Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

902 
WWUS41 KPHI 180851
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
351 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019


NJZ001-007>010-182100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190121T0000Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, and Somerville
351 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and
  snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to a
  combination of strong winds and ice accretions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-060>062-182100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton
351 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and
  snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to a
  combination of strong winds and ice accretions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

787 
WWUS41 KPHI 181338
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
838 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019



PAZ103-105-190145-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, 
and Perkasie
838 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Western Montgomery and Upper Bucks counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and 
  snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to 
  a combination of strong winds and ice accretions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

NJZ001-007>010-190145-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190121T0000Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, 
Flemington, and Somerville
838 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and 
  snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to 
  a combination of strong winds and ice accretions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-060>062-190145-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton
838 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and 
  snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to 
  a combination of strong winds and ice accretions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

469 
WWUS41 KPHI 182020
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019


PAZ054-055-060>062-191000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, 
Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton
320 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult on icy and
  snow- covered roads. Power outages will also be possible due to
  a combination of strong winds and ice accretions. Finally,
  bitter cold wind chills can be expected late Sunday into Monday
  as temperatures rapidly drop behind the system. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007-008-191000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190121T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, and Morristown
320 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  two tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Sussex, Warren and Morris counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult on icy and
  snow- covered roads. Power outages will also be possible due to
  a combination of strong winds and ice accretions. Finally,
  bitter cold wind chills can be expected late Sunday into Monday
  as temperatures rapidly drop behind the system. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ103-105-191000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, 
and Perkasie
320 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one 
  tenth to two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Upper Bucks and Western Montgomery counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and 
  snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to 
  a combination of strong winds and ice accretions. Finally,
  bitter cold wind chills can be expected late Sunday into Monday
  as temperatures rapidly drop behind the system. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

NJZ009-010-191000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-
Including the cities of Flemington and Somerville
320 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one 
  tenth to two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Hunterdon and Somerset counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and 
  snow-covered roads. Power outages may also be possible due to 
  a combination of strong winds and ice accretions. Finally,
  bitter cold wind chills can be expected late Sunday into Monday
  as temperatures rapidly drop behind the system. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

738 
WWUS41 KPHI 190821
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
321 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019



PAZ060>062-192030-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton
321 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  two tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Northampton, Lehigh and Berks counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult on icy and 
  snow- covered roads. Power outages will also be possible due 
  to a combination of strong winds and ice accretions. Finally, 
  bitter cold wind chills can be expected late Sunday into 
  Monday as temperatures rapidly drop behind the system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007-008-192030-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, and Morristown
321 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of one 
  tenth to two tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Morris, Sussex and Warren counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult on icy and 
  snow- covered roads. Power outages will also be possible due 
  to a combination of strong winds and ice accretions. Finally, 
  bitter cold wind chills can be expected late Sunday into 
  Monday as temperatures rapidly drop behind the system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ054-055-192030-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
321 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  two tenths of an inch expected.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult on icy and 
  snow- covered roads. Power outages will also be possible due 
  to a combination of strong winds and ice accretions. Finally, 
  bitter cold wind chills can be expected late Sunday into 
  Monday as temperatures rapidly drop behind the system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ009-010-192030-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
Hunterdon-Somerset-
Including the cities of Flemington and Somerville
321 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of 
  an inch expected.

* WHERE...Hunterdon and Somerset counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Even
  small amounts of ice can make travel treacherous. Power outages
  will also be possible due to a combination of strong winds and
  ice accretions. Finally, bitter cold wind chills can be expected
  late Sunday into Monday as temperatures rapidly drop behind the
  system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ103-105-192030-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, 
and Perkasie
321 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch expected.

* WHERE...Western Montgomery and Upper Bucks counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Even
  small amounts of ice can make travel treacherous. Power outages
  will also be possible due to a combination of strong winds and 
  ice accretions. Finally, bitter cold wind chills can be expected
  late Sunday into Monday as temperatures rapidly drop behind the
  system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ012-PAZ101-192030-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.190119T1800Z-190120T1800Z/
Middlesex-Western Chester-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Honey Brook, and Oxford
321 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze 
  expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Middlesex county. In Pennsylvania, 
  Western Chester county.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Even
  small amounts of ice can make travel treacherous. Power outages
  will also be possible due to a combination of strong winds and
  ice accretions. Finally, bitter cold wind chills can be expected
  late Sunday into Monday as temperatures rapidly drop behind the
  system.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
928 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging across the area today will move offshore
tonight. Low pressure and an associated cold front will cross the
area tonight and early Friday. More high pressure will follow for
Friday night and Saturday morning. A significant low pressure system
will cross the Middle Atlantic region Saturday night and Sunday.
Arctic high pressure will move in for the beginning of next week.
Another storm may affect the region for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM Update: Forecast is on track. Adjusted temperatures just
a bit to match current obs, then blended into existing forecast
based on a cloud cover over the area. Northerly winds are
starting to veer NE as expected, and a more easterly flow will
develop later today.

