Alert archive / New Jersey / Coastal Flood Statements in 2019
Coastal Flood Statement 6, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this coastal flood statement at Oct 12, 2019, 3:05 PM EDT for Ocean County, New Jersey. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 12, 2019, 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 13, 2019, 2:43 PM EDT
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
County Ocean County, NJ
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 547 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -31 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
807
WHUS41 KPHI 121905
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
305 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...RESIDUAL COASTAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...
NJZ017-018-PAZ070-071-122100-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191012T2100Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Delaware-Philadelphia-
305 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS...In New Jersey, Gloucester and Camden. In
Pennsylvania, Delaware and Philadelphia.
* TIMING...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines
and tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Delaware River at Philadelphia
MLLW Categories - Minor 8.2 ft, Moderate 9.2 ft, Major 10.2 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 3.5 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
12/02 PM 8.7 2.0 2.0 Minor
13/02 AM 8.4 1.7 1.6 Minor
13/02 PM 8.1 1.4 1.3 None
14/03 AM 7.9 1.2 1.2 None
14/03 PM 7.9 1.2 1.1 None
15/03 AM 7.5 0.8 1.0 None
&&
$$
MDZ015-019-020-122300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191012T2300Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
305 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
* LOCATIONS...Talbot, Queen Annes and Caroline.
* TIMING...Until 7 PM EDT this evening.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines
and tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
12/04 PM 4.3 2.6 2.8 Minor
13/04 AM 3.6 1.9 2.2 Minor
13/05 PM 3.3 1.6 1.7 None
14/05 AM 3.0 1.3 1.6 None
14/05 PM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
15/06 AM 2.6 0.9 1.2 None
&&
$$
MDZ012-130200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.191012T2100Z-191013T0200Z/
Kent MD-
305 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
* LOCATIONS...Kent MD.
* TIMING...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines
and tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
12/07 PM 4.1 2.4 2.3 Minor
13/06 AM 3.4 1.7 1.8 None
13/08 PM 3.4 1.7 1.5 None
14/07 AM 3.0 1.3 1.4 None
14/08 PM 3.0 1.3 1.0 None
15/08 AM 2.6 0.9 1.0 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-130400-
/O.NEW.KPHI.CF.S.0006.191012T1905Z-191013T0400Z/
Ocean-
305 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR BACK BAYS OF OCEAN COUNTY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..
* LOCATIONS...Ocean.
* TIMING...Until midnight EDT tonight.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Minor tidal flooding will continue in
back bays of Ocean County into this evening. Minor inundation
of roadways will be possible in this area.
$$8 follow-up statements
271
WHUS41 KPHI 122105
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
505 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...RESIDUAL COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES THIS EVENING...
NJZ017-018-PAZ070-071-122215-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191012T2100Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Delaware-Philadelphia-
505 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
High tide has already occurred and water levels continue to
recede.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Delaware River at Philadelphia
MLLW Categories - Minor 8.2 ft, Moderate 9.2 ft, Major 10.2 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 ft, Moderate 2.5 ft, Major 3.5 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/02 AM 8.2 1.5 1.4 Minor
13/02 PM 7.5 0.8 0.7 None
14/03 AM 7.4 0.7 0.7 None
14/03 PM 7.4 0.7 0.6 None
15/03 AM 7.1 0.4 0.6 None
&&
$$
MDZ015-019-020-122300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191012T2300Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
505 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
* LOCATIONS...Talbot, Queen Annes and Caroline.
* TIMING...Until 7 PM EDT this evening.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...One to two feet of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
12/04 PM 4.4 2.7 2.9 Moderate
13/05 AM 3.7 2.0 2.2 Minor
13/05 PM 3.2 1.5 1.6 None
14/05 AM 2.8 1.1 1.4 None
14/05 PM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
15/06 AM 2.5 0.8 1.1 None
&&
$$
MDZ012-130200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T0200Z/
Kent MD-
505 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
* LOCATIONS...Kent MD.
* TIMING...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines
and tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
12/06 PM 4.1 2.4 2.4 Minor
13/07 AM 3.6 1.9 1.9 Minor
13/08 PM 3.2 1.5 1.3 None
14/07 AM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
14/08 PM 2.7 1.0 0.7 None
15/08 AM 2.3 0.6 0.7 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-130400-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T0400Z/
Ocean-
505 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
* LOCATIONS...Ocean.
