Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
339 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and some gusty wind can be
expected into tonight in a warm, humid air mass. A cold front
will drop across the region tonight and into Sunday, bringing
slightly drier air and decreasing rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have become fairly widespread in the warm
and humid air mass this afternoon. Some modest support is being
provided by the approaching cold front as well as some weak
divergence aloft provided by right entrance region jet dynamics.
Increased mid-level flow has allowed for faster storm motions thus
far, keeping rainfall amounts in check for the most part. More
east/west aligned flow may set up over southern portions of the flash
flood watch over the next few hours, which may yet produce a few
instances of training storms and excessive rainfall. A generally
isolated severe risk will continue as well, with gusty winds provided
by spotty downbursts.

The front will meander through the region tonight, ending up in the
vicinity of the Mason-Dixon Line by 12Z. Expect storm coverage to
diurnally decrease this evening/overnight, but the presence of the
boundary and moisture should allow for at least scattered showers
during the predawn hours. Warm and muggy conditions will continue,
with only modestly cooler/drier air behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The front will likely hang up over northern West Virginia on Sunday,
with a weak wave of low pressure riding eastward along it. Will keep
mostly chance PoPs in the forecast, with a north-to-south gradient.
Thinking right now is that the deepest moisture will get shunted off
to the south and east, lessening the threat of flash flooding. This
will have to be monitored though as areas in northern West Virginia
may still be susceptible.

High pressure building southward across the Great Lakes will finally
push the front mostly to the south by Monday. However, low-level
moist flow into the ridges may continue to produce some showers and a
few thunderstorms during the afternoon. Areas from Pittsburgh to the
north and west should remain dry. Temperatures will be seasonable,
with less oppressive humidity by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue dry weather on Tuesday. Rain chances
return by Wednesday, and become more widespread by Thursday, as
shortwave energy arrives from the Great Lakes. A frontal passage on
Thursday will be followed by surface high pressure and flattening
ridging Friday and Saturday, with drier weather expected.
Temperatures will warm above normal during the midweek period under
shortwave ridging, before moderating back toward normal by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorm coverage, and associated restrictions, are
expected to increase this afternoon with the encroachment of a cold
front. Expect further deterioration tonight with boundary saturation
and frontal passage. While some guidance is indicating IFR
restrictions by sunrise, which is definitely possible and may end up
being widespread, have elected to keep all sites but HLG/ZZV at MVFR
restrictions around sunrise pending how much rainfall occurs at
individual terminals this afternoon/evening. Whatever restrictions do
develop overnight should begin to ease by late Sunday morning.

.Outlook...
Restrictions should end fm N-S Sunday with building high pres,
although showers will still be possible at all terminals except
FKL/DUJ on Sunday. Widespread restriction potential returns late Wed
with a approaching cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-073-074.
     Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ031-075-076.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ012-021-509>514.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1139 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

MDZ001-PAZ031-075-076-WVZ012-021-509>514-071545-
Garrett-Greene-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1139 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, southwest
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073-074-071545-
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Westmoreland-
Westmoreland Ridges-
1139 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania,
southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania and western
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-WVZ001>004-071545-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
1139 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northern
West Virginia and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Localized flash flooding is possible in thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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