Winter Storm Watch 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

New Castle County, DE, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

227 
WWUS41 KPHI 021106
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
606 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

PAZ060-101>104-022200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-190302T1400Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
Berks-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Reading, Honey Brook, Oxford, 
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, 
Norristown, and Lansdale
606 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

* WHERE...The Pennsylvania counties of Berks, Chester and 
  Montgomery.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow may create hazardous travel
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Winter Storm Watch means that there is potential for 
significant snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the 
forecast over the weekend. 

&&

$$

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-061-062-105-106-022200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-190302T1400Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-
Northampton-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown, 
Bethlehem, Easton, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, 
and Doylestown
606 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 
  inches early this morning.

* WHERE...Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Until 9:00 AM.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect slippery conditions on untreated 
  roads, parking lots and walkways early this morning.

* WINTER STORM WATCH...Additional snow is anticipated from late 
  Sunday into Monday morning. Snowfall amounts of 4 to 9 inches 
  are possible at that time. Travel may become hazardous. The 
  snow is forecast to impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Winter Weather Advisory means that snow will cause travel
difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibility.
Use extra caution if driving.

This Winter Storm Watch means that there is potential for
significant snow that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the
forecast over the weekend.

The latest road conditions for your state can be obtained by
dialing 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Iovino

762 
WWUS41 KPHI 021355
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
855 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019


NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-061-062-105-106-030200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-190302T1400Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-
Northampton-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown, 
Bethlehem, Easton, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, 
and Doylestown
855 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 9 
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east 
  central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

* WINTER STORM WATCH...Additional snow is anticipated from late 
  Sunday into Monday morning. Snowfall amounts of 4 to 9 inches 
  are possible at that time. Travel may become hazardous. The 
  snow is forecast to impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

PAZ060-101>104-030200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
Berks-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Reading, Honey Brook, Oxford, 
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, 
Norristown, and Lansdale
855 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

151 
WWUS41 KPHI 022003
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
303 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ012>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-031100-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
New Castle-Cecil-Kent MD-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Chestertown, 
New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, 
Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson,
Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Media, and Philadelphia
303 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 
  to 4 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, 
  southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern 
  Delaware.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-031100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, 
Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, 
Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
303 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east 
  central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

991 
WWUS41 KPHI 030901
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-032115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.190303T2000Z-190304T1200Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jim Thorpe, 
Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, 
Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, 
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, 
and Doylestown
401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Most of eastern Pennsylvania, and northern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Rain or snow develops this afternoon, then all snow by 
  evening which should fall heavy at times tonight before ending 
  early Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Snowfall
  rates of up to an inch per hour will be possible between about 5
  PM and 11 PM. While the snow will end before the Monday morning
  commute, hazardous conditions should still be occurring from 
  the earlier heavy snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-014-016>020-027-PAZ070-071-032115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.190303T2000Z-190304T1200Z/
New Castle-Cecil-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, 
Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media, 
and Philadelphia
401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey, southeast 
  Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...Rain and snow develops this afternoon, then all snow 
  occurs into this evening. Snow should mix with sleet from 
  southeast to northwest by later this evening, with even some 
  areas changing to rain especially closer to the coast. Any rain 
  or wintry mix changes back to snow before ending early Monday 
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Snowfall
  rates of up to an inch per hour will be possible between about 5
  PM and 11 PM, especially closer to Interstate 95. While the
  precipitation will end before the Monday morning commute,
  hazardous conditions should still be occurring from the earlier
  heavy wet snow and sleet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

MDZ012-NJZ026-032115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.190303T2000Z-190304T1200Z/
Kent MD-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Chestertown and Long Beach Island
401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 1 to 4 inches expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Coastal Ocean county. In Maryland, Kent 
  MD county.

* WHEN...Rain develops this afternoon and changes to snow by early
  evening. The snow should then mix with sleet and change to rain
  for a time before ending early Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ002-MDZ015-NJZ021-022-032115-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0015.190303T2000Z-190304T1200Z/
Kent-Queen Annes-Cumberland-Atlantic-
Including the cities of Dover, Centreville, Millville, 
and Hammonton
401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 1 to 5 inches expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Cumberland and Atlantic counties. In 
  Maryland, Queen Annes county. In Delaware, Kent county.

* WHEN...Rain develops this afternoon and changes to snow by early
  evening. The snow should then mix with sleet and change to rain
  for a time before ending early Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
935 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A developing coastal low will bring light rain and snow to the
region through Saturday morning, with precipitation ending by
Saturday afternoon. Dry weather briefly takes hold through
Sunday afternoon. A larger coastal storm system will impact the
mid- Atlantic Sunday night into early Monday with a mix of rain
and snow. High pressure and dry weather moves in for most of the
remainder of next week, but temperatures will be well below
normal Tuesday through Thursday. Another storm system may
threaten by the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 pm update: Precipitation is increasing quickly from
southwest to northeast at this time. The precipitation is mostly
rain, but may be mixing with a bit of sleet or freezing rain in
far western portions of the CWA. A trend toward more wintry
types will continue as the precipitation shield moves northward,
as temperatures are hovering near or just below freezing in the
winter weather advisory area. The latest hi-res model
simulations continue to indicate the p-type axis near the
southeast edge of the current advisory area. As a result, made
no significant changes to the forecast at this time. Made some
tweaks to PoPs through the night based on latest guidance and
current radar trends; otherwise, the forecast appears to be
holding for now.

