Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1111 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will lift northeastward near the New England
coast today into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday. High pressure
will build into the eastern U.S. early this week. A strong surface
low will move from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to east of New
England by Thursday, bringing a cold front through the area. Strong
high pressure will then build into the Northeast through the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1100 AM Update: The deformation band of precipitation is
beginning to weaken as expected. This trend is forecast to
continue over the next couple of hours as the system begins
pulling away from the area. Precip will lessen in intensity and
coverage significantly over the next 2-3 hours.

930 AM Update: The deformation band has developed just to the
west of the forecast area and will continue to move north and
east over the next few hours. Additionally, mesoanlysis
indicates an expansive and strong area of frontogenesis across
NE PA and northern NJ. Radar and satellite also indicate
intensifying convection in this region at this hour. Rain in
these areas may mix with or change over to moderate snow across
the Lehigh Valley, southern Poconos, and NW NJ. This snow may
suddenly cause reduced visibility and/or a quick coating of
snow. I've adjusted the snowfall forecast accordingly and
expanded the mention of rain/snow mix. Precipitation is still
forecast to move out of the area by the mid to late afternoon
hours.

As precip ends this afternoon, skies will clear and northwesterly
winds will increase with gusts in the 30-35 mph. Temperatures
will rise slowly into the low to mid 40s.

635 AM Update...Surface low now just off the coast of NJ at this
hour with mid level low over central PA and closing off. Of
concern, band of moderate to heavy precip has formed around the
mid level low just west of our eastern PA zones. Also, as the
column here is cooling, rain is transitioning over to snow.
Based on these conditions and trends, think this band of rain
changing to snow will makes it way east into Berks and Chester
Counties..potentially putting down quick snow amounts of a
coating up to locally an inch or so of snow towards the mid to
late morning period. Snow amounts were added/increased here and
reduced slightly over the southern Poconos as this band will
likely maintain more of a north/south orientation.

Previous Discussion...Forecast on track as primary low is
weakening over western PA while secondary low takes shape along
the coast over eastern Virginia. This low is developing in the
left exit region of a 110 knot jet streak at 300 mb with good
diffluence also noted in the height pattern at 500 mb ahead of a
sharp upper level trough. Widespread rain continues across the
forecast area but rates have generally been a tenth to a quarter
of an inch per hour or less so no real hydro concerns. However
the Poconos remain a problem area with wintry precip as temps
are hovering around or just below freezing in the higher
elevations. As of 3am, Mount Pocono still sitting at 31 with
freezing rain falling and they have already picked up around a
quarter of an inch of ice.

Heading through the next several hours, back edge of
heaviest/steadiest rain already pushing into eastern Virginia as
a bit of a dry slot is trying to form and as this pushes N/E
rain should start to diminish or at least becoming more spotty
and showery over the Delmarva and much of NJ by around sunrise.
This will occur as deepening secondary low will be near the
coast of NJ by 12z. Farther N/W over eastern PA and northern NJ
steadier precip will continue. Also, temps should tend to nudge
up by this time over the southern Poconos as E/SE winds try to
bring in milder air so all but the highest elevation should go
to all rain for a time around sunrise.

Beyond 12z, forecast gets a bit tricky as the sharp upper level
trough advances across the CWA through the morning and closes
off up through 500 mb while also becoming negatively tilted.
This will lead to rapid deepening of the coastal low as it
continues moving N/E towards southern New England with band of
moderate to heavy precip on the back side of the system as it
closes off aloft. This will clip mainly eastern PA and northern
NJ through the mid to late morning period. Most places in our
forecast area should continue to see just rain however as the
column cools due to the intense lift and cold advection behind
the system precip is likely to change to wet snow from west to
east over central PA into upstate/eastern NY and eventually the
southern Poconos by mid to late morning. At this time there
could be a brief clip of moderate to even heavy snow affecting
the Poconos and this could put down a quick inch or two of
slushy accumulation...especially in the highest elevations. Even
places farther south towards the Lehigh Valley and Berks County
could see some wet snow mix in but don't think it will really
stick here. Otherwise, precip should finally come to an end
across the region early this afternoon as the low pulls away.
Total rain amounts by this time will generally range from .75
inches near the coast to 1-1.5 inches from around the I-95
corridor and points north. Main story for this afternoon will
then be strong, gusty NW winds gusting 30-35 mph across the
region. Highs won't be much warmer than temps early this morning
due to CAA behind the departing low...mostly in the 40s with
some upper 30s across the southern Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
Winds ease through this evening into the overnight as the low
pressure system continues to pull away into the Canadian
Maritimes and a ridge of high pressure pushes towards the east
coast. Clearing will finally occur so it will be a dry but
chilly night with lows mainly in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM Sunday Update...Little change was made to the long term
forecast due to our attention on the current system. Also, upon
examining new guidance there doesn't appear to be much change
anyway as Monday and Tuesday still look to be quiet before the
next system affects the area by Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day
with the main issue with this system being strong winds. Please
see previous discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion... For Monday through Tuesday, the high
pressure to our south pushes offshore, with our area on the
northwestern edge. Winds weaken some trough Monday and Monday
night, although there will likely be somewhat of a steady breeze
during the Monday-Tuesday period. The weather will remain dry
however through Tuesday.

