Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Pendleton, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
128 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...Convection beginning to
redevelop early this afternoon, mainly from Wallowa County
southwest to Central Oregon. Latest high resolution models show
activity increasing late this afternoon, merging into a
convective complex as it moves north into northern Oregon this
evening in association with a strong shortwave trough. Will
increase PoPs to categorical for this complex, with scattered
convection for most other areas. With deep layer shear of around
40 KT, some of the storms will become strong to severe, with
strong winds and large hail the main threats. With layer moisture
increasing, locally heavy rainfall with also be possible with the
stronger storms. Precipitation coverage will lessen somewhat
overnight between the potent shortwave and the parent trough
still to the southwest. Showers/storms will increase once again
Saturday as the trough crosses the area. Deep layer shear will
not be as robust as today, but still sufficient enough for a few
strong storms Saturday afternoon, especially across eastern
sections. The trough will move east Sunday with residual precip
ending. Dry zonal flow will prevail Monday for mostly clear and
seasonably mild conditions.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday. Below normal temperatures
are in store for the week.  There will be west to southwest flow
Monday night through Wednesday ahead of the trough that should move
through Wednesday night and Thursday.  The trough will bring in
another bit of cooler air and a few showers over the mountain areas.
The trough lingers on Friday with some showers along the Washington
Cascades and northeast Oregon mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...00z Tafs...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
central Oregon this evening and move north into Washington during
the evening hours.  Ceilings and visibilities may briefly become
MVFR during heavier periods of rain.  Winds will be 10-20 kts with
higher gusts, decreasing by late evening.  Thunderstorms will
produce variable and gusty winds. Expect thunderstorm activity to
diminish after about 10z with sct-bkn clouds through the early
morning with generally light winds. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will affect most TAF sites Saturday after 18Z and
continue into the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorms will become increasingly wet as
the moisture profile increases tonight/Saturday. However,
with lightning frequency remaining abundant, will keep the
Red Flag Warnings through Saturday. These may need to be extended
into Saturday evening if scattered thunderstorms persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  58  78  55  75 /  60  60  80  10
ALW  62  82  58  78 /  40  60  80  20
PSC  65  84  61  80 /  40  40  80  20
YKM  61  82  56  79 /  50  60  50   0
HRI  61  83  57  80 /  50  40  70  10
ELN  60  79  56  74 /  50  60  60  10
RDM  51  74  47  75 /  80  80  70   0
LGD  58  76  54  72 /  70  80  80  10
GCD  54  78  52  75 /  80  90  80  10
DLS  64  82  60  79 /  50  30  30   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ639.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ610-611-640>645.

WA...Red Flag Warning until 3 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ639-641-675-681.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 AM PDT Saturday for WAZ643-645.

&&

80/93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
410 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

ORZ049-050-502-503-100000-
Grande Ronde Valley OR-Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon OR-
Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon OR-Wallowa County OR-
410 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UMATILLA...
SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND NORTHERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM PDT...

At 409 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
La Grande, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Grande, Union, Elgin, Island City, Cove, Imbler, Summerville,
Hilgard and Starkey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 11817 4502 11819 4499 11821 4482 11856
      4512 11870 4566 11788 4534 11751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 224DEG 34KT 4525 11806

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
412 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

ORZ506-511-100000-
Central Oregon OR-Ochoco-John Day Highlands OR-
412 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CROOK AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM PDT...

At 412 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Prineville, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prineville, Grizzly and Powell Butte.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM PDT for
central Oregon.

LAT...LON 4412 12061 4416 12097 4443 12115 4470 12074
      4443 12051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 187DEG 25KT 4434 12085

vp

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 PM PDT FRI AUG 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             PRINEVILLE              44.31N 120.84W
08/09/2019  E0.25 INCH       CROOK              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

JAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
418 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

ORZ509-511-100000-
Central Oregon OR-East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades OR-
418 PM PDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM PDT...

At 417 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Camp Sherman, or 23 miles northwest of Redmond, moving north at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Black Butte Ranch, Camp Sherman and southern Warm Springs
Reservation.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM PDT for
central Oregon.

LAT...LON 4434 12143 4433 12171 4475 12176 4476 12125
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 190DEG 25KT 4446 12157

vp

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