Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Pocatello, ID

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
137 PM MDT Thu Sep 5 2019

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through next Thursday. Early afternoon
satellite imagery was showing a low pressure trough lifting north
along the NW California coast as a veil of sub-tropical moisture
continued to stream north through Utah into SE Idaho. Numerical
models have keyed in on a little more thunderstorm activity across
SE Idaho as a result of the interaction between the ejecting trough
and moisture source this evening. Model trends continue to take the
ejecting trough further north and west with each forecast cycle late
tonight and Friday morning before shearing the wave east along the
Canadian border Saturday afternoon. As a result, the best chance for
thunderstorm activity appears to be Friday afternoon and evening
across the CNTRL and NE mountains. Some of these may be fairly
strong with accompanying heavy rain. The trough exits NE of the
region late Friday evening with drier conditions working from west
to east across the area Friday night. A transient ridge pushes
through the area Saturday for dry conditions followed by the next
incoming Pacific trough Saturday night through Sunday night. The
operational GFS is now showing a somewhat less organized system
while the ECMWF is maintaining a fairly deep closed low circulation
with abundant precipitation rotating through SE Idaho. A broad upper
trough spreads across the region in the wake of the aforementioned
exiting low with numerous differing details between the GFS and
ECMWF. Have generally allowed the National Blend of Models to drive
the forecast sequence here as this is where is performs best. We
certainly will see periods of breezy to windy conditions with each
passing storm along with cooler temperatures Sunday through next
week. Huston
&&

.AVIATION...There will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms
in the next 24 hours. We should coverage increase later this evening
through tomorrow morning associated with the cold front, this
includes possible overnight storms as well. Another round develops
behind the front tomorrow as well. With today's storms, initially
expect storms producing a brief downpour, small hail and gusts over
40kts. The round tonight could see a better chance of rainfall but
not hail or strong winds. With the last round, there is a chance of
brief heavy rainfall along with a better chance of hail. In terms of
gusts, most will be in the 30-4kt range...but a few gusts might
approach 50kts. Keyes
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The risk of showers and thunderstorms greatly
increases over the next 24 hours. Storms through this evening, will
be producing sporadic wetting rains...but storms will be more "dry"
vs "wet. Coverage will also remain below scattered as well. Other
risks with these storms will be small hail and gusts possibly over
40 mph.  For tonight and Friday morning, the chance of rain,
including rainfall over 0.10" increases with the band associated
with a cold front. We will also see isolated coverage of storms
through the same period. For tomorrow afternoon and evening, we are
expecting a third round. Coverage will increase to at least
scattered across most of central and eastern Idaho. We will also the
risk of hail and locally heavy rainfall increasing due to the
strength of these storms. Wind gusts in most cases will be over 40
mph. Farther east across the Snake Plain and into the highlands
along the Wyoming border, even higher gusts are possible. With
storms producing wetting rains, the potential for between 0.10-0.20"
exists across most zones. In the central mountains, there is the
potential for heavier rainfall. That means there could be issues on
burn scars.  That said, due to the recent long period of dry
weather, dry fuels and higher fire weather indices...we are actually
issuing FIRE WEATHER WATCHES for all of the central mountain fire
zones (422, 475, 476), as well across 425 and 427. The concern is
there could be new starts with lightning strikes even outside of the
heavier rain cores.  Oh, also expect gusty winds tomorrow behind the
front outside of thunderstorms.  Saturday will be dry and calm
weather wise across the area. Another storm is coming in for Sunday.
The storm might be moving through a bit quicker now, but expect much
cooler weather (dropping 10+ degrees from Saturday) and breezy
conditions. The risk of widespread of wetting rains is still there.
Cool weather persists next week, with yet another chance of decent
rainfall coming Wednesday.  Keyes
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon and evening for IDZ422-425-
427-475-476.
&&

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