Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

681 
WWUS51 KPHI 181818
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
218 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NJC035-181827-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-190618T1900Z/
Somerset NJ-
218 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northern and central New Jersey.

LAT...LON 4035 7397 4032 7404 4032 7401 4014 7403
      4033 7459 4039 7453 4047 7436 4044 7420
      4039 7398 4038 7401 4038 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 275DEG 26KT 4036 7446 

$$

NJC023-025-181900-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-190618T1900Z/
Monmouth NJ-Middlesex NJ-
218 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MONMOUTH AND SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...

At 217 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Jamesburg, or 8
miles south of New Brunswick, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, 
         siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Asbury Park, Middletown, Old Bridge, East Brunswick, Marlboro, Tinton
Falls, Holmdel, Red Bank, Matawan, Jamesburg, Cranbury, Farmingdale,
Brownville, East Freehold, West Freehold, Adelphia, Yorketown,
Navesink, Collingwood Park and Morganville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 7397 4032 7404 4032 7401 4014 7403
      4033 7459 4039 7453 4047 7436 4044 7420
      4039 7398 4038 7401 4038 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 275DEG 26KT 4036 7446 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gorse

395 
WWUS51 KPHI 181828
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
228 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NJC023-025-181900-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-190618T1900Z/
Monmouth NJ-Middlesex NJ-
228 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MONMOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...

At 228 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Yorketown, or
10 miles southeast of New Brunswick, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, 
         siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Asbury Park, Middletown, Old Bridge, East Brunswick, Marlboro, Tinton
Falls, Holmdel, Red Bank, Matawan, Jamesburg, Cranbury, Farmingdale,
Brownville, East Freehold, Yorketown, Navesink, Collingwood Park,
Morganville, Robertsville and Clearbrook Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 7397 4032 7404 4032 7401 4014 7403
      4032 7452 4039 7443 4046 7431 4044 7420
      4039 7398 4038 7401 4038 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 281DEG 26KT 4034 7435 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gorse

693 
WWUS51 KPHI 181842
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
242 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NJC023-181851-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-190618T1900Z/
Middlesex NJ-
242 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northern and central New Jersey.

LAT...LON 4035 7399 4032 7404 4032 7401 4019 7403
      4019 7406 4017 7403 4014 7403 4028 7440
      4044 7420 4039 7398 4038 7401 4037 7400
      4038 7397 4035 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 282DEG 22KT 4033 7425 

$$

NJC025-181900-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-190618T1900Z/
Monmouth NJ-
242 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY...

At 241 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Marlboro, or 13
miles south of Perth Amboy, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, 
         siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Asbury Park, Middletown, Marlboro, Tinton Falls, Holmdel, Red Bank,
Matawan, Farmingdale, East Freehold, Robertsville, Yorketown,
Navesink, Collingwood Park, Lincroft, Morganville, West Freehold,
Eatontown, Freehold, West Long Branch and Keyport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 7399 4032 7404 4032 7401 4019 7403
      4019 7406 4017 7403 4014 7403 4028 7440
      4044 7420 4039 7398 4038 7401 4037 7400
      4038 7397 4035 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 282DEG 22KT 4033 7425 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Gorse

370 
WWUS51 KPHI 181858
SVSPHI

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
258 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

NJC025-181907-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-190618T1900Z/
Monmouth NJ-
258 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MONMOUTH COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However small hail 
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm. Cloud to 
ground lightning is still occurring with this storm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northern and central New Jersey.

LAT...LON 4035 7399 4032 7404 4032 7401 4019 7403
      4019 7406 4017 7403 4014 7403 4028 7440
      4044 7420 4039 7398 4038 7401 4037 7400
      4038 7397 4035 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 281DEG 26KT 4031 7410 

$$

Gorse

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1040 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stalled frontal boundary will continue to provide episodes
of unsettled weather through Wednesday. Low pressure will likely
track near or north of the region late Thursday, with a cold front
pushing offshore Thursday night. High pressure should gradually
build in for Friday and may last through most of the weekend. By
late in the weekend or early next week, another frontal system will
approach, with a warm frontal passage expected towards Sunday night
and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the area this morning. The first round is moving across
portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern and central New
Jersey this morning as the first of several short
waves/vorticity impulses move across the area and interacts
with the frontal boundary that is located across the the
northern portions of the area. Embedded thunderstorms and
periods of moderate to heavy rain will occur for some area.

The second round will move in later this morning and through the
afternoon as a surface low moves across the area along the
stalled out boundary and another short wave/vorticity impulse
moves across the area. The round has a better chance of
thunderstorms to be associated with it. As some partial clearing
develops from south to north, instability will develop through
the day. CAPE values could reach 1000-1500 J/kg across southeast
PA, central and southern NJ, DE, and MD. This combined with
bulk shear around 25-35 knots, severe thunderstorms will become
possible this afternoon. SPC has upgraded much of eastern PA, central
and southern NJ, DE, and MD to a slight risk for this afternoon.