600 pm update: Few changes made to the grids early this evening,
but did want to make mention of the trend northwestward with the
HRRR p-type axis in the most recent simulations. This places it
more in line with other coarser and hi-res guidance, so do not
feel the need to change the precipitation types much at this
stage.

I did add patchy fog this evening to the grids, based on several
surface observations of visibilities a couple miles or lower in
Delmarva and southern New Jersey.

Previous discussion...

The main feature of interest in the short term is a coastal low
which is currently in the incipient stages of its development off
the NC/VA coasts. This low will deepen & be kicked northeastward
this evening into tonight as a shortwave approaches from the
southwest...passing the area in latitude by early Saturday morning.
Isentropic lift on the NW quadrant of this low combined with dynamic
ascent from the aforementioned shortwave will produce widespread
precipitation over the area tonight into Saturday morning.

Timing: Hi-res guidance has slowed slightly with the onset of
precipitation, with precipitation entering SW portions of the area
around 7-8PM and reaching northern portions of the forecast area
around or just after midnight. The heaviest precipitation will be
with this initial surge tonight into early Saturday morning when
warm advection is maximized in the 850-700 layer .

Precipitation type/amount: Precipitation types will be a challenge
again, however I-95/the Fall Line look like good approximations for
the boundary between wintry precipitation and rain. Guidance has
trended a bit colder overall with most ,except the GFS, keeping the
warm nose southeast of Berks county/the Lehigh valley. This means
most areas in the I-78 corridor and points north/west will recieve
primarily snow with this event, with a mix more likely towards the I-
95 corridor with rain through most of Delmarva (outside of northern
New Castle county perhaps) and the NJ coastal plain. In terms of the
character of the mix, am leaning towards sleet but freezing rain
cannot be ruled out with some minor ice accumulations, particularly
over portions of SE PA and Central NJ near and just west of I-95.
Forecast snow amounts generally range from 1-3 across most of the
area in the snow zone, however some 4+ inch amounts may be possible
particularly in the Lehigh valley/Bucks county and portions of NW NJ
near the I-78/I-80 corridors. Although amounts may be marginal for
headlines decided to issue an advisory for most of eastern PA/NW of
the Fall Line, and parts of NJ north of and around I-78.
Total precipitation amounts will trend down with distance from the
Coast, with coastal NJ and Delmarva likely receiving near or over
0.5 inches of water (although this will be rain), with generally
near or even under a quarter of an inch in the Poconos. There is
some potential of a mix or snow extending a bit further south
towards Philly metro for a time of the heavier precipitation (as the
HRRR suggests) but feel it is a bit too cold so went with a ptype
line more defined by the 3km NAM thermal profiles.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Although the heaviest precipitation will have tapered off by
Saturday morning a secondary shortwave may reignite another round of
lighter precipitation for a time Saturday morning. Rather than the
warm advection characterizing the earlier precipitation there will
be cold advection in the 850-700 layer in this period. This may
reduce precipitation intensity but may also somewhat erode the warm
layer aloft allowing some areas further southeast of the Friday
night/early Saturday morning rain-snow line to receive some light
snow at the tail end of the event. Once this feature passes by mid-
morning it should be a quiet but relatively cloudy day over much of
the area, outside of maybe a few showers in the Poconos associated
with a moisture-starved clipping shortwave. Highs should run about 5
degrees below seasonal normals, but the increasing March sun angle
should help melt some of the snowpack in areas affected by the
earlier storm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast starts out Saturday night with dry conditions
and near normal temperatures as a ridge of surface high pressure
tries to build across the region from the west. Zonal flow aloft is
forecast across most of the CONUS, with a shortwave trof moving
across the southern Rocky Mountains.

On Sunday the shortwv trof continues eastward and induces low
pressure development over the Gulf Coast states. It should be
noted that this upper level feature is currently well off the
West Coast so there is considerable uncertainty about its future
movement and strength, and about the associated surface low and
resultant weather. However, on Sunday increasing moisture and
upward vertical velocity will be spreading northeast across the
mid-Atlantic region. Precipitation in the form of rain and snow
is expected to spread across the region Sunday afternoon and
continue through much of Sunday night.

As for precip-type, we are keeping with the idea of mostly rain
south/east of the I-95 corridor, and mostly snow to the north/west.
Max temps on Sunday are expected to be above freezing, but will
likely fall below freezing north/west as the precip overspreads that
area. Several inches of snow accumulation are possible overnight,
especially across the Poconos, Lehigh Valley and northwest NJ.

