Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
248 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmth and humidity builds this weekend, with daily thunderstorm
chances mainly during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Developing scattered thunderstorms will continue as a shortwave
trough moves across the forecast area. Anticipate the best coverage
to occur north of PIT where better shortwave support is progged in
conjunction with an encroaching 300mb 60kt jet streak. At the
surface, dewpoint values in the mid to upper 60s will support
modest instability. Instability, combined with shear aloft will
support isolated instances of severe storms, however poor mid- level
lapse rates and weak low- level shear should be limiting factors for
widespread, organized convection. If a stronger updraft occurs,
primary hazards would be damaging wind and hail. High temperature
should be a few degrees above average.

Showers and thunderstorms should diminish this evening with exiting
shortwave support and waning instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Expect mainly diurnally supported isolated to scattered
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday as convective thresholds are again
met. With somewhat less instability from near PIT and south, and weak
ridging, continued with lower/isolated POPs in this area, with
slightly higher POPs/scattered coverage north. With the instability,
heat and humidity, an isolated storm could be severe, though, again,
poor lapse rates should dampen this potential. Above average
temperature is expected to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow, north of a Southern CONUS high, is expected to persist
across the region Tuesday. Shortwaves embedded in the flow should
maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm chances as warm and humid
conditions continue. A trough, and its associated cold front, are
expected to track from the Upper Midwest to the Upper OH Valley/Great
Lakes regions by Wednesday. Included a period of likely POPs with
FROPA. Surface high pressure building under NE CONUS upper troughing
should return dry, cooler and less humid weather by Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period outside of any showers or
storms that impact the I-80 corridor later this afternoon and
evening. Included VCTS mention in latest TAFs.

.Outlook...
Aftn/eve restrictions are possible Mon with an approaching cold
front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
206 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073-074-
WVZ001>003-181815-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-
Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-
Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
206 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated, severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
early evening, capable of producing damaging wind and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MDZ001-OHZ068-069-PAZ031-075-076-WVZ004-012-021-509>514-181815-
Garrett-Noble-Monroe-Greene-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
206 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and
northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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