Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
852 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will pass well to our north tonight. A cold
front will sink slowly southward through Thursday then high
pressure will return briefly through Friday. Another cold front
will approach the region by late Saturday. Strong high pressure
will build early in the week and dominate across the Mid-
Atlantic and Northeastern US through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Earlier convection that affected Berks county is now in a
weakened state across Chester and Delaware counties. A warning
was issued earlier when the storm was near Reading with a decent
core aloft. Now just one stronger cell is near Glenmoore PA with
some gusty winds, frequent lightning and downpours. Other showers
and a few tstms are across the southern Poconos and near Kent County,
MD. This activity is slowly weakening with the loss of daytime
heating however.

Overnight, a partly to mostly cloudy sky is expected. Conditions
will remain warm and muggy with lows mostly in the upper 60s
and lower 70s. The wind should become light and variable. Some
fog will form across the areas that received rains earlier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Thursday will feature a cold front dropping through our region from
the north. The boundary is expected to be approaching the Poconos
and northern New Jersey around daybreak. It should reach
southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey around midday, and
northeastern Maryland and southern Delaware by evening.

We will continue to mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for Thursday. Conditions should begin to stabilize gradually from
northeast to southwest across our region in the wake of the front
during the afternoon.

Thursday's high temperature forecast is a bit of a challenge due to
the expected cloud cover and the timing of the cold front. While
highs in the upper 80s seem likely for northeastern Maryland and
Delaware, we'll favor the lower and middle 80s for much of
southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, and the 70s in
our northern counties.

A light and variable wind should settle into the northeast around 10
MPH after the cold front passes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The main challenges for the medium-range forecast regard
precipitation chances with a weakening system moving into the
area this weekend.

Thursday's cold front should be far enough south on Friday for
colder air to filter in from the north/northeast. Clouds will likely
stick around, however, as onshore flow increases. With time, dry
advection from building high pressure to the north should reduce
cloudiness by Saturday. Expect temperatures to be 10-15 degrees
colder on Friday, with a nice rebound for Saturday as low-level flow
becomes more southerly.

The next system moves into the area Saturday and Saturday night, but
it faces a rather hostile environment in the eastern U.S. As a
fairly vigorous shortwave trough lifts northeastward into eastern
Canada on Saturday, a southward-extending cold front will impinge
upon downstream ridging. The strongest large-scale lift will remain
well north of the area, and the front will weaken and slow in
forward movement considerably as it approaches the northern Mid-
Atlantic. Frontal convergence/lift look to be fairly weak, and
midlevel lapse rates appear rather poor (owing to residual warmth
from the aforementioned downstream ridging). Models have trended
noticeably drier the past few cycles, and have kept PoPs low during
this period.

Thereafter, high pressure should build into the region, with a
lengthy warm and dry period expected. The large-scale pattern will
feature high-amplitude ridging in much of the central/eastern U.S.
by early next week, aided by a deep longwave trough entering the
western U.S. and a tropical wave/system lifting northwest into the
vicinity of the Gulf Coast. Although the ridging will likely
dominate for the early part of next week (high confidence), its
evolution thereafter will be strongly influenced by these two
systems. Thus, what transpires later next week is quite unclear
(given poor predictability at these time ranges) and subject to a
considerable amount of uncertainty for the next several model cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...Mainly VFR with local MVFR ceilings and visibility
values. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Thursday...Mainly VFR in the morning, with MVFR ceilings moving down
from the northeast in the afternoon. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms with brief periods of MVFR/IFR. Variable wind 6 knots
or less becoming northeast around 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...
Thursday night...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers
and storms as well as the development of lower clouds as
surface flow becomes more easterly with time. North winds
becoming northeast 5 to 15 kt. Low confidence.

Friday and Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible with
east-northeast winds 5 to 15 kt (stronger near the coast with
higher gusts) becoming light southeasterly overnight. Very low
confidence.

Saturday and Saturday night...Mainly VFR, though brief
restrictions may occur if showers/storms develop. Confidence is
low on if/where convection occurs. South to southwest winds 5 to
15 kt.

