Small Craft Advisory 105, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

153 
WHUS71 KPHI 090832
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
332 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

ANZ451>455-092145-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.191209T1100Z-191210T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
332 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450-092145-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.191209T1400Z-191210T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
332 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-092145-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.191210T0000Z-191210T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
332 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

797 
WHUS71 KPHI 091148
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
648 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

ANZ451>455-100100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191210T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
648 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450-100100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.191209T1400Z-191210T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
648 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  6 to 9 feet expected.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-100100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.191210T0000Z-191210T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
648 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

426 
WHUS71 KPHI 092028
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
328 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

ANZ451>455-100930-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191210T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
328 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and
  seas 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450-100930-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191210T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
328 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-100930-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.191210T0000Z-191210T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
328 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt 
  expected.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

678 
WHUS71 KPHI 100239
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
939 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

ANZ451>455-101545-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191210T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
939 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450-101545-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191210T2300Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
939 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ 
  out 20 nm.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-101100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191210T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
939 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

946 
WHUS71 KPHI 100850
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
350 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

ANZ430-431-101000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191210T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
350 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Waves and winds continue to diminsh through the rest of the 
overnight hours and frequent gusts of 25 knots are no longer 
expected over the Delaware Bay.

$$

ANZ450>455-102200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191211T0900Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
350 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 
  5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Atlantic coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

135 
WHUS71 KPHI 102045
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

ANZ450>455-111000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191212T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
345 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and 
  seas 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Atlantic coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and seas will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Staarmann

365 
WHUS71 KPHI 110924
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
424 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

ANZ450>455-112230-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191212T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
424 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

* WHERE...Portions of Atlantic coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

820 
WHUS71 KPHI 112024
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
324 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

ANZ430-431-120930-
/O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.191211T2100Z-191212T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
324 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters 

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>455-120930-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191212T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
324 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

* WHERE...Portions of Atlantic coastal waters.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

777 
WHUS71 KPHI 120845
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

ANZ430-431-121100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191212T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
345 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to 
  Slaughter Beach DE and Delaware Bay waters south of East Point 
  NJ to Slaughter Beach DE.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>455-121100-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191212T1100Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
345 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

* WHERE...Portions of Atlantic coastal waters. 

* WHEN...Until 6 AM EST early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

148 
WHUS71 KPHI 121115
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
615 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

ANZ430-431-450>455-121215-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0105.000000T0000Z-191212T1100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
615 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds and Waves continue to diminish and small craft advisory
conditions are no longer anticipated through the day today.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the region Monday as an area of low
pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. A cold front associated
with that low will then approach and cross the region Tuesday. A
wave of low pressure tracking along the front will likely affect the
mid-Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong high pressure will
build in Thursday and into Friday. Another low pressure system may
approach the region next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

Clouds will continue to lower and thicken over the region overnight.
Temperatures have reached their mins this evening and will remain
nearly steady or slowly rise overnight as clouds and precipitation
move into the region. Light rain and drizzle will begin to
overspread the region from south to north well after midnight,
becoming a steady rain by daybreak. Winds will remain light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...

Things are not shaping up to be the best weather day Monday as low
pressure to our west moves closer toward the mid-Atlantic and
southerly flow ahead of the system draws moister air into the
region. An initial vorticity impulse along the warm front will lead
to an initial round of moderate rainfall across the region through
the morning hours, especially from I-95 and points east. Conditions
may turn a little more showery into the afternoon before a broader
area of steady rain moves eastward from central Pennsylvania. At
this point, all rain is forecast for the initial portion of this
system. The one uplifting aspect is that the highs will trend much
warmer tomorrow, reaching into the 50s and 60s across the region
(upper 40s across the Poconos). Southerly winds will also begin to
trend upwards with gusts from 20-25 mph possible by the evening and
into the overnight hours. Total rainfall through this period is
expected to near an inch, but given the extended duration, this is
not expected to result in any more than localized nuisance
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Tuesday...As mentioned by the previous shift, we should start the
day in the warm sector. However, some guidance trended faster with
the front (it may now cross our region mid day, and be off shore as
early as mid afternoon), which brings uncertainty into how long we
will be in the dry slot on Tuesday morning. However, I am always a
bit cautious of a front crossing during the middle of the day when
the mid and upper level trough lags so far behind the front at the
surface. Therefore, I made few changes to the temperatures and PoPs
during the day on Tuesday. Even if the front does arrive by mid day,
expect any precipitation (even late Tuesday afternoon) to be all
rain.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Still considerable uncertainty through
this period. The front should progress further off shore, but the
mid and upper level trough digs in closer to the region, so most
guidance depicts precipitation continuing overnight and through much
of the day on Wednesday. Without significant cyclogensis just off
shore, it would be difficult to get that much precipitation behind
the front in this kind of pattern as we should have persistent dry
air advection behind the front. If we do have precipitation into
Wednesday morning thanks to significant cold air advection we should
see precipitation change over to snow mostly north and west of the
fall line, and a rain/snow mix along the coastal plains. As
mentioned by the previous shift, even if it does happen, it will
likely be little more than a nuisance snow, with the possible
exception of northwest NJ and the southern Poconos which could see a
few inches of accumulation. Though snow totals did increase a bit,
this is not the result of major changes in the forecast, rather, the
forecast is now incorporating snow amounts during the day Wednesday
in addition to Tuesday night.

