Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
148 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through next Tuesday...The main weather
story for this evening pertains to thunderstorm chances across
Southeast Idaho. Favorable bulk shear and decent lapse rates may
be enough to allow for large hail in some thunderstorms. Instability
the rest of this afternoon may be counterproductive for
additional thunderstorm development as values are not too
favorable at this time; but still look to be enough to develop
some thunderstorms. It's tough to say just how strong they will be
as there are opposing atmospheric conditions. So far,
thunderstorms are building out of Nevada with progression to the
northeast through this evening. That would place thunderstorms in
a line across the lower Snake River Plain and track through
Pocatello, Blackfoot and Idaho Falls through the evening hours.
Areas to the south will also be impacted, including Soda Springs
and Lava Hot Springs. Expect around 1/4 inch of rainfall with this
line of rain and thunderstorms through this evening.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms may clip the southern
portion of the Idaho/Utah border overnight, impacting primarily
the Bear Lake region. This line would then move into Wyoming
through tomorrow morning. Speaking of tomorrow morning, increasing
chances for precipitation are expected from north to south as
wrap-around moisture arrives and the low exits to the east. Precip
will begin across Central Idaho and along the divide and track
southward through the day. This is where higher elevation snow
showers become more of a possibility across the Central Mountains.
Lighter rainfall amounts are forecast across the Snake River Plain
tomorrow afternoon, especially in the lower Snake Plain and in
South Idaho/Magic Valley areas as well.

Looking ahead to the latter half of the week, dry conditions
continue to be forecast while a weak ridge builds in. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 70s or maybe low 80s for Friday and
Saturday. A new upper low looks to influence our weather pattern
by Sunday, bringing in windy southerly conditions and the next
chance for rain showers by early next week. NP

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low over WA/OR will continue to bring showers
and mostly afternoon/early evening thunderstorms over the area.
Heaviest showers will be over our Southeast areas mainly along the
Utah and Wyoming state lines this evening into early morning. KDIJ
and, to a lesser degree KIDA, will see MVFR CIGS/VIS during heavier
rain showers mainly this evening into tomorrow morning. There will
be a chance of additional showers and afternoon thunderstorms
tomorrow, though it will again mainly impact KDIJ and KIDA and, this
time, possibly KPIH. Expect drier conditions Wednesday evening
through the end of the week. Wyatt

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...With an upper level low impacting the area expect
additional precipitation and, as a result, much higher relative
humidity and cooler temperatures, with snow levels as low as 9000
feet this evening. Though the whole area will continue to see some
precipitation this afternoon through the evening, the highest
precipitation amounts will occur over the Southeast and Eastern
highlands along our Utah and Wyoming borders as well as along the
Montana line near Salmon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
through early this evening bringing brief moderate to heavy rain,
small hail and gusty winds of around 30 mph up to around 40 mph.
Wrap around moisture will impact our Northeast areas tomorrow
morning mainly the Island Park area. With heating additional showers
and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon mainly over the
Eastern Central Mountains, Upper Snake River plain, Upper Snake
Highlands, Eastern Highlands and the Southeast Highlands, mainly
fire zones 410, 411, 413, 475 and 476.

High pressure ridging will build in late Wednesday into Thursday
bringing gradually warming and drying. Models continue to show the
ridge breaking down or flattening Friday into Saturday bringing
moderate winds Saturday as well as even slightly warmer and drier
conditions. Sunday expect even slightly drier and warmer conditions
in a slightly windier Southerly flow ahead of another moist, cool
upper level low approaching from the west. Wyatt

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
103 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

IDZ060-061-101945-
Bear Lake Valley ID-Bear River Range ID-
103 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 100 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a couple of thunderstorms
moving over Bear Lake moving North Northeast at around 15 to 20 mph.
Frequent lightning and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bear Lake Idaho Portion, Saint Charles, Fish Haven and Pegram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Bear Lake, Move to safe shelter. Do not be caught on
or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves are likely.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 11105 4200 11147 4218 11145 4219 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 240DEG 0KT 4217 11142

tw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

IDZ060-061-102030-
Bear Lake Valley ID-Bear River Range ID-
150 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 145 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a couple of thunderstorms
impacting Bear Lake. One thunderstorm is over southern Bear lake
with another thunderstorm approaching northern Bear lake moving
north northeast at 15 to 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bear Lake Idaho Portion, Saint Charles, Dingle, Paris, Bloomington,
Minnetonka Cave, Border Summit, Fish Haven and Pegram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning
can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Bear Lake, Move to safe shelter. Do not be caught on
or near the water. Gusty winds and choppy waves are likely.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 11170 4225 11159 4228 11105 4200 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 240DEG 0KT 4206 11144

tw