Sunday and Sunday night...Mainly VFR with light west winds.
Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front is forecast to drop southward across the coastal waters
of New Jersey and Delaware on Thursday. A southwest wind 10 to 15
knots into tonight should diminish to 5 to 10 knots for Thursday
morning before becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Waves on our ocean waters will range from 2 to 4 feet with waves on
Delaware Bay at 2 feet or less.

OUTLOOK...
Thursday...Sub-advisory winds/seas anticipated. A chance of
showers and storms.

Thursday night through Friday night...Advisory winds/seas are
expected, with east-northeast winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt
with gusts up to 30 kts. Seas may build to 5 to 7 feet by
Friday. Showers/storms possible Thursday night and Friday.

Saturday...Winds should be below advisory thresholds, but seas
may linger near 5 feet through the day.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Sub-advisory winds/seas
expected. A slight chance of showers Saturday night into early
Sunday.

RIP CURRENTS...
An underlying 10 to 11 second swell from the east and southeast
should maintain a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents through Thursday. A developing northeast wind on Thursday
afternoon will likely contribute to the moderate risk.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Staarmann
Near Term...PO/Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...CMS/Staarmann
Aviation...CMS/Iovino/Staarmann/PO
Marine...CMS/Iovino/Staarmann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-122000-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-122000-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance that at least a moderate risk of dangerous rip
currents continues through the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-122000-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
351 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Staarmann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE TEMPLE             40.40N 75.91W
09/11/2019                   BERKS              PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN
            SEVERAL AREAS NORTH OF READING. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

TCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
926 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NJZ001-007-008-120215-
Morris-Sussex-Warren-
926 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MORRIS...
SOUTHWESTERN SUSSEX AND NORTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 925 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Flatbrookville,
or 10 miles northwest of Newton, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Hopatcong, Mount Arlington, Franklin, Stanhope, Netcong,
Ogdensburg, Branchville, Andover, Flatbrookville, Lake Mohawk,
Greendell, Millbrook, Five Points, Crandon Lakes, Budd Lake,
Allamuchy-Panther Valley and Succasunna-Kenvil.

This includes Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 20 and
29.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4107 7450 4084 7469 4104 7503 4106 7502
      4109 7497 4110 7497 4109 7499 4110 7499
      4116 7490 4120 7487
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 301DEG 24KT 4111 7493

Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE WEST VINCENT TWP   40.14N 75.63W
09/11/2019                   CHESTER            PA   UTILITY COMPANY

            DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES ON HOLLOW ROAD
            NORTHEAST OF BIRCHRUNVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

CMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
951 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

PAZ060-061-120215-
Lehigh-Berks-
951 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BERKS AND SOUTHERN
LEHIGH COUNTIES...

At 950 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Kutztown, or 14
miles north of Reading, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Allentown, Reading, Emmaus, Kutztown, Hamburg, Fleetwood, Laureldale,
Topton, Leesport, Shoemakersville, Bally, Lyons, Lenhartsville,
Zionsville, Ancient Oaks, Claussville, Fairview Hgts, Mount Penn,
Macungie and Coopersburg.

This includes Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 23
and 28, and between mile markers 34 and 58.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4066 7567 4051 7537 4046 7544 4043 7550
      4045 7553 4041 7556 4028 7585 4051 7614
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 292DEG 16KT 4053 7583

Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1028 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE KUTZTOWN          40.51N 75.75W
09/11/2019                   BERKS              PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN MAXATAWNY TWP EAST
            OF KUTZTOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1037 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NJZ009-PAZ060-061-103>106-120315-
Hunterdon-Lower Bucks-Upper Bucks-Lehigh-Eastern Montgomery-Western
Montgomery-Berks-
1037 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL HUNTERDON...EAST
CENTRAL BERKS...CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH AND
NORTHWESTERN BUCKS COUNTIES...

At 1037 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Geryville, or
11 miles south of Allentown, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Allentown, Lansdale, Emmaus, Quakertown, Perkasie, Doylestown, Byram,
Souderton, Bedminster, Ambler, Chalfont, Tinicum, Hatfield, East
Greenville, Dublin, Schwenksville, Bally, Bechtelsville, Stockton and
Green Lane.

This includes Interstate 78 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 57
and 61.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4036 7574 4058 7551 4043 7496 4011 7522
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 287DEG 29KT 4043 7548

Davis