect the
river to remain near or slightly above flood stage for much of the
week. A new flood warning was issued for the Raft River where an
upstream gauge went slightly above flood stage last night. This river
will likely hover near flood stage for a few more days as well.

Valle

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
353 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

IDZ051-052-022245-
Arco/Mud Lake Desert ID-Shoshone/Lava Beds ID-
353 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...WEAK THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF CRATERS OF THE MOON SLOWLY DEVELOPING
AND LIFTING NORTH THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 349 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm 15 miles
southeast of Craters Of The Moon, moving slowly north toward the
park.

Brief moderate rain, occasional lightning, and wind gusts to 40 mph
are possible with these storms as they lift north toward the park
through 445 PM MDT.

Locations impacted include...
Craters Of The Moon.

LAT...LON 4315 11324 4310 11347 4336 11359 4340 11322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 172DEG 4KT 4322 11338

Huston

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