* TIMING...Until midnight EDT tonight.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Mostly minor tidal flooding will
continue in the back bays of Ocean County this evening,
especially in the Mantoloking and Bay Shore areas. Minor
inundation of roadways will be possible in these areas.
$$945
WHUS41 KPHI 122239
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...RESIDUAL COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY...
MDZ015-019-020-131145-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1300Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
639 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT SUNDAY...
* LOCATIONS...Talbot, Queen Annes and Caroline counties.
* TIMING...Until 9 AM EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...One to two feet of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/04 AM 4.1 2.4 2.7 Minor
13/05 PM 3.4 1.7 1.8 Minor
14/05 AM 2.8 1.1 1.4 None
14/05 PM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
15/06 AM 2.5 0.8 1.1 None
&&
$$
MDZ012-131145-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1600Z/
Kent MD-
639 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY...
* LOCATIONS...Kent County MD.
* TIMING...Until noon EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...One to two feet of inundation above
ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and
tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
12/06 PM 4.2 2.5 2.5 Minor
13/06 AM 3.9 2.2 2.3 Minor
13/08 PM 3.2 1.5 1.3 None
14/07 AM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
14/08 PM 2.7 1.0 0.7 None
15/08 AM 2.3 0.6 0.7 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-130400-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T0400Z/
Ocean-
639 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE BACK BAYS OF OCEAN
COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..
* LOCATIONS...Ocean County.
* TIMING...Until midnight EDT tonight.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Mostly minor tidal flooding will
continue in the back bays of Ocean County through this evening,
especially in the Mantoloking and Bay Shore areas. Minor
inundation of roadways will be possible in these areas.
$$749
WHUS41 KPHI 130128
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
928 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING INTO SUNDAY...
MDZ015-019-020-131300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1300Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
928 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...
* LOCATIONS...Talbot, Queen Annes and Caroline counties.
* TIMING...Until 9 AM EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to two feet of inundation above
ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/04 AM 4.1 2.4 2.7 Minor
13/05 PM 3.4 1.7 1.8 Minor
14/05 AM 2.8 1.1 1.4 None
14/05 PM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
15/06 AM 2.5 0.8 1.1 None
15/06 PM 2.7 1.0 1.0 None
&&
$$
MDZ012-131430-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1600Z/
Kent MD-
928 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
SUNDAY...
* LOCATIONS...Kent County MD.
* TIMING...Until noon EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to two feet of inundation above
ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/06 AM 4.1 2.4 2.5 Minor
13/08 PM 3.2 1.5 1.3 None
14/07 AM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
14/08 PM 2.7 1.0 0.7 None
15/08 AM 2.3 0.6 0.7 None
&&
$$
NJZ026-131200-
/O.EXB.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T1200Z/
Coastal Ocean-
928 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE BACK BAYS OF OCEAN
COUNTY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY..
* LOCATIONS...Coastal Ocean.
* TIMING...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Mostly minor tidal flooding will
continue in the back bays of Ocean County tonight, especially in
the Mantoloking and Bay Shore areas. Minor inundation of
roadways and low lying areas will occur.
&&
$$
NJZ020-131200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T1200Z/
Ocean-
928 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE BACK BAYS OF OCEAN
COUNTY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY..
* LOCATIONS...Ocean County.
* TIMING...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Mostly minor tidal flooding will
continue in the back bays of Ocean County tonight, especially in
the Mantoloking and Bay Shore areas. Minor inundation of
roadways and low lying areas will occur.
$$292
WHUS41 KPHI 130134
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
934 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING INTO SUNDAY...
MDZ015-019-020-131300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1300Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
934 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT
SUNDAY...
* LOCATIONS...Talbot, Queen Annes and Caroline counties.
* TIMING...Until 9 AM EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to two feet of inundation above
ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/04 AM 4.1 2.4 2.7 Minor
13/05 PM 3.4 1.7 1.8 Minor
14/05 AM 2.8 1.1 1.4 None
14/05 PM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
15/06 AM 2.5 0.8 1.1 None
15/06 PM 2.7 1.0 1.0 None
&&
$$
MDZ012-131445-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1600Z/
Kent MD-
934 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
SUNDAY...