Precipitation is expected to be over by around 12Z on Monday with
the deepening surface low somewhere near Cape Cod (although the GFS
is somewhat slower). Strong low-level cold advection will be
underway in NW flow, and max temps are forecast to be 5 to 10
degrees below normal.

Beyond the late weekend/early week storm, much drier weather settles
in for most of next week. Drier, but also much colder. Slow moving
and robust longwave trough will take its time pushing through the
East Tuesday through Thursday, likely finally pulling away towards
Friday. High pressure moving in from the west should keep most of
the region dry for a few days. Some typical nuisance, cold advection
snow showers are possible in the higher terrain to the northwest
with a couple of moisture starved shortwaves nearby. Also watching
cyclogenesis potential offshore towards Tuesday night, but with the
trough axis approaching that system will likely remain far offshore
as it develops. Otherwise, 850mb temperatures tumble to -20C by
Wednesday, impressive for March. Temperatures, both highs and lows,
from Tuesday through at least Thursday look a good 10 to 20 degrees
below normal, with gradual moderation possible towards Friday.
Expecting some cold overnights throughout the week as generally
light winds and clear skies will mean opportunities for efficient
radiational cooling. Any snow cover will further enhance this
potential, so gave some preference to colder solutions for the
midweek period. By late next week, we will have to watch a low
pressure of Pacific origin moving in from the west as the eastern
trough pulls away and the overall flow through the CONUS becomes
more zonal. Much too early for any details with that system, but
given the cold air mass in place ahead of it there is potential for
another winter weather event towards late Friday and into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight through Saturday morning...Conditions expected to
deteriorate to IFR from SW-NE between about 02-05Z. Snow is expected
at ABE/RDG while rain or a wintry mix is possible in the I-95
corridor, with rain expected at KACY and KMIV. Possibly a short
break in precip. early Saturday morning before a second round of
lighter precipitation later Saturday morning. NE winds generally
between 5-10 knots (slightly more towards the coast) backing to more
northerly by daybreak. High confidence in IFR conditions, Moderate
confidence in precipitation types,.

Saturday afternoon...Conditions improving to MVFR at most terminals
with no precipitation only lowered CIGS. A chance of VFR conditions
developing, particularly at the southern terminals, later in the
day. Winds backing from NW to light westerly through the afternoon.
Moderate confidence in flight categories.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday night-Sunday... MVFR ceilings potentially lingering at
least early Saturday night north of PHL. Gradual transition to VFR
later Saturday night. VFR Sunday morning, then deteriorating to MVFR
and potentially IFR from southwest to northeast late Sunday
afternoon. Light WNW winds through late morning Sunday, then
becoming light and variable.

Sunday night-Monday... IFR or lower conditions likely in rain
and snow Sunday night and early Monday morning. Snow most likely
near and northwest of PHL-ILG with rain more likely southeast
of there. Clearing conditions and a return to MVFR/VFR towards
Monday afternoon.

Monday night... VFR. WNW winds 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday-Wednesday... VFR. Westerly winds 5 to 10 kt turning WNW
Tuesday night. VFR and light WNW flow should linger for Wednesday as
well.

&&

.MARINE...
600 pm update: Added lower portions of Delaware Bay to the small
craft advisory, as gauges at Lewes and Cape May are approaching
or meeting criteria at this time. Maximum winds should be
observed through late tonight before diminishing below criteria
by dawn. The advisory here goes until 6 am.

Previous discussion...

SCA seas have already developed over much of the Atlantic waters
this afternoon and these 5+ foot seas will continue through most of
the day on Saturday. Northeasterly winds will increase this evening
into Saturday morning as the coastal low approaches, with gusts
decreasing below 25 knots by Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday night through Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions may
persist for a time Saturday night, mainly elevated seas on the
Atlantic coastal waters. Otherwise, the conditions are anticipated
to be below SCA criteria.

Sunday night through Monday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions
probable starting Sunday night as seas build, then northwest winds
gust to 25-30 knots Monday. Winds and seas should diminish to below
SCA levels Monday night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night... Generally sub-SCA conditions. Seas 2 to 4
ft. Winds gusting 15 to 20 kt, with gusts approaching 25 kt
possible late Tuesday night.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ431.

&&

Synopsis...O'Brien
Near Term...CMS/Carr
Short Term...Carr
Long Term...AMC/O'Brien
Aviation...AMC/Carr/O'Brien
Marine...AMC/CMS/Carr/O'Brien

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
400 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-022100-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
400 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey,
northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Another round of snow or mixed wintry precipitation tonight into
early Saturday will result in hazardous driving conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A winter storm Sunday night into early Monday has the potential to
produce significant snowfall and hazardous travel. Some areas could
also transition to a wintry mix for a time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-022100-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
400 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-022100-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
400 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.