Previous discussion...

The cold front is finally making some progress across the CWA early
this morning, now generally south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Near and
upstream of the front, skies rapidly clear (at least initially), and
dew points begin to drop. Downstream, a residual low cloud deck is
keeping temperatures much warmer (generally around or above
freezing), and winds remain more westerly or even southwesterly.
Given that models are struggling with the progress of the front,
their temp/dew point output is not verifying well, especially where
the lower clouds have persisted most of the night so far. Have
needed to make several adjustments to both fields the past few
hours, but given the poor depiction of the front's progress so far,
have very little confidence in hourly temperatures/dew points the
rest of the night. Most assuredly, this low confidence also applies
to sky cover, with the low cloud deck to the south of the front
poorly modeled in general and smaller areas of low clouds to the
north not simulated well at all. Expecting an increase in high
clouds late tonight as a weak perturbation approaches the area.

Large-scale lift via differential cyclonic vorticity advection aloft
will continue to aid in the increase and lowering of cloud cover
during the day, combined with increasing low-level isentropic ascent
late. Any residual cold advection from the cold front passing
through the area early this morning will cease rather quickly, but
the increased cloud cover should prevent much surface warming. Once
again, weighted the max temperature forecast toward the cold (i.e.,
ECS and MET MOS) statistical guidance. There should be little
diurnal upswing today given the above.

No precipitation is expected through late this afternoon, though
some light snow should be on the western doorstep by early
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A weak midlevel perturbation will be moving through the region
tonight, and large-scale lift immediately downstream will generate
light snow for much of the night across the area. The low levels
will be dry initially, but fairly potent warm advection in
combination with some jet dynamics (via the left exit region of a
250-mb jet streak approaching the Southeast coast) will be the
sufficient ingredients for the precipitation. Surface temperatures
near and east of the urban corridor will be near freezing, so there
will likely be a mix of rain and snow in portions of New Jersey and
also Delmarva. To the north and west, conditions look cold enough
for snow throughout the event.

The consensus QPF is generally 0.1-0.2 inches, so snow amounts of 1-
2 inches seem probable northwest of the urban corridor, with lesser
amounts southeast where surface temperatures will be at least
flirting with freezing and precipitation may begin to mix with rain.
Notably, I sided with the somewhat colder guidance (NAM, RGEM, CMC,
ICON), as the GFS tends to be too aggressive scouring the near-
surface cold air too quickly. Confidence is on the low side, though,
since antecedent cloud cover may prevent much of a temperature fall
from today's readings (which should be above freezing southeast of
the Fall Line). Presumably, sublimation and wet-bulbing effects will
cool the low-level profiles sufficiently for mostly snow in the
urban corridor into adjacent portions of New Jersey southeast of I-
295. However, the stout warm advection will be warming the profile
with time, so some transition to rain should be expected near the
coast and (with time) farther to the northwest. As such, kept totals
generally less than an inch southeast of I-95 (to basically nothing
near the immediate coast). Not expecting much besides rain or snow,
though there is a chance the warming aloft could precede that at the
surface, giving a small window of sleet or freezing rain in Delmarva
and New Jersey. Any effects should be minimal and short-lived,
though, and confidence is not high enough for inclusion in the
forecast.

The timing of the precipitation looks to be after the Thursday
evening rush and before the Friday morning rush. Combined with the
sub-advisory snow totals expected, feel there is no need for
headlines with this event at this time, though cannot completely
rule it out in later forecasts. Untreated roads will likely be snow-
covered on Friday morning, however, so some travel impacts should be
expected, especially northwest of the urban corridor.

Precipitation rapidly moves eastward Friday morning, and the
afternoon should be dry everywhere. Sky cover is expected to
diminish slowly with time (except for the northwest CWA), and
temperatures will likely warm above freezing in most locations
by afternoon. I did keep the max temperature forecast on the low
side of guidance, given that snow may curtail some of the
diurnal heating and cloud cover may linger longer than currently
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure across the area for Friday night and early Saturday
will move away Saturday afternoon. Fair weather for these time
periods with increasing clouds Saturday. Temperatures a little below
normal with 20s Friday night and 30s (North) and low 40s (South) for
Saturday.

