Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Pocatello, ID

056 
WWUS85 KPIH 042032
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
232 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019


IDZ476-050300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-190805T0300Z/
Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF-
232 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 476...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire Weather Zone 476 Lemhi and Lost River 
  Range/Challis NF.

* THUNDERSTORMS...Scattered thunderstorms with frequent 
  lightning.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...Gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible near 
  thunderstorms.

* IMPACTS...Frequent lightning may result in new fire starts and 
  gusty outflow winds may create erratic fire behavior.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

* Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at 
  least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

* Thunderstorm coverage of 25 percent, without specific rainfall 
  criteria.

* Other high impact events deemed critical by the National 
  Weather Service and area fire management agencies.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
248 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday. Another monsoon push is still
forecast for today and this evening. We have some overnight
showers and isolated storms across the Snake Plain into the Teton
Valley and also toward the Montana border. We could see some of
this lingering this morning, but chances are quite low. As we get
into this afternoon, expect things really kick off. The best
chances for thunderstorms will be across the southern/eastern
benches of the Snake Plain...then south and east into the
mountains toward Driggs and Bear Lake. Another pocket of higher
coverage is expected from around Galena Summit and the
Boulders/Pioneers northeast across the central mountains. Other
mountainous areas will see more isolated coverage. The question
becomes about what amount of thunderstorm coverage we might see
across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley from outflow. It does
appear that we will see some development mainly across Craters,
the INL and northeast toward I-15. At the moment, we didn't go
gangbusters due to lower confidence...but the day shift may have
to push chances higher if we see a more definitive signal. We will
see a "mix" of dry and wet storms. That means some will produce
little rainfall and gusty winds. Expect this with initial
development and with most storms farther west (although isolated
storms in these areas COULD produce brief heavy rain). For other
storms, we will likely see some wind gusts...but a better chance
of locally heavy rainfall. We could see storms producing
0.10-0.25" of rain if not more in these areas. At the moment, we
are NOT expecting severe storms. Showers and storms should
quickly die down overnight, with a few lingering across the Bear
River Range and Bear Lake. For Monday, the air appears to be a bit
drier...helping limit thunderstorm coverage and potential for
heavier rainfall. Storms should be limited to the mountains and
highlands and more isolated in nature. The exception is around
Island Park, Centennials and around Gilmore Summit. Even with a
bit more cloud cover later today, we should remain above average
temperature wise. We will probably end up a bit warmer tomorrow,
but not by much.  Keyes

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next weekend. The ridge high pressure
nudges a bit more northwest. This should actually keep most of
monsoon moisture north and west of us, but still enough for daily
showers and storms across the central mountains and Island
Park/Centennial Mountains daily for through Wednesday. For
Thursday and potentially Friday, a storm forms off the coast and
starts moving inland. This will actually push the monsoon
moisture back over eastern Idaho for a better chance of showers
and thunderstorms. It does appear we may get an added moisture
boost from Tropical Storm Gil. We kicked the chance of rain up a
bit, but certainly not very high as we are still a ways out from
this happening. We will likely see some overnight showers/storms
just like we've been seeing off and on the past few days. We
should this storm by next weekend swinging northeast across
Pacific Northwest and along the US/Canada border. We should drier
air moving in, slightly cooler temperatures and some gusty winds
as well.  Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...Main impact today will be thunderstorm development this
afternoon and have vicinity at all TAF sites after 20Z.  Not
expecting significant winds today but will have wind gusts over 30
knots near any thunderstorms.  Conditions will remain VFR.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A return of monsoonal moisture on southerly flow aloft is expected
today with isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the entire
region.   Have issued a red flag warning for zone 476 for scattered
storms after noon through 9 pm.   Have some scattered activity
mainly in zones 413 and 411 and parts of 410 but at this point not
critical fuels yet in 411 and 413.  The thunderstorms today will be
the biggest impact in the short term.  Expect thunderstorms Monday
and Tuesday as well but less widespread area wise and mainly in high
elevations.  Hot conditions will continue through Tuesday with well
above normal temperatures.  Isolated thunderstorms will continue
through much of the week.  Cooler temperatures may return by next
weekend.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&