Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Pendleton, OR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
851 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2019

.UPDATE...High pressure remains centered over the region this
morning though it is shifting eastward. It will be a hot day with
temperatures mainly in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the lower
elevations and in the 80s in the mountains. Temperatures will be
approaching record highs in a number of locations. Did lower
temperatures a degree or so in some locations as model guidance
was a bit lower than our forecast. Models are showing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in central Oregon and along the higher
terrain of the eastern Oregon mountains late this afternoon and
early evening. Water vapor imagery is showing a wave in northern
California and another off the Oregon coast so this seems
plausible. The limiting factor will be moisture aloft. Any showers
and thunderstorms will taper off late in the evening. Made some
slight changes to the thunderstorm coverage and cloud cover. Rest
of the forecast is in good shape and few changes were made.
Forecast update already out. Perry

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS......FEW-SCT cirrus over much of the region
today with light terrain driven winds. Will see some high-based
showers/thunderstorms developing across central Oregon this
afternoon near BDN/RDM drifting east along the southern fringes of
the forecast area through the evening. Given rather steep low-
level lapse rates and wide dewpoint depressions will see some
gusty and erratic winds around any storms. Peck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2019/

SHORT TERM...High pressure ridge will be shifting east today with
a weak low pressure area nearing the coast of northern California.
This will lead to some mid level moisture moving north into
central Oregon for a slight chance of thunderstorms by late this
afternoon and evening. On Thursday, the flow becomes west to
northwest with some moisture and instability over far eastern
Oregon with a slight chance of showers and a thunderstorm. It will
be hot today with near record temperatures in areas along and just
east of the Cascades and a few locations in southeast Washington.
It will still be quite hot on Thursday for most areas with near
record temperatures possible, although areas just east of the
Cascades will see slightly cooler readings. On Thursday winds will
increase across much of the lower elevations as cooler air moves
through the mountain gaps and passes. On Friday, the west to
northwest flow continues with temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees
cooler than Thursday.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...Models in good
agreement in overall weather pattern across the Pacific Northwest.
An upper level ridge is expected to move across the area Saturday.
The ridge exits the region Sunday as a weak disturbance moves over
the area.  Dry, northwest upper level flow develops in the wake of
the aforementioned disturbance and continues through Wednesday.
Despite some minor differences in timing of embedded shortwaves in
the northwest flow, the weather is expected to remain dry through
the period.  There could be some afternoon buildups over the
Washington Cascades Tuesday, but will keep it dry at this time. Earle

FIRE WEATHER...There continues to be a slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over central Oregon and
then again over far eastern Oregon on Thursday afternoon.
However, fuels have not yet become critical in the in the forest
areas so there will be no watch or warning issued for that.
Elsewhere, lower elevation grassland fuels have reached critical
levels and we are expecting some increasing westerly winds late
Thursday in conjunction will low relative humidities so a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for some fire zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  91  64  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  95  68  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  95  66  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  94  66  94  61 /   0  10   0   0
HRI  96  66  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  90  63  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  91  57  88  51 /  10  20   0   0
LGD  88  60  89  55 /  10  10  10   0
GCD  90  60  89  54 /  10  30  10   0
DLS  97  68  91  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for ORZ610-639>641.

WA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for WAZ639-641-675.

&&

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