The big action of the long term begins later Saturday as
strengthening low pressure advances across the TN Valley then across
VA/NJ by Sunday morning. Significant moisture and dynamics will
produce abundant amounts of precipitation across the forecast area.
Overall (melted) QPF is in the 1.5 to 3.0 inch range for the
period ending 00z Monday. The 3 major OP models have the greatest
QPF across cntrl NJ with the EC having the greatest totals and the
Canadian and GFE about 25% to 50% less. Much of what will fall
across the Delaware Valley and S/E will be rain while the southern
Poconos and nrn NJ will have mostly snow. Significant totals are
expected for this (3rd) day event so while watches have not been
issued now (mainly not to confuse issues with the short/near
system), we are rather confident that they will be issued later
today or tonight, at least of the N/W areas. Snowfall in these areas
could easily be 6 to 10 inches thru Sunday. Other factors to
consider will be how much mixed precip (sleet or perhaps some
freezing rain) may occur Saturday afternoon and evening as the
warmer air arrives.

Behind the departing low Sunday, much colder air is ushered
southward across the region. Temperatures at dawn Sunday will be the
highs for the day and readings will fall 15 to 30 degrees by sunset,
reaching the teens (north) and 20s (S/E). Wind chills will become
dangerously cold by Sunday evening and a quick freeze of standing
water is expected. Prepare now (!) for several days of dangerous
cold, large icy patches on roads (even where precip is all rain) and
significant amounts of snow the N/W areas. A good reference to
prepare is : https:/www.ready.gov/winter-weather .

Dry but continued very cold weather is expected for Monday and
Tuesday. Snow showers across the southern Poconos can be expected at
times. Lows in in the single digits (N/W) to teens S/E). Highs in
the teens and low 20s. WInd chills sub-zero in most areas.

Moderating temperatures expected towards the middle of the week. A
new storm will be heading towards the area, however with more snow
possible N/W and rain S/E. A better chc for mixed precip will
develop if the colder air remains in the valleys Wed before the
precip arrives. Many details to iron out after the primary system
(this weekend) moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with increasing mid and high clouds through the
day. Light north winds becoming more easterly or southeasterly
by afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...Restrictions likely, with light snow (or a mix of
rain and snow southeast of the I-295 corridor) spreading across
the area between 01z and 06z. Snow is expected to reach the
Philly terminals between 03z and 06z. All sites will likely be
sub-VFR after 06z, with IFR VSBYs likely during the snow and
CIGs dropping to MVFR or worse overnight. VSBYs may be somewhat
better in general at MIV/ACY, where a rain-snow mix is more
likely. Light east winds. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering restrictions in the morning should slowly improve
to VFR during the afternoon. Precipitation should quickly end
by or just after 12z. Winds becoming west 5 to 15 kts. Moderate
confidence.

Friday night thru Saturday morning...VFR expected with
increasing clouds Saturday.

Saturday afternoon thru Sunday...IFR/LIFR with low CIGS/VSBYS
snow N/W and rain S/E. Strong gusty winds and LLWS expected.

Sunday night into Monday...VFR. Gusty winds. Very cold.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below criteria through tonight, with
directions becoming onshore this afternoon.

A rain-snow mix is expected overnight across the waters (mostly rain
offshore, but more likely a mix to start with on Delaware Bay).
Visibility restrictions will be likely, especially where it is
snowing.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering rain in the morning with some visibility
restrictions possible, improving by afternoon. Winds becoming west
or northwest 5 to 15 kts. Seas 3 feet or less.

Friday night into Saturday morning...Sub-SCA. Fair.

Saturday night...SCA. Rain and snow.

Sunday thru Monday...SCA. Gales possible. Rain then snow Sunday.
Freezing spray expected .

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...O'Hara
Near Term...CMS/Miketta
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...CMS/Miketta/O'Hara
Marine...CMS/Miketta/O'Hara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-180845-
New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
345 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New
Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A light accumulating snow is expected with the highest amounts in
the Lehigh Valley/Berks County, northwestern New Jersey and the
Poconos. Hazardous travel is possible and there could be some impact
on the Friday morning commute.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

For Saturday and Sunday, a significant winter storm moves across our
region, however the details including precipitation types and impacts
are still uncertain. A significant snow accumulation is probable
across the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey. A flash freeze
will occur on wet surfaces later Sunday afternoon and night as
arctic air rapidly overspreads our area.

Dangerous wind chills Sunday night through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report winter weather conditions by
standard operating procedures.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ014-020>027-180845-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
345 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey and southern New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

For Saturday and Sunday, a significant winter storm moves across our
region, however the details including precipitation types and
impacts are still uncertain. A flash freeze will occur on wet
surfaces later Sunday afternoon and night as arctic air rapidly
overspreads our area.

Dangerous wind chills Sunday night through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-180845-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
345 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Northwesterly gale force gusts and freezing spray are probable
Sunday night and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.