Alert archive / New Jersey / Small Craft Advisories in 2019
Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this small craft advisory at Jan 30, 2019, 11:48 PM EST. It was in force for 22 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 30, 2019, 11:48 PM EST (04:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 31, 2019, 9:31 PM EST
- In force
- 22 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
The text
As transmitted.
219 WHUS71 KPHI 310448 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ANZ452-453-311800- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.190131T0448Z-190201T0300Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 10 PM EST Thursday. The Gale Warning has been cancelled. * FREEZING SPRAY...Moderate rates of ice accretion through mid- morning Thursday. * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to sea or enter the advisory area. Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not impacted due to adverse weather conditions. && $$ ANZ450-451-311800- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.190131T0448Z-190201T0900Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 4 AM EST Friday. The Gale Warning has been cancelled. * FREEZING SPRAY...Moderate rates of ice accretion through mid- morning Thursday. * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to sea or enter the advisory area. Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not impacted due to adverse weather conditions. && $$ ANZ454-455-311800- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.190131T0448Z-190131T2100Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 4 PM EST Thursday. The Gale Warning has been cancelled. * FREEZING SPRAY...Moderate rates of ice accretion through mid- morning Thursday. * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to sea or enter the advisory area. Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not impacted due to adverse weather conditions. && $$ ANZ430-431-311800- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190131T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.190131T0448Z-190131T2100Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 4 PM EST Thursday. The Gale Warning has been cancelled. * FREEZING SPRAY...Moderate rates of ice accretion through mid- morning Thursday. * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to sea or enter the advisory area. Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not impacted due to adverse weather conditions. && $$ MPS
5 follow-up statements
738 WHUS71 KPHI 310816 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 316 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ANZ452-453-312300- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0300Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 316 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * FREEZING SPRAY...Moderate rates of ice accretion through mid- morning Thursday. * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to sea or enter the advisory area. Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not impacted due to adverse weather conditions. && $$ ANZ450-451-312300- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0900Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 316 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * FREEZING SPRAY...Moderate rates of ice accretion through mid- morning Thursday. * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to sea or enter the advisory area. Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not impacted due to adverse weather conditions. && $$ ANZ454-455-312100- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190131T2100Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 316 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * FREEZING SPRAY...Moderate rates of ice accretion through mid- morning Thursday. * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to sea or enter the advisory area. Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not impacted due to adverse weather conditions. && $$ ANZ430-431-312100- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190131T2100Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 316 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING... * FREEZING SPRAY...Moderate rates of ice accretion through mid- morning Thursday. * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to sea or enter the advisory area. Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not impacted due to adverse weather conditions. && $$ MPS
926 WHUS71 KPHI 311502 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1002 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ANZ452-453-010300- /O.EXP.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0300Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 1002 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ450-451-010400- /O.EXP.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0900Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 1002 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ454-455-312100- /O.EXP.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190131T2100Z/ Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 1002 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ430-431-312100- /O.EXP.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190131T1500Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190131T2100Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 1002 AM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
959 WHUS71 KPHI 312021 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 321 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ANZ430-431-454-455-312130- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190131T2100Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 321 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the Small Craft Advisory. $$ ANZ452-453-010300- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0300Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 321 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ450-451-010900- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0900Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 321 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
340 WHUS71 KPHI 312321 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 621 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ANZ452-453-010030- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0300Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 621 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the Small Craft Advisory. The conditions are expected to remain below advisory criteria, therefore the advisory has been cancelled. $$ ANZ450-451-010900- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0900Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 621 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
762 WHUS71 KPHI 010231 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 931 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ANZ450-451-010345- /O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-190201T0900Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 931 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the Small Craft Advisory. The winds are expected to diminish through the overnight and seas will continue to be below 5 feet, therefore the advisory has been cancelled. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 30, 9:30 PM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 30, 9:30 PM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
930 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A bitterly cold airmass across the region tonight through Thursday.