By Tuesday night, a warm front may begin to lift across the
area. This could lead to a slight chance of rain as a couple of
short wave/vorticity impulses move across the area a some
slightly enhanced moisture moves into the area. The better
chance of showers is expected to be Wednesday as the
moisture/lift combination increases during the day Wednesday as
a cold front moves across the area.

The big story for Wednesday-Thursday will be the increasing
winds ahead of and behind the cold front. Winds will become
gusty in the pre-frontal environment Wednesday, with gusts
reaching at least 25- 35 mph, possible with higher gusts.
However, the real punch of winds will likely be overnight
Wednesday behind the cold front as the strong cold air advection
takes place. Guidance is showing 45-55 knots above the surface,
and with very good mixing, wind gusts of at least 35-45 mph,
with possible higher peak gusts, are likely to occur. The wind
potential will begin to weaken by Thursday morning, and lower
through the day, although gusty winds will continue.

High pressure across central Canada on Friday will try to make
its way toward the area Friday into Saturday, but likely not
make it past the Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley. With low
pressure remaining offshore of eastern Canada, a decent
pressure gradient will remain across the area for Friday through
Saturday, keeping a steady wind and gusty conditions at times.

Depending on how fast this high breaks down to our north, a
warm front may begin to make its way into our area by late
Saturday into Saturday night, which could lead to chance of
precipitation. Depending on when the precipitation starts, some
wintry mixture could be possible for some areas.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Conditions vary between IFR and MVFR late this
morning, and will continue to slowly improve through the afternoon
hours as precipitation comes to an end. A return to VFR is expected
between 19z-21z for most places. Winds have shifted to the west to
northwest and will begin gusting 20-30 knots. High confidence in
improving conditions and winds, moderate confidence in timing.

Tonight...VFR with decreasing northwest winds. Possible gusts to 20+
kt in the evening. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night...Mainly VFR with light west to southwest
winds. High confidence.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with south to southwest winds up to around 10
kt. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night...Mainly VFR, though conditions may deteriorate
north/west of PHL as a system approaches the area. South winds 5 to
15 kt. Low confidence.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers,
especially north of PHL. Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with higher
gusts becoming west late. Gusts exceeding 30 kt possible, primarily
in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Strong west to northwest winds
possible. Gusts well in excess of 30 kt may occur, especially during
the day Thursday. High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will continue to increase into the afternoon as
low pressure draws near the coast and rapidly intensifies. Wind
gusts are already nearing gale force across Delaware Bay and the
southern ocean waters. This will spread northward as the low
pressure center continues to move away from the area.

By this afternoon, winds will be sustained around 25 kts with
frequent gale force gusts of 35-40 kts, especially over the
ocean waters. Seas will build to around 4-6 feet by the
afternoon as well. The Gale Warning continues to be in effect
for the period Sunday through 1 AM Monday morning. Beyond this
time, SCA conditions are likely for a few hours before
winds/seas drop below advisory levels by Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...

Monday-Tuesday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels through Tuesday.

Tuesday night...Winds expected to increase to advisory levels
overnight.

