Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
120 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The risk for showers and storms, some of which could be severe, will
continue through Wednesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances
will then continue into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Lull in radar coverage currently in the wake of the overnight/early
morning convection,  but more strong to severe activity is
anticipated later today and this evening. Surface low pressure will
track to our north near the Lake Erie shore, along a nearly
stationary frontal boundary. CAMs are supportive of generating
convection near the boundary starting around 19Z, with storms
generally tracking ESE after development. South of the front, good
instability will build up thanks to sufficient sunshine, with HREF
mean SBCAPE of between 2500 and 3500 J/kg generally north of I-70.
Overall shear profile is certainly supportive of severe weather, with
more of a speed than a directional component in the 0-6km layer.
Wind/hail still appear to be the main threats given the shear, the
potentially deep CAPE profiles, and strong mid-level flow. A tornado
or two will also be possible, although low-level directional shear is
a bit low for a higher probability of that threat. With the heavier
storms remaining generally north of I-70, and with FFG values higher
here as opposed to the south, think that any flooding issues should
remain isolated at best. However, this threat will need to be
reassessed tomorrow as another round of storms is anticipated. Minor
changes made to afternoon temperatures, mainly upward a degree or
two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Convection will gradually diminish overnight Tuesday with the loss
of heating.

Strong southeast CONUS ridging will continue through Wednesday
before a deep high-plains low ejects towards the eastern CONUS.
Wednesday will be warm with a chance of rain in the late afternoon
and evening as small perturbations move through zonal-flow aloft.

The aforementioned low will then bring rain and slightly cooler
weather on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain will continue into Friday before upper flow flattens out again.

After Friday, expect daily rain chances with each passing shortwave
trough or perturbation in the quasi-zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon due to a
combination of lift along a weak cold frontal boundary just south of
Erie and daytime destabilization. Storm will move east southeast with
the 700mb flow through the evening hours, and likely will impact
most sites north of I-70 with the strongest storms along the I-80
corridor. Less certainty on the southern and western extent of these
storms, and will largely be dictated by these storms creating their
own cold pool and driving the frontal boundary farther south than
projected.

Widespread restrictions are likely to develop Wednesday morning in
the wake of today's convection, as increased moisture in the boundary
layer will remain stuck under a low level inversion. Though not
likely considering expected cloud cover, valley fog will be possible
if some clearing occurs.

.Outlook...
Periodic restriction potential will continue through Fri as rounds of
storms and associated disturbances cross the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
205 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

OHZ039>041-049-050-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076-WVZ001-002-
291815-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-
205 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 274 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected once again
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging
wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado is possible as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ001-OHZ048-057>059-068-069-PAZ031-WVZ003-004-012-021-509>514-
291815-
Garrett-Coshocton-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Greene-
Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
205 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and
northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and this evening. The main threat will be damaging wind
gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado is possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected once again
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be damaging
wind gusts and large hail. An isolated tornado is possible as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE NEW ATHENS        40.16N  80.98W
05/25/2019                   BELMONT            OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TWO TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 9 NEAR BELMONT AND HARRISON
            COUNTY BORDER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1902125

JF

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