Alert archive / New Jersey / Gale Warnings in 2019
Gale Warning 26, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this gale warning at Dec 1, 2019, 3:53 AM EST. It took effect at Dec 1, 2019, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 20 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 1, 2019, 3:53 AM EST (08:53 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 1, 2019, 10:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 2, 2019, 6:16 AM EST
- In force
- 20 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
The text
As transmitted.
016 WHUS71 KPHI 010853 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ANZ450-451-012200- /O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0021.191201T1500Z-191202T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0026.191201T1500Z-191202T0300Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 353 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect. * WINDS AND SEAS...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ430-431-012200- /O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.191201T1500Z-191202T0000Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 353 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening. * WINDS AND SEAS...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ452>455-012200- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.191201T1500Z-191203T1100Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 353 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Easterly winds winds 15 to 25 kt today with gusts up to 30 kt becoming westerly/northwesterly 15-20 kt gusting to 25kts on Monday. Seas 3 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
5 follow-up statements
223 WHUS71 KPHI 012051 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 351 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ANZ450-451-020300- /O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-191202T0300Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 351 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS AND SEAS...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ452>455-021000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191203T1100Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 351 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Easterly winds 15 to 25 with gusts up to 30 knots this evening shifting to west/northwesterly 15-20 gusting up to 25 knots on Monday. Seas 3 to 6 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ430-431-020000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191202T0000Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 351 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS AND SEAS...East winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
685 WHUS71 KPHI 012354 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 654 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ANZ430-431-020100- /O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191202T0000Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 654 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... Wind gusts have fallen below 25 kt. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory will expire at 7 pm. $$ ANZ450-451-020300- /O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-191202T0300Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 654 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS AND SEAS...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ452>455-021100- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191203T1100Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 654 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ MPS
250 WHUS71 KPHI 020224 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 924 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ANZ450-451-021000- /O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-191202T1000Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 924 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ452>455-021000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191203T1100Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 924 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ MPS
873 WHUS71 KPHI 020835 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 335 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ANZ450-451-021200- /O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-191202T1200Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 335 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northeast to north winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 35 knots early this morning. Seas 7 to 10 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means that winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and a properly equipped vessel. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience remain in port. && $$ ANZ430-431-022200- /O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191203T2300Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 335 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 6:00 PM Tuesday. * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots through Tuesday. Seas 2 to 5 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ452>455-022200- /O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191203T2300Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 335 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots through Tuesday. Seas 5 to 8 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ Iovino
994 WHUS71 KPHI 021116 MWWPHI URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 616 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ANZ450-451-030000- /O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-191202T1200Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191203T2300Z/ Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 616 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 6:00 PM Tuesday. The Gale Warning has been cancelled. * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots through Tuesday. Seas 5 to 9 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ452>455-030000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191203T2300Z/ Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 616 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots through Tuesday. Seas 5 to 8 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ430-431-030000- /O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191203T2300Z/ Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 616 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots through Tuesday. Seas 2 to 5 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ Iovino
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 30, 9:48 PM EST, 6 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 30, 9:48 PM EST, 6 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
948 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move from the plain states towards the lower
Great Lakes tonight into Sunday. A secondary low is expected to
develop in Virginia, Maryland and Delaware by late Sunday. The
secondary low is anticipated to intensify as it moves slowly to
the northeast, reaching Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. High
pressure should gradually build into our region from the west
and southwest during the balance of the work week. A cold front
may approach from the northwest late on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No big changes to the forecast so far this evening. The overall
trend looks good. We have made some hourly temperature and
dewpoint adjustments, but the overall forecast still looks good.
Precipitation will begin to move into portions of southeast
Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Delaware and eastern Maryland
around or shortly before daybreak. Delaware and Maryland,
should remain mostly above freezing and be all rain, except
possible the extreme northern portions of Cecil and New Castle
counties where a brief period of freezing rain or sleet may
occur before warming up. The same is expected for southern New
Jersey where temperatures are currently below freezing.
Temperatures are expected to rise late in the night just before
precipitation begins. So if there is any freezing rain or sleet,
it is expected to be brief. So the advisory was not adjusted at
this time. The more likely areas for freezing rain to occur is
farther north across Pennsylvania and central/northern New
Jersey. Precipitation likely will not begin for central/northern
New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania until after daybreak.
However, portions of southeast Pennsylvania is expected to have
precipitation move into the area shortly before daybreak when
temperatures will remain below freezing. Therefore the
advisories remain in place where they area.
This will just be the very beginning though and for further
details please see sections below.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday-Monday... The storm arrives. A complex, two-phased winter
storm remains on track to impact the area. There have not been any
big changes in the overall forecast thinking, with just typical
adjustments to the forecast based on latest trends and thinking. I
do want to break down headline decisions, however, as it is a
complicated situation in that regard.