A weak system should bring some light snow Friday afternoon and
evening especially across the southern parts of the region. High
pressure returns for Saturday and Sunday with gradually moderating
temperatures. By early next week, the weather may turn more
unsettled with a couple of disturbances nearby, however well above
average temperatures are anticipated during that time.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure is east of Hudson Bay Canada this evening with a
frontal boundary southwestward from it into the upper Great Lakes
region. Meanwhile, the center of arctic high pressure is from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Strong cold air advection
in the wake of the arctic front of earlier continues this evening
across our area, although the strongest of this looks to be starting
to shift just offshore now. An analysis shows -18C to -26C air at
850 mb over our area with a core of -28C air just to our west. This
has translated to surface temperatures free falling with most of the
region now in the teens and single numbers (well below zero already
at Mount Pocono). The bitterly cold air will continue and while
the winds will ease through the night, there will still be dangerous
wind chills (Wind Chill Warning continues for the Poconos with
a Wind Chill Advisory elsewhere). The lessening of the winds is
already underway and this will reduce the blowing snow component
that was experienced in many parts of eastern PA and northwestern
NJ. The winds have diminished below advisory criteria for the
last hour or so, therefore the Wind Advisory was cancelled.
A lack of clouds are anticipated through the night given how dry the
airmass is. For the 930 PM update, temperatures and dew points were
adjusted some to catch them up to the current observations. A few
record low temperatures early Thursday morning will be possible,
however looks like most spots fall short.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Arctic high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Thursday morning
will shift off the Delmarva coast by sunset.
Winds will only diminish slowly during the course of the day. Expect
west winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
Highs will only range from the single digits across the Poconos to
the low to mid 20s across southern DE. In between, teens will be the
rule.
Wind chills in the morning will be as low as -25 to -30 in the
southern Poconos, and otherwise from around -5 to -15. By late
afternoon, wind chills will struggle to get out of the single
digits, and will struggle to rise above zero degrees north and west
of the Fall Line.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview...
We remain on track for a major pattern change as we head into the
end of the week and the weekend. Broad eastern US trough which has
dominated the recent pattern will move away, as will the lobe of the
polar vortex bringing the current Arctic blast. West Coast ridging
will overspread the central and eastern US, and while losing
amplitude initially it looks like it will rebuild over the East.
Regardless, dramatic height rises will favor a transition to much
warmer weather. The upper level changes will take time to reach the
surface, however, thanks to the influence of multiple Canadian high
pressure systems. Eventually, the warm air will win out and we will
see well above normal temperatures by early next week. The next
several days will also be marked by generally quiet weather in terms
of major storminess. We will see a largely zonal, split flow regime
without a lot of impact from features in either stream. A modest
northern stream shortwave will likely bring some light snow Friday,
and a nearby boundary could bring a couple minor precipitation
threats early next week. But all in all, for this time of year, it
will be a pleasantly mild and quiet period once the Arctic air pulls
away.
Dailies...
Thursday night... The trough will be pulling away, but a large
Canadian high pressure will be directly overhead. So expecting a
night of good radiational cooling and another round of very cold
temperatures, only slightly warmer than the prior night, though
without the same level of wind chills. Single digit lows for most
with readings near to below zero in the Poconos and norther NJ.
Friday-Friday night... Low level Canadian high pressure remains
nearby. Modest WAA in the low levels, but it will be another chilly
day. We will also have a shortwave approaching from the northwest.
This is not a strong disturbance and has limited lift, but some
light snow is likely Friday afternoon and evening especially in
central and southern parts of the area. Accumulations look to be
near or below an inch.
Saturday-Saturday night... A reinforcing Canadian high moves in from
the northwest. We see more substantial height rises this period with
growing WAA. However, the low level cold associated with the high
pressure will mean temperatures, while warmer than prior days,
likely still fail to reach average on Saturday. Another chilly
night as well. Dry weather prevails.