With the threat for heavy rain, we will keep the Flash Flood
Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
The disturbance passing thru today will move offshore tonight. A
decrease in tstm/shower activity is expected by late evening and
activity will be at a lull overnight. More fog will develop,
especially in areas that get decent rainfall today. Lows will remain
mild with mostly upper 60s/low 70s. Across the north readings in the
low to mid 60s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview...

Active weather will continue to dominate at least early in the long
term period, with some signs of changes going towards next week as
the CONUS pattern undergoes a shuffling. Initially, for the middle
part of the week, we are looking at more of the same. The stalled
front will continue to waver nearby on Wednesday, although by then
it will really be starting to lose definition. The weaker forcing
and indications for a good deal of cloud cover to limit instability
will probably keep convective activity on Wednesday rather tame. A
more intriguing setup presents itself by Thursday, and that is where
the most time was concentrated for this portion of the forecast.
This is another in a series of setups we have seen the past couple
weeks that are in many ways more becoming of the cold season than
the warm season. Synoptically, a shortwave trough is likely to
amplify as it moves across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley, with
surface cyclogenesis occurring as it does so, supported by low
positioning within the right entrance region of a jet streak moving
over the Great Lakes. This low then looks to track east-northeast
with the mid-level flow towards the Great Lakes, and may eventually
phase with another trough over southern Canada as it begins to move
away from our area. It is what happens before this that could be of
interest to us. Some guidance, particularly the 18.0z NAM, indicates
an unusually intense low, at least given the season and its
location, developing by Thursday. The warm sector environment of
such a cyclone would have considerable potential for severe weather,
but confidence on outcomes regarding the low track is not especially
high. Regardless of its evolution, this system should pull away on
Friday but lingering showers and gusty northwest winds are possible
for that day as the low departs and the trailing upper trough swings
through.

By Friday night and Saturday, weak ridging looks to build in over
the Great Lakes, placing our region downstream of this weak ridge
and upstream of the departing trough. This should yield drier
weather for the weekend, though we will still have to watch an
active convective regime to our west. What is most evident as early
as the end of this week and continuing into next week is a major
pattern change over the West, where the persistent ridging over the
West Coast of late will be replaced by troughing. This should in
turn favor more ridging downstream which would increase our chances
for sustained hotter weather. These changes may be a bit slow to
manifest in our region in part due to the continued tendency for
blocking over Greenland, which has favored persistent troughing over
southern Canada. This in turn has played a role in keeping our
pattern unsettled. If this blocking pattern starts to break, I
expect we will see more in the way of deep summer heat next week.
That would likely fall mostly outside of this forecast period,
though temperatures may warm towards the mid and upper 80s by early
next week as a warm front moves through in association with the next
frontal system to impact us.

Dailies...

Wednesday-Wednesday night... The long-lingering front will be mostly
washed out by Wednesday, though what's left of it continues to
meander nearby to us. Mid and high level cloud cover will probably
be fairly extensive on Wednesday, and mid-level buoyancy will be
weak. Thus, given weak forcing and lower instability, not expecting
much if any in the way of severe potential Wednesday, and the SPC
has maintained just general thunder probabilities. PWATs continue to
hover just below 2" so any showers or storms that develop will still
have localized heavy rain potential especially since storm motions
will likely be on the slow side. However, in general Wednesday
should not feature as much risk potential as some other days we have
faced recently. Highs near to just below seasonal norms due to the
cloudiness, with another warm overnight as dew points don't budge
out of the upper 60s.

Thursday-Thursday night...The synoptic idea for Thursday was
described above, as developing low pressure moves out of the Ohio
Valley and towards the southern Great Lakes. The track and structure
of this low will dictate our weather for Thursday afternoon and
evening. The two extremes out of the 18.0z guidance are the NAM and
the GFS. The NAM shows a very intense (for June standards) low
pressure developing and tracking roughly over Lakes Erie and
Ontario. The GFS, at the opposite end, shows a much more strung out
and more southerly tracking low. The EC and GEM are compromise
solutions though generally look and feel a little closer to the NAM.
The NAM scenario would present the possibility of a rather high end
severe weather event Thursday owing to an unusual combination of
very strong dynamic forcing intersecting a moist and highly unstable
warm sector air mass. The GFS solution would still present some
severe risk, but it would be more limited and confined further south
in the region. Per collaboration with SPC, a slight risk has been
introduced for a portion of the region on Day 3. At this stage, it
should be cautioned against putting too many eggs into any one
basket on the outcome. What can be taken out of the NAM solution is
that there is a higher than normal ceiling potential for severe
weather on Thursday. However, it is far from certain the ingredients
will come together to achieve this, and with it still being a couple
days away the best course of action for now remains to monitor
trends over the next day or so as more of the hi-res guidance comes
into range. Heavy rain potential certainly exists again on Thursday
with any storms, though we would more likely be looking at faster
moving cells moving more perpendicular to the approaching cold
front, which would help temper that threat.