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for portions of northern New
Jersey and the Poconos. This covers the entire expected storm
duration to cover the anticipated combination of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain.
There are two tiers of Winter Weather Advisories in effect. The
southern tier, covering southeast Pennsylvania including
Philadelphia, has been issued to cover the potential for a period of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain Sunday morning, and it expires early
Sunday afternoon. The northern tier of advisories covers some
additional zones to the northeast, and that advisory is in effect
for the entire duration of the storm, as wintry impacts are expected
to continue through the day Monday due to the second period of
steady precipitation. That advisory may need to be expanded
southward in future updates once the first phase of the storm is out
of the way, and if snow amounts for Monday were to increase then
portions of it could be upgraded to a warning.
Otherwise, still looking at a very complex, two-phased winter storm
affecting the area as occluding low pressure over the Midwest
redevelops offshore.
Phase One, Sunday morning through evening: This will be the
overrunning precipitation phase as we get into a southerly flow WAA
regime with the weakening parent low to our west and the secondary
low developing along our coastline. Due to wet bulbing effects, many
areas even along I-95 will likely start at least briefly as snow,
sleet, or freezing rain. A quick change to rain is likely inside of
I-95, but signals remain strong for a prolonged mixed precip event
across the interior. High pressure centered to our north over Quebec
is in a fairly classic position to lock in low level cold. Ptype
remains a bit of a question mark. Have been fairly bullish on sleet
potential versus snow or fzra. Today, some guidance has trended
towards more fzra, though most forecast profiles to me still look
more supportive of mostly sleet. The 30.12z RGEM looked reasonable
to me, and as that tends to be a reliable model anyways I leaned on
it pretty heavily, with some blending of the NAM and other hi-res
guidance. Some of our northernmost zones will also stay as all snow
for a time Sunday, and some hi-res guidance such as 30.18z HRRR
would suggest my snow amounts up north tomorrow are too low. But
will let a fresh set of eyes reevaluate. QPF on Sunday is fairly
impressive for an overrunning event as the dynamics are on the
strong side. Given expectations for temperatures to remain below
freezing most of the day in the interior, it will likely be a very
messy day in northern and western parts of the area regardless of
exact ptype, as any combination of steady precipitation and below
freezing temperatures creates hazardous conditions. As overrunning
precip lifts north and secondary low pressure development continues,
a lull in precipitation is expected Sunday evening. Some lingering
showers or drizzle remain possible during this time, and there could
be continued light freezing rain or freezing drizzle in our northern
zones during the evening.
Phase Two, late Sunday night and Monday: This is where the
uncertainty remains higher. Signals remain for a band of snow,
potentially heavy and also potentially enhanced by an inverted
trough, to impact northern parts of the area. There is considerable
spread in how strong that band will, where it will focus itself, and
how far south it will make it. But a transition from rain or
freezing rain to snow is likely late Sunday night or Monday morning
in the northern portion of the area, and there remain indications
for the potential of several inches of snow especially in the areas
where the Winter Storm Warning is in effect. Again, some changes are
likely for this time especially if the main band of heavy snow ends
up being both as strong and as narrow as some models suggest. But it
is too early to begin creating the sharp snowfall gradients
associated with pinning down such a band.
**Summary/Key Points**: Travel across the interior is likely to
be very difficult on Sunday, especially as it is already a busy
holiday return travel day. While ptype remains somewhat
uncertain, am fairly confident that much of the day will
feature steady precipitation with sub-freezing surface
temperatures, which is always going to cause problems on the
roadways. Lesser but non-zero impacts are possible in the
morning as far southeast as I-95. For Sunday night and Monday,
there remains some uncertainty in the forecast. However,
several inches of accumulating snow and associated travel
impacts remain likely across portions of northern New Jersey
and eastern Pennsylvania. Users should continue to closely
monitor the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By Monday night, uncertainty remains a bit high on the evolution of
precipitation and amounts. However, it does appear that wrap around
precipitation amid deformation banding will be transitioning quickly
from rain to snow from north to south Monday evening. Guidance
differs on intensity and accumulation of precipitation, however
I was confident enough to include likely PoPs across the
northern tier for the evening and early overnight. Precipitation
is forecast to move completely out of the forecast area by
daybreak on Tuesday.
I made some minor adjustments to the snowfall forecast during this
time. If the forecast trends more in the direction of the 12Z ECMWF,
would likely get a few inches of snow down across central and
northern NJ including the northern Shore as the band exits, but
changes in the forecast are likely during this forecast period
so we did not include any headlines for these areas at this
time. Heavier snow is still forecast across the areas where the
Winter Storm Warning has been issued, so this headline will
cover this activity. Went a bit colder than guidance for Monday
night and Tuesday given ongoing snow and snow cover across the
north.