* LOCATIONS...Kent County MD.
* TIMING...Until noon EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to two feet of inundation above
ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal
waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/06 AM 4.1 2.4 2.5 Minor
13/08 PM 3.2 1.5 1.3 None
14/07 AM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
14/08 PM 2.7 1.0 0.7 None
15/08 AM 2.3 0.6 0.7 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-026-131200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T1200Z/
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
934 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE BACK BAYS OF OCEAN
COUNTY THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY...
* LOCATIONS...Ocean County.
* TIMING...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Mostly minor tidal flooding will
continue in the back bays of Ocean County tonight, especially
in the Mantoloking and Bay Shore areas. Minor inundation of
roadways and low lying areas will occur.
&&
$$584
WHUS41 KPHI 130851
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
451 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING...
MDZ015-019-020-131300-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1300Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
451 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
* LOCATIONS...Talbot, Queen Annes and Caroline.
* TIMING...Until 9 AM EDT this morning.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half foot of inundation
above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near
shorelines and tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/04 AM 3.8 2.1 2.4 Minor
13/05 PM 3.3 1.6 1.7 None
14/05 AM 2.8 1.1 1.4 None
14/05 PM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
15/05 AM 2.1 0.4 0.8 None
15/06 PM 2.4 0.7 0.7 None
&&
$$
MDZ012-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1600Z/
Kent MD-
451 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...
* LOCATIONS...Kent MD.
* TIMING...Until noon EDT today.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half foot of inundation
above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near
shorelines and tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/07 AM 3.5 1.8 1.8 Minor
13/08 PM 3.2 1.5 1.3 None
14/07 AM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
14/08 PM 2.7 1.0 0.7 None
15/08 AM 2.1 0.4 0.5 None
15/09 PM 2.6 0.9 0.6 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-026-131200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T1200Z/
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
451 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE BACK BAYS OF OCEAN
COUNTY THROUGH 8 AM...
* LOCATIONS...Coastal Ocean and Ocean.
* TIMING...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half foot of inundation
above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near
shorelines and tidal waterways.
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.0 ft, Moderate 2.0 ft, Major 3.0 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/08 AM 3.6 1.1 0.9 Minor
13/08 PM 3.1 0.6 0.5 None
14/08 AM 3.3 0.8 0.6 None
14/08 PM 2.9 0.4 0.5 None
15/09 AM 3.1 0.6 0.3 None
15/09 PM 2.6 0.1 0.2 None
&&
$$147
WHUS41 KPHI 131200
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING...
MDZ015-019-020-131500-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1500Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
* LOCATIONS...Talbot, Queen Annes and Caroline.
* TIMING...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half of a foot of inundation
above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near
shorelines and tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/04 AM 3.8 2.1 2.4 Minor
13/05 PM 3.3 1.6 1.7 None
14/05 AM 2.8 1.1 1.4 None
14/05 PM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
15/05 AM 2.1 0.4 0.8 None
15/06 PM 2.4 0.7 0.7 None
&&
$$
MDZ012-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1600Z/
Kent MD-
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...
* LOCATIONS...Kent MD.
* TIMING...Until noon EDT today.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half foot of inundation
above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near
shorelines and tidal waterways.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually, the most vulnerable roadways will flood.
Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged, leading to
costly repairs.
Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/07 AM 3.5 1.8 1.8 Minor
13/08 PM 3.2 1.5 1.3 None
14/07 AM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
14/08 PM 2.7 1.0 0.7 None
15/08 AM 2.1 0.4 0.5 None
15/09 PM 2.6 0.9 0.6 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-026-131500-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T1500Z/
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH HIGH TIDE THIUS
MORNING AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
* LOCATIONS...Coastal Ocean and Ocean.
* TIMING...Until 11 AM EDT this morning.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half foot of inundation
above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near
shorelines and tidal waterways.
