Small Craft Advisory 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

862 
WHUS71 KPHI 022042
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 PM EST Wed Jan 2 2019


ANZ450>455-031000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0002.190103T1400Z-190103T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
342 PM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25
  kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-031000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0002.190103T1400Z-190103T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
342 PM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25
  kt. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

921 
WHUS71 KPHI 030832
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
332 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

ANZ450>455-032300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0002.190103T1400Z-190103T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
332 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-032300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0002.190103T1400Z-190103T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
332 AM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

CMS

024 
WHUS71 KPHI 032022
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
322 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019


ANZ430-431-032130-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190103T2300Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
322 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Small Craft Advisory.

Winds gusts have diminished and should remain below Small Craft 
criteria overnight.

$$

ANZ450>455-032300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190103T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
322 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds around 15 kt with gusts up to
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

784 
WHUS71 KPHI 032248
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
548 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

ANZ450>455-040000-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190103T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
548 PM EST Thu Jan 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

Wind gusts have diminished and should remain below Small Craft 
criteria overnight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes continues to drift out
to sea. Meanwhile, high pressure builds into the Northeast
today, then moves offshore tonight. Low pressure moves into the
Mid-Atlantic late tonight, then passes south of Delmarva late
tonight and Thursday morning. High pressure returns for the end
of the week, and then low pressure impacts the area this
weekend. Another system may affect the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure is forecast to slide from eastern Ontario to the
waters off New England today. The air mass will bring dry
weather and seasonable temperatures to our region.

High clouds streaming northeastward from the south central
states will remain overhead for much of the day. Also, there
will be patches of stratocumulus.

High temperatures are expected to range from the lower 30s in
the Poconos to the middle 40s in southern Delaware. A light
north to northeast wind is forecast to veer to the east and
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Low pressure is forecast to develop off the North Carolina
coast late today, before strengthening and moving northeastward
tonight and Thursday. The low is expected to bring rain to our
region, from around the Interstate 95 Corridor southeastward,
for tonight into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts are
anticipated to range from a few hundredths of an inch along the
Interstate 95 Corridor to around a quarter inch in southern
Delaware.

Meanwhile, a mid level short wave that was located over the
northern Great Plains early this morning will begin to approach
our region from the northwest tonight. Moisture ahead of the
feature is expected to bring some very light snow and perhaps
some light rain to parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northern
New Jersey at that time. Snowfall amounts are anticipated to be
only a few tenths of an inch at most.

The axis of the mid level short wave trough is forecast to pass
overhead on Thursday afternoon, pushing the precipitation
farther off the coast. There should be a decrease in cloud cover
in the wake of the trough axis.

A light and variable wind is anticipated for tonight. The wind
is expected to settle into the northwest around 10 to 15 MPH on
Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to fall into the 35 to 40 degree
range tonight from the Interstate 95 Corridor southeastward.
Lows should be in the upper 20s to the middle 30s in areas to
the northwest. Highs on Thursday will likely be mainly in the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather continues for the Long Term period, as several
systems will affect the region.

High pressure builds in from the west Thursday evening. The
center of the high then moves over the Mid-Atlantic by Friday
morning before moving out to sea Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, closed H5 low moves into the Ark-LA-Tex area
Thursday night, then tracks to the north and east on Friday.
Surface low pressure develops over the Southeast U.S., and that
low lifts to the north and east towards the Mid-Atlantic Friday
night. A warm front develops out ahead of that low and lifts
into the region Friday night as the low moves into the Mid-
Atlantic.

Overrunning precip develops out ahead of this system, and for
most of the region, temperatures will be warm enough to support
all rain. The question will be for far northern zones, the
southern Poconos and far northwest NJ, as the position of the
high could result in cold air damming could keep temperatures
below freezing. As that mid-level warm air lifts northward,
could have a period, possibly even a prolonged period, of a
wintry mix, including a period of freezing rain.

Precip continues through Saturday as the low tracks south and
east of NJ, then moves out to sea. Overall liquid QPF amounts so
far look to be around 1/4-1/2" north of the Fall Line and
1/2-3/4" south of the Fall Line.

High pressure then builds in from the west Saturday night, and
then high builds over the region Sunday before moving out to sea
Sunday night.

Another storm system will then gear up to affect the region
starting Monday night and continuing in Tuesday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF have high pressure moving into eastern Canada, and
this would result in more of the way of cold air being locked
into the region with the approach of this system. This could
result in more in the way of frozen precip in the region, but
confidence low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with high clouds and some patchy stratocumulus.
North to northeast wind 8 knots or less, becoming east to
southeast.

Tonight...Conditions gradually lowering to MVFR and IFR with
the arrival of some light precipitation after 01Z. The
precipitation should be in the form of rain at KPHL, KPNE, KILG,
KMIV and KACY. Snow or a mix of snow and rain is anticipated at
KRDG and KABE. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Thursday...Conditions improving to VFR in the morning, as the
light precipitation moves away to our east. Northwest wind
increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night...VFR. Light W-SW winds.

Friday...VFR initially, then CIGs lower late in the day. VSBY
restrictions in -RA south of KPHL possible late in the day.

Friday night through Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain/fog. Low
chance for wintry mix at KABE. East winds less than 10 kt,
becoming NW late Saturday.

Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. NW winds 10-15 kt with
20-25 kt gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure passing to the north and northeast of the coastal
waters today will bring a north to northeast wind around 10 to
15 knots for this morning, and an east to southeast wind around
10 knots for this afternoon.

The wind is expected to veer from the southeast to the
southwest tonight around 10 knots.

A northwest wind is forecast to increase to 15 to 20 knots on
Thursday with gusts in excess of 25 knots. As a result, we have
issued a Small Craft Advisory for Thursday. It runs from 9:00 AM
until 6:00 PM.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions.

Friday night through Saturday night...SCA conditions starting
on Saturday. VSBY restrictions in rain/fog.

Sunday...Conditions subside to sub-SCA criteria.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Iovino/MPS
Aviation...Iovino/MPS
Marine...Iovino/MPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-030830-
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
316 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A storm system Friday night through saturday may result in a wintry
mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-071-030830-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
316 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, southern New
Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another wet storm will affect the region late Friday and Saturday.
Rainfall may be heavy at times, possibly leading to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-101>106-030830-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
316 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-030830-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
316 AM EST Wed Jan 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

MPS