Please continue to monitor changes to the forecast during this
period as accumulating snowfall is forecast as the long duration
winter storm departs the region, but uncertainty remains.
Did not focus much attention on the periods beyond Monday
night, but blended in a bit of the latest consensus guidance.
Previous discussion follows...
We should remain in a cyclonic flow pattern for Wednesday into
Thursday. As a result, there may be some stratocumulus overhead at
times, with a passing sprinkle or flurry possible. Daytime highs
should favor the 40s, with readings not getting above the 30s in the
elevated terrain.
A cold front is expected to approach from the west on Friday.
However, any precipitation associated with the front should not
arrive until late in the day.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Tonight... Mostly VFR with lowering cigs from S-N after
midnight. Winds remaining 5-8 knots or less but shifting from
N/NW to NE through this evening and then E/NE by morning.
Sunday... MVFR-IFR conditions expected with primarily rain at
MIV and ACY. A mix of rain, sleet, and possibly freezing rain
at northern terminals (particularly RDG and ABE). The MVFR
conditions should set in through the morning with IFR arriving
around midday. Easterly winds around 10 kts. High confidence
winds and flight categories, moderate confidence in
precipitation types. Confidence is increasing that the I-95
terminals will experience at least a couple hours or more of
freezing rain and sleet before changing to rain, especially PHL
northward.
OUTLOOK...
Sunday night...IFR conditions with periods of rain. The rain is
expected to transition to a wintry mix at KABE and KRDG after
midnight. Winds remaining around 10 knots but shifting from NE
to NW. Medium confidence.
Monday...IFR with mainly snow at KABE and KRDG. Mainly IFR with
rain changing to snow at our remaining six TAF sites. There
could be brief periods when conditions improve to MVFR during
lulls in precip. An accumulating snow is possible, especially
at KRDG, KABE and KTTN. Northwest wind increasing to 10 to 15
knots. Medium confidence.
Monday night...Snow ending with conditions gradually improving
from to VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20
knots. Medium confidence.
Tuesday...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts around
20 knots. Medium confidence.
Tuesday night...VFR. West wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence.
Wednesday...VFR. West wind around 10 knots. Medium confidence.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with NW winds around 10 knots. Medium
confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions expected. East winds around 10 kts
and seas 1-2 feet.
Sunday...SCA conditions developing across all ocean waters
throughout the day. Easterly winds will be gusting up to 25 kts
with seas building to around 4-5 feet later in the day. Gale
force wind gusts possible north of Barnegat Light late in the
afternoon and early evening as the center of low pressure moves
offshore and rapidly intensifies. Waves will be higher in these
areas. Issued a Gale Watch for this period.
OUTLOOK...
Sunday night...Marginal SCA conditions will persist through the
overnight with west to northwesterly winds gusting 20-25 kts and
waves 4-7 feet.
Monday through Tuesday...Northwest winds gusting to around 25
kts and waves 4-6 feet. Confidence on SCA conditions is highest
overnight Monday night when wind gusts may reach up to 30 kts.
Tuesday night through Thursday...Conditions are forecast to
remain below SCA criteria.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
PAZ054-055.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday
for PAZ061-062-105-106.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for
PAZ060-070-071-101>104.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
NJZ001-007-008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday
for NJZ009-010-012-015.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
ANZ452>455.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
ANZ450-451.
&&
Synopsis...Fitzsimmons
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/Robertson
Short Term...O'Brien
Long Term...Iovino/Staarmann
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann
Marine...Carr/Iovino/StaarmannHazardous weather outlook, Nov 30, 4:18 PM EST, 11 hours 35 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 NJZ009-010-PAZ061-062-105-012130- Hunterdon-Somerset-Lehigh-Northampton-Upper Bucks- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-012130- Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ060-070-071-101>104-012130- Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NJZ012-015-PAZ106-012130- Middlesex-Mercer-Lower Bucks- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ021>025-027-012130- Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot- Caroline-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ430-431-452>455-012130- Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and Delaware Bay Waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ450-451-012130- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ013-014-019-020-026-012130- Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean- Coastal Ocean- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A brief period of sleet and patchy freezing rain is possible Sunday morning. Accumulating snowfall is possible Monday evening which may cause travel impacts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>018-012130- New Castle-Cecil-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- 418 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A brief period of sleet and patchy freezing rain is possible early Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. Staarmann
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 3:41 PM EST | Coastal Flood Advisory | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean | 38 hr |
| Dec 1, 4:11 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | PHI | Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery and 1 more | 32 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.