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.0 ft, Moderate 2.0 ft, Major 3.0 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/08 AM 3.6 1.1 0.9 Minor
13/08 PM 3.1 0.6 0.5 None
14/08 AM 3.3 0.8 0.6 None
14/08 PM 2.9 0.4 0.5 None
15/09 AM 3.1 0.6 0.3 None
15/09 PM 2.6 0.1 0.2 None
&&
$$429
WHUS41 KPHI 131304
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
904 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING...
MDZ015-019-020-131415-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1500Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
904 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Coastal Flood Advisory.
Tides are falling far enough that additional flooding over the
next high tide cycle is not expected.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Eastern Bay at Claiborne
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.4 ft, Moderate 4.4 ft, Major 5.4 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.7 ft, Moderate 2.7 ft, Major 3.7 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/05 PM 3.3 1.6 1.7 None
14/05 AM 2.8 1.1 1.4 None
14/05 PM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
15/05 AM 2.1 0.4 0.8 None
15/06 PM 2.4 0.7 0.7 None
&&
$$
MDZ012-131415-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191013T1600Z/
Kent MD-
904 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Coastal Flood Advisory.
Tides are falling far enough that additional flooding over the
next high tide cycle is not expected.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.8 ft, Major 3.8 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/08 PM 3.2 1.5 1.3 None
14/07 AM 2.7 1.0 1.1 None
14/08 PM 2.7 1.0 0.7 None
15/08 AM 2.1 0.4 0.5 None
15/09 PM 2.6 0.9 0.6 None
&&
$$
NJZ020-026-131900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T1900Z/
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
904 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE BACK BAYS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS...Coastal Ocean and Ocean.
* TIMING...Until 3 PM EDT this afternoon.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one half of a foot of
inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas
near shorelines and tidal waterways for the back bays.
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.0 ft, Moderate 2.0 ft, Major 3.0 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/08 AM 3.6 1.1 0.9 Minor
13/08 PM 3.1 0.6 0.5 None
14/08 AM 3.3 0.8 0.6 None
14/08 PM 2.9 0.4 0.5 None
15/09 AM 3.1 0.6 0.3 None
15/09 PM 2.6 0.1 0.2 None
&&
$$866
WHUS41 KPHI 131843
CFWPHI
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
243 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
NJZ020-026-131945-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.S.0006.000000T0000Z-191013T1900Z/
Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
243 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019
...COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS CANCELLED...
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Coastal Flood Statement.
Water is finally receeding from the previous high tide and no
additional flooding is expected.
&&
Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.
Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light
MLLW Categories - Minor 3.5 ft, Moderate 4.5 ft, Major 5.5 ft
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.0 ft, Moderate 2.0 ft, Major 3.0 ft
Total Total Departure
Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Flood
ft MLLW ft MHHW ft Impact
-------- --------- --------- --------- --------
13/08 AM 3.6 1.1 0.9 Minor
13/08 PM 3.1 0.6 0.5 None
14/08 AM 3.3 0.8 0.6 None
14/08 PM 2.9 0.4 0.5 None
15/09 AM 3.1 0.6 0.3 None
15/09 PM 2.6 0.1 0.2 None
&&
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this coastal flood statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood statement went out at Oct 12, 12:46 PM EDT, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 12, 12:46 PM EDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1246 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical Storm Melissa will continue to move further out to sea
today. A weak cold front will move through tonight. High pressure
will follow for Sunday. A wave of low pressure will track across the
southern portion of the area on Sunday night with a period of rain
possible. An area of high pressure will build in for Monday and
Tuesday. On Wednesday, a frontal system is likely to affect the
region, before a large area of high pressure builds in for the end
of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 update: Put up coastal flood advisories for this
afternoon's high tide cycle on the eastern shore of Maryland
south of Cecil county
Previous discussion:
As of 949am... No significant changes to the forecast. Current
trends of obs looks good to go from a sensible weather
perspective. Based on trends from surge guidance we did go ahead
and extend the Coastal Flood Advisory for the Delaware River in
the Philadelphia area for the potential of minor flooding. Hope
you get to enjoy your weekend.
Previous discussion...A coastal storm well
offshore will begin to move away later today. A cold front will
affect the area this afternoon and into the early evening. There
will be some clouds near the coast early today and more N/W
with the cold front. Not much in the way of any precip is
expected today. a slight chc for showers is in the fcst for the
farthest N/W areas with some moisture associated with the front.