Thursday... Dry and cold as strong (~1040 mb) high pressure
builds in from the west. Generally expect highs to only top out
in the low to mid 30s based on 925mb (approximately the top of
the mixed layer) temps of -6 to -9C. Given the dry airmass and
light winds near the center of the high left Thursday's lows on
the lower end of guidance (ranging from low teens up north to
the mid 20s over Delmarva, with teens possible in the colder
spots of southern/central NJ as well).

Friday... The high will shift to our northeast on Friday, with a
warmer and moister east-southeast flow developing over the area.
Generally expect dry weather, although the Canadian attempts to
bring a southern-stream coastal low through the area in the
afternoon, while the GFS attempts to initiate some overunning
precipitation Friday afternoon. Given that it will likely take
some time for the lower-lvls to moisten suspect that initiating
precipitation Friday afternoon is a bit too fast so generally
went Slight Chc PoPs. Highs will run about 10 degrees warmer
than Thursday with greater warming felt near the coast due to
the onshore flow.

Friday night into Saturday... Likely will see rain during this
period, however the nature/forcing for this precipitation is
currently unclear. The GFS keeps the primary sfc. low inland,
and brings it through the Great Lakes late Saturday, while the
EC indicates the coastal low will become the primary low and
brings it through our area on Saturday (the Canadian depicts
this low passing Friday night). Consequently whether we get an
warm advective/shortwave driven precipitation event (GFS) or a
low- lvl confluence /synoptic-lift driven precipitation event
(EC) is unknown. Regardless we should be fairly warm on
Saturday with highs generally in the 50s.

Saturday night/Sunday... Given model uncertainties from previous
period, the forecast in this period is naturally uncertain.
That being said the current guidance suite puts us post-frontal
by Sunday with some drying and cooling (although the
postfrontal airmass does not seem particularly cold) indicated
in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR early into the nighttime hours, with ceilings lowering
to MVFR levels after 05-06Z from south to north. Rain and drizzle to
move into the region shortly after, turning into a steady rain by
sunrise/12Z. Light and variable wind will turn south-southeasterly
by daybreak to 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Monday and Monday night...MVFR with periods of IFR conditions
possible with a mostly steady moderate rain all day. A few breaks
are possible with conditions turning more showery into the late
afternoon and evening. Southerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts
from 20 to 30 knots possible will turn more southwesterly into
Monday night. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night...There may be a brief period of VFR
conditions Tuesday morning, but mostly MVFR or even IFR conditions
are likely Tuesday afternoon and night. Southwesterly winds abruptly
shifting to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon 10 to 15 kt with some
gusts to 20 kt especially Tuesday afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...The day will likely start with widespread MVFR or even
IFR conditions, but by afternoon, conditions should be gradually
improving to VFR. Westerly winds near 10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday night-Thursday... VFR. Light northwest winds becoming
northerly on Thursday. High Confidence.

Thursday night-Friday... Generally VFR. Light northeasterly
winds Thursday night veering more easterly (around 5kts) on
Friday. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the marine zones are expected to deteriorate into
tonight with Small Craft Advisory criteria after 22Z with with
southerly winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots across the
northern two Atlantic zones. Wind gusts will remain near or below 20
knots across the rest of the Atlantic zones and across the Delaware
Bay. Winds will lesson early Monday before picking back up Monday
afternoon and into the overnight with advisory level gusts out of
the south across the Atlantic zones. Gale force gusts may be
possible by Tuesday morning, however confidence is not particularly
high yet.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night...SCA conditions likely especially on the
coastal waters through the day Tuesday with southwesterly winds
shifting northwesterly in the afternoon, and gusts up to 30 kt
possible. Tuesday night, winds and seas should gradually diminish
below SCA criteria.

Wednesday...Conditions should stay below SCA criteria, though some
westerly gusts above 20 kt are possible.

Thursday... Sub SCA conditions expected with northerly-
northeasterly winds gusting 15-20kts.

Friday...Seas potentially increasing above SCA criteria Friday
PM but uncertainty is high. Winds becoming easterly and gusting
15-20 kts by Friday afternoon.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ450>452.

&&

Synopsis...Johnson
Near Term...Davis/Franklin
Short Term...Davis
Long Term...Carr/Johnson
Aviation...Franklin
Marine...Carr/Davis/Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
311 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-092015-
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
311 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Snow is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Snow accumulations of of
2 to 4 inches are possible across the southern Poconos and northwest
New Jersey during this time and could impact the Wednesday morning
commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ060>062-070-
071-101>106-092015-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
311 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-092015-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
311 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1235 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ055-090900-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, and Stroudsburg
1235 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

...Spotty Freezing Rain or Freezing Drizzle...

Areas light rain or drizzle are forming across the area. Some
spots remain around or slightly below freezing, which could
create some spotty areas of freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Temperatures will continue to rise above freezing over the next
few hours.

Robertson