Wednesday-Thursday...Winds expected to increase to at least
gale force during the day Wedensday, and may approach storm
force overnight.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Latest forecast is on track, with a round of minor- to advisory-
level flooding expected in coastal sections of Middlesex and
Monmouth Counties this morning. A coastal flood advisory remains in
effect through 10 am. May see some spotty minor flooding farther to
the south (including the Delaware coast), but impacts are not
expected to be significant enough to warrant an advisory in these
areas. Winds should switch to offshore after this morning's high
tide, ending the coastal flooding threat for the rest of the weekend.

With the approach of the new moon early this week, astronomical
tides will be running high. Tidal departures of 0.5 to 1.5 feet
appear to be all that is needed for minor flooding. Fortunately, the
pattern is not particularly favorable for coastal flooding.
Nevertheless, the Monday and Tuesday morning high tides will require
monitoring, as current forecasts place many of the area's forecast
points close to or slightly above minor flooding thresholds.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

Synopsis...CMS
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Fitzsimmons/Robertson
Aviation...CMS/Robertson
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Robertson/Staarmann
Tides/Coastal Flooding...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1107 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

PAZ054-055-251615-
Carbon-Monroe-
1107 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A period of strong winds gusting to advisory criteria is possible
Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-101>103-105-251615-
New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
1107 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, northern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A period of strong winds gusting to advisory criteria is possible
Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012>027-PAZ070-071-104-106-
251615-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-
Lower Bucks-
1107 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New
Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A period of strong winds gusting to advisory criteria is possible
Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-251615-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1107 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale-force winds are likely again on Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Staarmann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 AM     FREEZING RAIN    POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICI 41.14N 75.38W
11/24/2019  M0.34 INCH       MONROE             PA   ASOS

            UPDATES PREVIOUS FREEZING RAIN REPORT FROM
            POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. STORM
            TOTAL SO FAR.

&&

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
957 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 AM     FREEZING RAIN    TOBYHANNA               41.18N 75.42W
11/24/2019  E0.10 INCH       MONROE             PA   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA, WITH PHOTOS, OF
            ABOUT 0.10 INCH OF RADIAL ICE ACCUMULATION
            ON BRANCHES.

&&

JEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
959 AM EST SUN NOV 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FREEZING RAIN    MONTAGUE                41.31N 74.76W
11/24/2019  E0.10 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
            ABOVE 1300 FEET IN WANTAGE AND MONTAGUE.
            PHOTOS SHOWED ABOUT 0.10 INCH OF RADIAL ICE
            ACCUMULATION ON BRANCHES.

&&

JEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1001 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

DEZ001-MDZ008-PAZ060-061-101>103-241815-
New Castle-Cecil-Berks-Lehigh-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Reading, Allentown,
Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville,
and Pottstown
1001 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

A band of mixed rain and snow will move across the area late
morning into the early afternoon. Bursts of snow may quickly
reduce visibility and cause slippery road conditions, especially
on bridges and overpasses. A quick coating of snow may also result
where snow persists longer. Be prepared for changing road
conditions.

Staarmann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1138 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

NJZ015-017>019-027-PAZ070-071-103>106-241730-
Northwestern Burlington-Camden-Mercer-Gloucester-Southeastern
Burlington-Lower Bucks-Upper Bucks-Eastern Montgomery-Western
Montgomery-Delaware-Philadelphia-
1138 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT
CAMDEN...SOUTHWESTERN MERCER... NORTHEASTERN
GLOUCESTER...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN BUCKS...PHILADELPHIA AND EASTERN DELAWARE
COUNTIES...

At 1136 AM EST, an area of heavy snow was located over Hatboro, or 11
miles north of Philadelphia, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Philadelphia, Trenton, Camden, Gloucester City, Cherry Hill,
Bensalem, Evesham, Mount Laurel, Ewing, Norristown, Willingboro,
Deptford, Voorhees, Medford, West Deptford, Glassboro, Lindenwold,
Lansdale, West Norriton and East Norriton.

This includes the following highways...
 Atlantic City Expressway between mile markers 37 and 44.
 Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 1.
 Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 16 and 61.
 Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 8 and 40.
 New Jersey Turnpike between exits 3 and 7A.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 3981 7461 3964 7516 4000 7543 4004 7539
      4005 7539 4007 7536 4006 7539 4023 7540
      4036 7532 4039 7511 4014 7458 4008 7456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 327DEG 27KT 4017 7513

Staarmann