It will be a mild day with a fair amount of sunshine expected.
Highs will be in the low 70s in most areas with some mid/upper
60s across the N and W areas. Winds will be mostly N or NW at 5
to 10 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build towards the region tonight. Fair weather is
expected with some increasing clouds across the southern areas late.
Low temperatures tonight will be seasonably cool with low/mid 40s
N/W and upper 40s to low 50s for metro Philadelphia, Delmarva and
coastal NJ. Winds will be light.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview...
A progressive fall pattern develops for the next seven days. The
stagnant upper air maps of summer are no more, as we are into a
regime of active split flow with multiple disturbances coming at us
over the upcoming week, though most of the long term period will
actually feature dry and pleasant weather. It all begins with the
departure of Melissa, which by Sunday will be far enough away to not
have any influence over us outside of lingering high seas, though
even those will be diminishing. An area of high pressure will build
in on Sunday behind the unimpressive cold frontal passage on
Saturday night. For Monday and Tuesday we will see high pressure
firmly in control with pleasant weather. Likely the most impactful
system of the long term period comes on Wednesday as we see both a
northern and southern stream disturbance pass near the region. These
disturbances should phase nearby to us and create a large and
powerful storm to our northeast. However, that storm system will be
a progressive one with little or no blocking in place to the north.
So by Thursday and Friday, as broad high pressure builds back in, we
should see a quick return to dry and comfortable conditions to end
the week.
Dailies...
Sunday-Sunday night...High pressure will build in behind the
Saturday night front, so the daylight hours on Sunday look mainly
dry with temperatures a little on the warm side of normal given a
lack of cold air behind the weak cold front. We do have a minor
system to contend with on Sunday night. The decaying frontal
boundary from Saturday night isn't going to make it very far
offshore. A weak southern stream impulse will amplify slightly as it
tracks a little to our south, and will help spur the development of
a weak wave of low pressure which will track along the old front.
It's a fast moving wave, but agreement remains reasonably strong for
a period of rain mainly across the southern half of the region on
Sunday night. The 12.0z NAM is bullish on QPF with a stripe of up to
an inch or so of rain over Delmarva and southern NJ, but expect this
is overdone as the NAM seems to be banking on too much in the way of
convective elements. Other guidance is lighter on QPF, and favored
that line of thinking for now.
Monday-Tuesday night... High pressure. Not much else to say, as the
two days will be near carbon copies of each other, each day being
very nice. Warm temps Monday with highs mainly in the low 70s, but
falling down into the 40s at night thanks to low dew points.
Slightly cooler on Tuesday due a bit of weak CAA aloft, but warmer
Tuesday night than Monday night as WAA begins ahead of an
approaching storm.
Wednesday... A pair of disturbances approach on Wednesday, one a
robust shortwave and developing surface low coming out of the Great
Lakes, and the other a southern stream wave carrying quite a bit of
moisture moving in from the southwest. It's a good set of
ingredients to turn two small storms into one big storm, and indeed
these two systems will likely start to phase near us on Wednesday.
The timing of the phase and the tracks of the two phasing components
will determine our rain totals. There is a scenario on the table,
though not currently favored by most guidance, where the phasing is
a little slower and we end up mainly in the narrow dry slot between
the northern and southern stream systems. However, should the phase
occur a little sooner, or even if the juicy southern stream wave
tracks far enough north to put us within its rain shield, then
higher totals are likely. Regardless, Wednesday looks wet and
unsettled, with details to be ironed out in coming days.
Thursday-Friday... As the Wednesday storm system departs, a large
area of high pressure looks to build in behind it. This should lock
in dry weather for the end of the week and probably even into at
least early next weekend. Will have to watch to see how strong the
departing Wednesday storm gets. If it wraps up as much as most of
the global models have been indicating, gusty winds would occur
Thursday. Winds will relax by later Thursday and Friday. Strong CAA
on the back side of the low should yield a chilly fall day Thursday,
especially given the winds, with moderation towards Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Today...Except for some high-end MVFR CIGS near KACY early this
morning, VFR is anticipated for today. A cold front will cross the
area this afternoon with some low level cloudiness assd with it. For
now we will mention some BKN-OVC 040-050 for the tafs sites with the
fropa. The better chc for this will be across the nrn areas. Winds
will be N/NE around 5 knots this morning them 5 to 10 knots from the
NW this afternoon.
