Special Weather Statement, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
202 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmth, humidity, and daily thunderstorm chances will continue
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Scattered thunderstorms expected through mid afternoon as convection
begins to fire off with a focus along the observed sfc theta-e ridge
where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to low 70s with mid 80/low 90
sfc temperatures. A fairly significant layer of warmer air should be
moving in between 700mb and 850mb continuing into the afternoon which
may put a lid on additional activity from mid-afternoon on. Have
maintained a mention of isolated thunderstorms for now but may need
to make adjustments if it looks more certain convective activity is
going to be shut down.

Tonight models hint at the possibility of a decaying MCS from earlier
in the day to our west crossing the region around midnight so have
opted to include slight chances for a brief period overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect mainly diurnally supported isolated to scattered
thunderstorms Monday as convective thresholds are again met. With
somewhat less instability from near PIT and south, and weak ridging,
continued with lower/isolated POPs in this area, with slightly higher
POPs/scattered coverage north. Above average temperature is expected
to continue Monday.

Zonal flow, north of a Southern CONUS high, is expected to persist
across the region Tuesday. Shortwaves embedded in the flow should
maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm chances as warm and humid
conditions continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A trough, and its associated cold front, are expected to track from
the Upper Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great Lakes regions by
Wednesday. Included a period of likely POPs with FROPA. Surface high
pressure building under NE CONUS upper troughing should return dry,
cooler and less humid weather by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Iso/sct tstms are expected this aftn/eve with increased diurnal
heating in a moist, unstable environment, but the lack of coherent
lifting mechanisms makes it difficult to pinpoint timing/location.
Best chances will be around/north of I-80 given the presence of
residual outflow boundaries for initiation and cooler temps aloft to
not cap the unstable environment. The loss of heating and the
subsequent more stable environment will cause storms to dissipate.

Disagreement persists with an overnight shortwave and its ability to
allow a storm complex to move from the western Great Lakes to the
upper Ohio River Valley. Given that much the outcome is dependent on
the evolution of convection this aftn/eve, confidence remains low on
storm potential/timing overnight. Have included mention of VCSH to
acknowledge potential. More confidently, mid/upper-level cloud
advection with this wave will help limit morning fog development,
with any restrictions brief and of minimal impact.

.Outlook...
Mainly aftn/eve restrictions are possible thru Tue with diurnal
tstms. Restrictions are likely with a Wed cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
404 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

MDZ001-OHZ059-068-069-PAZ031-074>076-WVZ004-012-021-509>514-190815-
Garrett-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Greene-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
404 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and
northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073-
WVZ001>003-190815-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-
Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-
Westmoreland-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
404 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Damaging wind gusts or a moisture laden downburst is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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