Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
756 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning should become more
numerous this afternoon with the approach of a cold front. Dry
weather is then expected Friday and most of Saturday under high
pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Updated short term PoPs and temperature to reflect radar and surface
observation trends. Areas of stronger convection are producing
moderate to heavy rain, with minor flooding in urbanized areas
expected. Previous discuss follows...

A shortwave trough should maintain scattered
showers and thunderstorms this morning as it crosses the region.
Included more numerous coverage early N of PIT based on radar/near
term model trends. A stronger trough, and its associated sfc cold
front, is progged to track across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region today, crossing the Upper OH Valley region late this afternoon
and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with its approach
and passage.

Increasing shear, building instability, and model progged mid level
dry air should result in a scattered severe storm potential, with the
main hazard being damaging wind. SPC maintained the slight
risk/scattered coverage potential in the day 1 outlook, and will
continue to highlight this potential in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook. Warm and humid conditions should continue, with highs a few
degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Shower/thunderstorm chances should quickly decrease tonight with the
passage of the cold front. Mainly dry weather is then expected
through most of Saturday as sfc high pressure builds under NW flow
aloft. The next shortwave trough and its associated cold front is
progged to track from the Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Lakes by
Saturday evening, returning low chances for showers and thunderstorms
N of I 80. Maintained only a slight chance for showers Saturday
night elsewhere as the front tracks south, though most of the upper
support is progged to stay N-NE of the area.

Cooler and less humid conditions are expected Friday before warmer,
more humid conditions return Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm chances should continue S of I 70 Sunday as
the cold front completes its passage. Model ensembles indicate ridging
is then expected to build across the region through Tuesday, with
mainly dry weather. Shower/thunderstorm chances return by midweek as
a Gulf upper low moves N and phases with wrly flow aloft, tracking
across the OH Valley region. Seasonably warm weather is expected
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Condition deterioration is expected as the day progresses. More
widespread convection will result from prefrontal troughing/increasing
forcing for ascent under an encroaching upr trough. The magnitude of
that convection remains questionable as clouds and morning showers
are likely to hamper destabilization.

Passage of the cold front will end the convection, but residual,
rain-enforced boundary-layer moisture with cooler nw flow is likely
to yield cig restrictions into Friday morning.

.Outlook...
The next chc for restrictions is anticipated with a Saturday night
shortwave/cdfnt passage.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
338 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-120745-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-
Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-
Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-
Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-
Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
338 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening with a crossing cold front. The primary hazard is expected
to be damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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