Gale Watch 16, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

060 
WHUS71 KPHI 301313
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
913 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

ANZ431-310200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0088.191031T2200Z-191101T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.GL.A.0016.191031T2200Z-191101T1400Z/
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
913 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale
Watch, which is in effect from Thursday evening through Friday
morning. The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ450>455-310200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0088.191031T1300Z-191031T2200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0016.191031T2200Z-191101T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
913 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 
  45 kt. Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ430-310200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0088.191031T2200Z-191101T2100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
913 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

MPS

592 
WHUS71 KPHI 301940
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

ANZ450>455-311000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0088.191031T1300Z-191031T2200Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0016.191031T2200Z-191101T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0020.191031T2200Z-191101T1400Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EDT
Friday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
  on Thursday, increasing to 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt
  Thursday evening, then shifting west 20 to 30 kt with gusts up
  to 45 kt Thursday night. Seas 7 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ431-311000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0016.191031T2200Z-191101T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0020.191031T2200Z-191101T1400Z/
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 6 PM Thursday to 10 AM EDT
Friday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt
  on Thursday, increasing to 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt
  Thursday evening, then shifting west 20 to 30 kt with gusts up
  to 40 kt Thursday night. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-311000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0088.191031T2200Z-191101T2100Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
340 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 
  kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

MPS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
923 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will drift south into
the western Atlantic waters tonight through Wednesday. A warm
front will then lift north through the region late Wednesday
night through Thursday morning, followed by a strong cold front
late Thursday night. High pressure returns for the weekend and
into the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The overall synoptic pattern remains stagnant through tonight,
with a ridge off the East Coast with surface high pressure
centered off the northern New England coast. The surface high
then extends southwestward across our area. Meanwhile, a weak
surface trough extends northwestward from the ocean near coastal
New Jersey. Rounds of drizzle continue to track from southeast
to northwest this evening, with much of this in New Jersey but
it does extend into portions of eastern Pennsylvania. The light
sfc flow is not effective in eroding the moist layer beneath
the inversion.

As the earlier fcst has was in good shape, we have kept lots of
clouds around through the night and given a similar setup to
last night the clouds will lower with time. Areas of drizzle
will continue or even expand some, with areas of fog developing
as well. The fog development is less certain given the expectation
of stratus to dominate overnight. Some guidance does show New
Jersey into northeastern Pennsylvania especially getting locally
dense fog toward Wednesday morning.

Based on the amount of cloud cover anticipated, temperatures
are expected to be on milder side. Opted to go with a model
blend of the 2-meter temperatures for the lows, as the MOS
looked to cool.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As the ridge shifts farther offshore Wednesday, surface high
pressure also shifts more eastward through the day. A weak
surface trough near the New Jersey coast should weaken some as
the surface high also weakens over our area. As this occurs, any
drizzle and fog in the morning should improve from south to
north.

The forecast soundings show overall that an inversion holds
through the day, although this may weaken some as the subsidence
component from the surface high breaks down. Much of the area
should be blanketed with low clouds at least in the morning,
with some improvement possible through the day. We are not
anticipating much in the way of sunshine again, especially given
an impulse tracking up the Ohio Valley allowing for a surge in
warm air advection to approach our region. This may result in a
few showers especially in the afternoon, however other than the
drizzle much of the time may see little in the way of rainfall.
The airmass should start to modify as the flow backs to more
southerly, however given the low-level moisture, lack of much
mixing and extensive cloudiness we favored a bit cooler
temperatures (a compromise of mostly the NAM/GFS MOS).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep upper trough will carve out an H5 low over the Central
Plains states Wednesday night. Surface low pressure just ahead
of it will track northeast from the Mississippi Valley into the
Ohio Valley, and as it does, it will push a warm front north
through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast late Wednesday night
through Thursday morning. The front should become hung up
somewhere across the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey,
or just to the north during the day Thursday.

Southerly flow will usher an increasingly warm and humid
airmass into the region. Rain develops as the front lifts north
through the region, and continues through the Thursday morning
commute.

From there, the front will remain to the north, and some rain
may continue through the afternoon across the far northern zones
that are in the vicinity of the front. For the rest of the
region, though, there should be a period Thursday afternoon
through early Thursday evening where showers become more
scattered, and possibly even dry. 12Z/29 NAM showing a fairly
significant dry slot out ahead of the approaching cold front.
Should that occur, Halloween afternoon would be relatively
rain- free, outside of a few showers. Will have the highest PoPs
in the morning, and then will drop PoPs to chance/slight chance
south of the Fall Line. For the Lehigh Valley, southern
Poconos, and northern New Jersey, will keep Pops at likely.

A warm and humid day on tap for Thursday with highs in the 60s
and 70s, and surface dewpoints well in the 60s, even approaching
70 in the southern zones.

The main activity then comes Thursday night. As H5 low tracks
from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley northeast into eastern Canada,
a strong cold front will pass through the region. Models
depicting the development of a squall line with heavy rain
showers out ahead of the cold front.

Surface-based instability will be fairly low, and SB CAPE
values are currently projected to be less than 100 J/kg.
However, ML MUCAPE should be on the order of 300-500 J/kg, along
with 75-85 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear. There is also a 55-65 kt
low level jet that will pass through the region during this
time.