Sunday-Sunday night... High pressure remains nearby, and ridging
begins to crest over our region. Strong temperature gradient along
the northern edge of the ridge and developing low over the central
US will promote cloudiness and light precipitation activity within
the ridge. Presently appears most of the light precipitation should
remain to our north, but enhanced cloudiness is likely with possibly
some light rain or mix in northern areas. Temperatures may finally
struggle up to normal on Sunday, though a wedge of low level cooler
air may remain in place especially across the Poconos.
Monday-Wednesday... Low pressure intensifies over the northern
Plains and Great Lakes this period as strong ridging (500mb heights
+1 to +2 SD) remains dominant over the East. We will get into the
warm sector of the low, and with Canadian high pressure finally
pulling away, this is when we will see the truly above normal
temperatures. There are significant model differences on timing of
features during this period. As that first low pressure moves far to
our northwest, another may follow in close succession on a similar
or somewhat more southeastward track. Lack of significant thermal
gradients in between these features lowers confidence in timings and
outcomes. Some rain showers will be possible as a weak boundary from
the first low crosses by, which would probably be around Monday
night or Tuesday. Temperatures by Monday climb into the 50s at least
in southern NJ and Delmarva, with almost everyone seeing those
values by Tuesday and near 60 degree readings possible by then in
Delmarva. More rain may be possible by Wednesday if that second low
develops, but confidence is low here. The main idea is that early
next week looks mild, a little unsettled, but not with any major
storminess or winter weather.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight...VFR. West-northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 25
knots, diminishing to 5-10 knots.
Thursday...VFR. West-northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots, diminishing and becoming west-southwest toward
evening.
OUTLOOK...
Thursday night... VFR. Light NW winds.
Friday-Friday night... MVFR conditions likely with areas of IFR
possible Friday afternoon and evening with light snow especially
near and south of a line from RDG to PNE. Winds light from the west,
becoming light and variable Friday night. VFR conditions return by
midnight Friday.
Saturday-Saturday night... VFR. Light west to southwest winds.
Sunday-Sunday night... MVFR possible especially from TTN northward,
with localized IFR also possible in these areas. PHL and southward
should stay mostly VFR.
Monday... MVFR or IFR possible. Low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale Warning continues through at least Midnight as a bitterly cold
airmass continues to advect across the area. The winds are expected
to ease some overnight, however a Small Craft Advisory will then be
needed through much of Thursday. A Freezing Spray Advisory remains
in effect through mid-morning Thursday as moderate rates of ice
accretion are occurring. Heavy ice accretion rates may occur in
Delaware Bay especially, however this may be shorter in duration
and potentially more localized.
Outlook...
Thursday night... SCA wind gusts possible early off northern NJ,
then diminishing to sub-SCA. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Freezing spray possible.
Friday-Monday... Quiet marine weather. Sub-SCA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record Temperatures for 1/31:
Coldest Maximum Coldest Minimum
Site
ABE 16/1936 -9/1948
ACY 22/1966 0/1948
PHL 21/1935 3/1948
ILG 19/1935 3/1948
RDG 19/1936 -6/1905
TTN 19/1936 -1/1920
MPO 8/1920 -15/1908
GED 23/1948 1/1948
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for PAZ060>062-
070-071-101>106.
Wind Chill Warning until 4 PM EST Thursday for PAZ054-055.
NJ...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NJZ001-
007>010-012>027.
DE...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for DEZ001.
Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for DEZ002>004.
MD...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ008.
Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-
431-450>455.
Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
Synopsis...O'Brien
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Kruzdlo
Long Term...O'Brien
Aviation...Gorse/O'Brien
Marine...Gorse/O'Brien
Climate...Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 30, 11:48 PM EST, 0 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106- 010500- New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex- Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware- Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery- Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-010500- Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot- Caroline- 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern Delaware and northeast Maryland. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ054-055-010500- Carbon-Monroe- 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ430-431-450>455-010500- Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 1148 PM EST Wed Jan 30 2019 ...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and Delaware Bay Waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Freezing Spray Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Freezing Spray Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. MPS
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New Jersey, 2019Every small craft advisory in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.