Tonight...High pressure will begin to build in tonight. VFR is
expected with mostly high clouds expected. Winds will be light from
the W or NW.
Outlook...
Sunday... VFR. Light southeast wind.
Sunday night... Mainly VFR, but MVFR possible especially for ILG,
MIV, and ACY with rain showers. Light wind shifting from south-
southeasterly to west-southwesterly.
Monday-Tuesday... VFR. Winds remaining very light and generally from
the west though may be light and variable or near calm at times.
Tuesday night... VFR initially, but MVFR possible late. Winds
turn southeasterly at 5 to 10 kt.
Wednesday... MVFR/IFR likely with rain. Southerly winds becoming
southwesterly then westerly with gusts to 20 kt possible. Could also
be LLWS concerns on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA flag will remain for now. The coastal storm will withdraw today
as high pressure builds in this morning. A cold front will cross the
waters late today. Winds will decrease this morning, so the SCA by
afternoon will be just for the 5 to 6 ft seas will will gradually
lower tonight. Fair weather today and tonight.
Outlook...
Sunday-Thursday... Seas look to finally fall below SCA criteria
early Sunday. Once they do, should see sub-SCA conditions through
most of Wednesday. By later Wednesday and especially Wednesday night
and Thursday, marine headlines are likely as a frontal system
impacts the region.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Subtropical Storm Melissa continues to pull away from the
region, however, some coastal flood impacts continue. Water
levels remain elevated regionwide with the Chesapeake Bay
displaying the greatest anomalies.
For the Chesapeake Bay... Issued Coastal Flood Advisories for
this afternoon's high tide for the eastern shore of Maryland
south of Cecil county. With winds not solidly NW over the area
yet expect that elevated water levels from the previous high
tide cycles will remain (although staying below warning
criteria).
For all other areas... After widespread coastal flooding over the
past couple of days, the worst of the flooding has passed. Some
minor tidal flooding will remain possible early this afternoon
over the lower portion of the tidal Delaware and thus advisories
remain up for the next few hours. Otherwise expect generally
spotty minor to sub-minor tides with this upcoming PM tide
cycle. However trends will need to continue to be monitored as
the forecast for some sites remain near advisory levels.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
PAZ070-071.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
NJZ017-018.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
DEZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
this evening for MDZ012.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ015-
019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ450>455.
&&
Synopsis...O'Brien
Near Term...Deal/O'Hara
Short Term...O'Hara
Long Term...O'Brien
Aviation...O'Brien/O'Hara
Marine...O'Brien/O'Hara
Tides/Coastal Flooding...O'Brien/CarrHazardous weather outlook, Oct 12, 5:24 AM EDT, 9 hours 41 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 524 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 NJZ001-007>010-012-015-017>019-021-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071- 101>106-130930- Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh- Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- 524 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ008-012-015-019-020-130930- Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline- 524 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. DEZ001-NJZ016-130930- New Castle-Salem- 524 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-130930- Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth- Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington- 524 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern Delaware, central New Jersey and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ430-431-450>455-130930- Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 524 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and Delaware Bay Waters. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Oct 12, 2:36 PM EDT, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
236 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1146 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 SSW BRICK 39.99N 74.06W
10/12/2019 OCEAN NJ PUBLIC
PICTURES ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW FLOODING ON
BOTH ROUTE 35 SOUTH AND NORTH. ROADS FLOODED
ON SIDE STREETS IN AREA AS WELL.
&&
MPSLocal storm report, Oct 12, 2:46 PM EDT, 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0233 PM COASTAL FLOOD FENWICK ISLAND 38.46N 75.05W
10/12/2019 SUSSEX DE PUBLIC
IMAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOW MINOR BAY SIDE
FLOODING IN FENWICK ISLAND ON DAGSBORO ST
AND COASTAL HIGHWAY.
&&
MPSNearby
Coastal Flood Statements in New Jersey, 2019Every coastal flood statement in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.