Friday... Friday looks to be a transition day as the low pressure
system pulls away. It will likely take all day Friday for the upper
trough associated with the low to swing through, helping keep
temperatures on the cool side of normal. Exactly how slow this
evolution is will determine how unsettled Friday turns out to be. If
the Thursday system does end up more strung out like the GFS shows,
we would see more wrap-around showers on Friday. A more compact and
faster moving low would likely yield faster drying and keep the
shower risk Friday lower. This would also yield gustier northwest
winds on Friday. We'll have to keep an eye on the gusty wind
potential for Friday as that gets closer. Split the difference for
the time being with a breezy and cooler than average day with a
shower risk decreasing into the afternoon.

Saturday-Sunday... As mentioned above, we should see some ridging
build in to our west for the weekend, yielding northwesterly or
westerly flow. There have been some previous model solutions sending
one or more MCSs our way embedded within the northwest flow over the
weekend. However, the trend on the 18.0z guidance is drier, and this
seems to make more sense for this pattern as we should see high
pressure build in downstream of the ridge over southern Canada.
Expecting this high to be enough to send any ridge-riding
disturbances to our south over the weekend. Thus, expecting mainly
dry weather to prevail for the weekend. Continued northwest flow
with a rather chilly Canadian air mass to our north will keep
Saturday's highs near to below normal, with some gradual WAA
beginning Sunday as flow turns more westerly, which will make Sunday
the warmer of the two weekend days.

Monday-Tuesday... By early next week, there is good agreement that
another frontal system will begin to affect the region, though it is
certainly too early to speculate on any details of that one. It is
behind this system, towards the middle and latter part of next week,
that long range ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement on
longwave ridging building in over the central and eastern US and
potentially ushering in hotter weather. For now, we will just have
to watch and wait to see whether that signal proves correct, though
as discussed above the evolution across the Pacific and the western
US should start to favor such an outcome.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR conditions continue this morning for many locations,
however, ceilings are beginning to lift and should become MVFR
by later this morning and early afternoon. VFR ceilings are then
expected for a period later this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
northeast PA and central and northern NJ this morning. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
with the Delaware Valley and SE sites expected to get most of
the activity. Terminals have VCTS in them for now with confid in
many details of the TAFS quite low attm.

Tonight...Still plenty of uncertainty in the TAFS with
showers/tstms across Delmarva and Srn NJ decreasing overnight. There
will likely be more fog overnight, but the degree and areas extent
still uncertain.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Wednesday night... Prevailing conditions should be VFR but
patchy lower ceilings possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms also possible.

Thursday-Thursday night... Showers and thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon and evening. Southerly wind around 10 kt becoming westerly
overnight.

Friday-Friday night... MVFR possible early but improvement to VFR
likely. Breezy, with northwest winds gusting up to 25 kt.

Saturday-Sunday... VFR. Winds mostly out of the west or northwest
with gusts generally 15 kt or less.

&&

.MARINE...
No big changes on the waters with mostly South winds expected today
and tonight with speeds mostly 5 to 10 knots. Wind directions could
trend a little more Southeast this morning at times. Seas will be
around 3 ft on the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across Delaware Bay. Sct
tstms with higher winds and seas will be the main weather hazard
today and tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Thursday... Sub-SCA conditions expected. Scattered tstms
with locally higher winds and waves possible both days.

Thursday night-Friday... A period of SCA conditions is likely as
northwest winds gust up to 30 kt by Friday and seas build 4 to 6 ft.
Tstms possible Thursday night.

Friday night-Sunday... Lingering SCA conditions possible early
Friday night but the trend will be towards sub-SCA. High confidence
in sub-SCA conditions for the weekend.

Rip Currents...

A low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
expected to continue through today with waves in the surf zone
3 feet or less.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ054-055-060>062-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
DE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for DEZ001>004.
MD...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...O'Brien
Near Term...Robertson/O'Hara
Short Term...O'Hara
Long Term...O'Brien
Aviation...Robertson/O'Brien/O'Hara
Marine...O'Brien/O'Hara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
344 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-190745-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
344 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms exist
Wednesday and Thursday. Flooding may become more of a problem with
time should repeated rounds of storms affect the area. In addition,
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-190745-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
344 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms exist
Wednesday and Thursday. Flooding may become more of a problem with
time should repeated rounds of storms affect the area. In addition,
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-190745-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
344 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.