Model soundings indicate a fairly strong inversion, so not
expecting the winds to mix down unless a strong downpour
develops. SPC Day 3 outlook has the local area in a general
thunderstorm threat. Will carry chance for thunderstorms
Thursday night, but it will be hard for the stronger winds to
mix down to the surface, and lightning strikes will be limited
as well.

Showers taper off fairly quickly from west to east with the
passage of the cold front late Thursday night through Friday
morning. By midday Friday, the region should be dry with skies
clearing out. A fairly tight westerly pressure gradient develops
over the region with winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Looking less likely that a Wind Advisory would be needed (gusts
45-50 mph).

Much cooler and dryer air spreads into the region Friday with
highs in the 50s and dew points in the 30s.

High pressure then builds in from the north and west for the
weekend. A weak cold front may pass through the region over the
weekend, but it should pass through dry, with only a quick
reinforcing shot of colder air.

Highs will generally top off in the 50s on Saturday, then in
the 40s and low 50s Sunday and Monday.

In addition, overnight lows will be in the 30s, even dropping
to and below freezing away from the coasts and urban corridor.
Should be able to clear many zones from the frost/freeze program
this weekend, especially Sunday night.

Conditions rebound a bit by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Challenging TAFS this evening. Clouds have mixed out across the
Delmarva but little in the way of clearing happened at our TAF sites
this afternoon. Radar shows some drizzle and light rain across ern
NJ streaming north. It's likely to continue overnight and at
times move across NJ/ern PA.

It's tough not to go pessimistic with the TAFS with most guidance
showing low conditions overnight and the ongoing fcst already
mostly that way too. My 00Z fcst incorporated lower CIGS/VSBYS
for both the Delaware Valley and srn NJ TAF sites. The KRDG/KABE
sites being further away from the sea, may not go too low overnight,
but I kept some low end MVFR at RDG and IFR (for a shorter period)
at KABE. Confid in the TAFS is not the best and several AMDS are
expected overnight. Winds will be light and variable at most sites.

Tomorrow, little in the way of mixing and a strong inversion will
promote a longer period of low conditions during the morning, so my
fcst shows a later trend for both MVFR and eventually some VFR at
some sites. Winds will be light from the E or NE then turning SE
late.

Outlook...

Wednesday night-Thursday...Generally, a prolonged period of
sub-VFR conditions. Rain, fog, and low stratus will affect the
terminals Wednesday night through Thursday morning, and then low
clouds continue into Thursday afternoon. Cannot rule out some
breaks to VFR Thursday afternoon, but confidence is low. LLWS
from surface to 2000 feet possible, especially Thursday
afternoon. LGT/VRB winds Wednesday night become south 10-15 kt
Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night...Sub-VFR in SHRA, fog, and low clouds. A few
TSRA are possible, along with heavy rain and gusty winds. South
winds 10-20 kt become west after midnight at 15-20 kt with gusts
up to 30 kt. LLWS possible.

Friday...Lingering showers in the morning, otherwise VFR. West
winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing late.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR. Light southwest wind Saturday
becoming northwest at around 10 kt Sunday. High confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
An overall onshore wind component, while light, will continue
through Wednesday. While the winds are expected to be well below
Small Craft Advisory criteria, seas on the Atlantic coastal
waters should be 4 to 5 feet at times however this is along the
outer edge of the coastal waters. Therefore, continued to hold
off on an advisory. Areas of fog and drizzle through Wednesday
morning, with locally dense fog possible especially along portions
of the coast late tonight and early Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected. VSBY
restrictions in fog and rain possible.

Thursday...SCA conditions expected. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Southerly
winds increasing through the day with gusts to 25 kt by late
afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday night...SCA conditions are expected, with
a period of gale force conditions also possible late Thursday
night through Friday morning. Southwesterly winds will shift
sharply to west-northwest late Thursday night as a cold front
moves through. Seas Thursday night and through most of Friday
will run 7 to 10 ft. Conditions should gradually subside to sub-
SCA levels on Friday night.

Saturday-Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected, though northwest
winds could gust near or a little above 20 kt on Sunday. Seas 2
to 3 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay, spotty minor flooding
is possible with the Wednesday morning to early afternoon high
tide cycle.

For the Chesapeake Bay... The highest tide cycle will likely
occur tonight. However, the wind direction is not favorable for
enhancing the water levels on the Chesapeake, and still expecting
all our forecast points to remain below flood stage, though
cannot entirely rule out some spotty minor flooding this evening
if water levels are a few tenths of a foot higher than
anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...Gorse/PO
Short Term...Gorse
Long Term...Gorse/MPS
Aviation...Gorse/MPS/PO
Marine...Gorse/MPS/PO
Tides/Coastal Flooding...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
532 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007-014>018-024>026-PAZ054-
055-070-071-106-302145-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-
Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-Carbon-Monroe-Delaware-Philadelphia-Lower Bucks-
532 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, southern New Jersey, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ008>010-012-013-019>023-027-PAZ060>062-101>105-302145-
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
532 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-302145-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
532 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gale force winds are possible Thursday night through Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Staarmann