Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
939 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking to our north will pull a strong cold
front across our area tonight with a secondary cold front moving
through during the day on Sunday. High pressure will build in
for Monday. A weak disturbance and associated cold front will
then move through Tuesday before stalling just to our south
Wednesday into Thursday. The front may potentially lift back to
our north as a warm front on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
930 pm update: Significant severe-weather event is coming to a
close across the area. Unfortunately, numerous instances of
wind damage and hail up to quarter size have been reported
across the area this afternoon/evening. Some areas appear to
have been particularly hard hit, especially Chester/Montgomery
Counties in Pennsylvania eastward to Burlington County in New
Jersey.

Severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to expire. However,
cannot rule out a rogue shower/storm through the overnight
hours, especially west of the Delaware River. Have modified
PoPs/Wx grids to account for this threat. Made significant
changes to temperatures/dew points as well, given aftereffects
of rain-cooled air.

Previous discussion...

A closed low will move into the Northeast U.S. overnight
tonight. At the same time, surface low pressure will be exiting
New England as its cold front settles south. This front will
probably clear much of our area by daybreak Sunday.

Thunderstorms should settle south and east of our area by late
evening. The leading edge of more pronounced height falls
arriving later this evening into the overnight may result in
some redevelopment of showers or thunder behind the main line.

A wind shift to the west and northwest will occur behind the
cold front. However the surface flow should go light and much
of the area will continue to see dewpoints in the middle to
upper 60s. This will result in a muggy night. Patchy fog cannot
be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As the mid-lvl trough axis passes just north of the
area Sunday, there will be another chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially PA Turnpike/I-195 north. Despite
increasing mid-lvl lapse rates as the mid-lvl cold pool passes
overhead, don't think these storms will be particularly strong
as the low-lvls will be drier than Saturday. High temperatures
will generally be in the 80s with breezy northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Synoptic Overview:

The extended period begins with a mid-lvl closed low diving
southeastward through the area which kick off a second round of
cold advection (mostly aloft). Upstream of this feature a SW-NE
oriented ridge will prevail over the Central US, with an
inverted trough residing south of the ridge over Texas. The
central-US ridge axis relocates southeastward Monday into
Tuesday, eventually centering itself over the southeastern US as
broad troughing develops over the Western US. Various
shortwaves moving over-top the eastern US ridge will likely
impact the area starting Tuesday morning, with the flow
generally becoming more zonal as the ridge axis flattens. A
stalled boundary looks to set up near the area by the middle of
next week with various convectively-enhanced shortwaves likely
sparking diurnal convection over our area.

Dailies:

Monday...High pressure briefly builds in SW of the area on
Monday resulting in a quiet day. High temperatures will likely
be similar to Sunday, with lighter winds and less clouds.

Monday night/Tuesday...A shortwave will pass through the area
Monday night into early Tuesday morning with a brief round of
showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms) possible. Diurnal
timing does not favor particularly strong storms and the system
should be progressive with precipitation largely out of the area
by Tuesday afternoon. Highs will be about 5 degrees warmer than
Monday with a weak cold front pushing through later in the day.

Wednesday-Saturday...Wednesday will likely be dry and warm for
most places, although there may be a chance of storms late in
the day over Delmarva. Moisture will increase Thursday and this
moisture combined with convectively-enhanced mid-lvl waves, and
a nearby boundary will likely result in (at least) scattered
convection Thursday/Friday (and potentially into the weekend).
It looks like it will be fairly muggy with dewpoints around 70s
and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Showers and thunderstorms this evening, especially
from the PHL area south and east with MVFR/IFR conditions for a
time. After this evening, local MVFR visibility cannot be ruled
out for a time due to fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. West
winds diminishing to near 5 knots, then becoming northwest or
even locally light and variable.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with periods of mid-lvl (4-5k ft.) cloud
cover. NW increasing to around 15 kts, with gusts 20-30kts.

Outlook...
Sunday night...VFR with N/NW winds diminishing to 5-10 knots or
less.

Monday...VFR with light winds around 5 knots or less.

Monday night - Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A shower or thunderstorm
possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. West winds 5-10
knots becoming NW Tuesday.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...Mainly VFR with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria. Southwesterly winds will diminish some
tonight and become west to west-northwest. Some thunderstorms
this evening may produce local wind gusts of 34 knots or
higher.

Sunday...SCA conditions will be approached. Winds near the
shore may gust near 20-25kts Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...
Sunday night...SCA conditions will be approached. Winds near
the shore may gust near 20-25kts Sunday evening.

Monday through Wednesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected with 3-4
seas Monday decreasing to 2-3 ft for Wednesday.

Rip Currents...
There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents on Sunday with offshore winds and waves (6-9 second
period) in the surf zone around 2 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Carr/Kruzdlo
Near Term...CMS/Kruzdlo
Short Term...Kruzdlo
Long Term...Carr
Aviation...Carr/Kruzdlo
Marine...Carr/Kruzdlo

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
653 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>018-021-PAZ060-070-071-101>104-302300-
New Castle-Cecil-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Cumberland-Berks-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-
653 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ002-003-MDZ012-015-019-020-302300-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
653 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware and northeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-019-020-022-023-027-PAZ054-055-061-062-
105-106-302300-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Mercer-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
653 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ014-024>026-302300-
Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-
653 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ004-302300-
Delaware Beaches-
653 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ450>455-302300-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
653 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-302300-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
653 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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