Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
904 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the region today. Weak high
pressure will then slide across to our north on Monday. A cold
front will drop down through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday,
crossing the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday before
stalling nearby through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes with the mid morning update. A weak cold
front will approach and move through our region today into
tonight. The favored time and area for storms will be late
afternoon into early evening along the front. However, as we
have seen the last few days, convective development is possible
earlier in the day along any surface convergence including the
sea breeze. Kept chance for showers in the 20 to 30 percent
range as the coverage will likely be very limited. The risk for
downbursts continues, so strong wind gusts as the front moves
through are possible. Temperatures are expected to max out in
the mid to upper 80s, perhaps reaching 90 in Philadelphia. With
dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, it will feel a
bit humid before the front moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As the front moves through during the evening hours, shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to end from northwest to
southeast. Expect lows in the upper 50s in the southern Poconos, and
in the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Patchy fog is also possible,
especially in those areas that have received heavy rain with the
front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Typical mid-summer weather will continue across the Middle Atlantic
this week with mostly above normal temperatures and scattered showers
and tstms most days. A change in the pattern is foreseen next weekend
when temperatures will drop back to near normal.

Monday/Monday night...Probably one of the drier days (most areas)
with weak high pressure across the area. We will still have some
chc pops across Delmarva near the stalled front however. Temperatures
a few degrees above normal, but not excessively humid.

Tue thru Thu...Unsettled as a cold front drops thru the area. Warm
and humid, especially Wednesday when sultry air from the Delmarva
overspreads the area. Chc pops Tue and high chc pops for Wed with
a good chance for tstms also. Heavy rain possible with the humid
air and slow moving front.

Thu night and into the weekend...Lesser chances for showers as
high pressure from the north builds in. Warm temperatures Fri
then cooler readings arrive for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Today...Mostly VFR conditions. However, localized MVFR or even
IFR conditions are possible this afternoon with isolated and
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Light and variable winds,
becoming west to northwest 4-8 knots. An afternoon sea breeze
should allow for the winds to become southerly at ACY.

Tonight..Mainly VFR conditions, especially after the front moves
through. Light winds.

Outlook...
Monday...Mostly VFR. Sct showers/tstms especially across Delmarva.
Monday night...Mostly VFR. Patchy fog psbl.
Tue thru Thu...VFR except for sct tstms with lower CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight...Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small
Craft advisory conditions.

Outlook...

Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions into next week.
Winds and seas will increase ahead of a cold front Tue night and Wed
when tstms are possible. We will keep wind gusts and seas capped at
20 kts/4 ft for now.

Rip Currents...
The risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents remains low
through today due to low wave heights in the surf zone.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter located in Howell, New Jersey
(Station WXM-60) was damaged during the storms on July 22. As a
result, the radio signal is not transmitting properly. Repairs
have been scheduled for Monday, August 5, and should be
completed by the afternoon.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Meola
Near Term...Johnson/Miketta
Short Term...Miketta
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...Johnson/Miketta/O'Hara
Marine...Miketta/O'Hara
Equipment...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-050715-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
308 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-050715-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
308 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-050715-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
308 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1206 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

DEZ003-004-041645-
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-
1206 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SUSSEX
COUNTY...

At 1206 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Millsboro to near Laurel. Movement
was southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Millsboro, Laurel, Selbyville, Dagsboro, Millville, Gumboro, Long
Neck, Ocean View, Frankford and South Bethany.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3845 7551 3855 7566 3864 7521 3861 7513
      3859 7518 3859 7521 3858 7518 3857 7518
      3860 7510 3858 7511 3859 7506 3845 7505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 299DEG 13KT 3860 7524 3854 7551

JO/SJ