Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
530 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid weather is expected through the weekend, with daily
shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
the evening with a destabilized atmosphere and a slow moving shortwave
trough in place across Wrn PA to WV. Will maintain the Flash Flood
Watch as is for now, though this potential should decrease as
instability wanes early this evening. Otherwise, some isolated
flooding is possible where training occurs. Warm mid levels and the
resulting poor lapse rates should preclude a severe weather
potential.

Precip coverage should decrease as instability diminishes this
evening, though isolated showers are still possible overnight as the
shortwave trough continues to track slowly E across the region. warm
and humid conditions should continue with lows around 70 for most
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As low pressure moves across Quebec and high pressure starts to build
into the northern Great Lakes on Saturday, the front which has been
lingering north of our area will begin to push into our area. The
front may provide more of a focus for lift, and modestly improving
mid-level flow could allow for a marginally higher severe weather
threat during the day. However, the main threat will continue to be
flash flooding as ingredients such as anomalously high PWAT, deep
warm cloud depths, and sufficient instability/lift remain in place.
Another Flash Flood Watch is certainly a possibility.

The front will make some progress through the region Sunday, but it
is questionable just how far south it will reach. Thus, had to keep
some low PoPs for the region, focused mainly southeast of Pittsburgh.
Much of the deeper moisture will have departed though, and the
flooding threat is expected to lessen. Temperatures will not drop
much behind the boundary, although dewpoints may moderate a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much of the region should be dry Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
noses into the region. However, low-level moist flow into the ridges
may continue to produce some showers and a few thunderstorms both
afternoons. More generalized rain chances return by Wednesday as
shortwave energy arrives from the Great Lakes, with drier weather
perhaps returning by Friday. Temperatures will generally remain near
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers/tstms should diminish this evening with waning
instability, though isolated showers are still possible tonight with
a slow moving shortwave trough. Otherwise, VFR is expected outisde
of any shra/ts this eve. Patchy MVFR/local IFR vsbys are expected
again tonight in the warm, humid conditions. Showers and
thunderstorm coverage, and associated restrictions, are expected to
increase Sat with the approach and passage of a cold front.

.Outlook...
Restrictions should end fm N-S Sun with an exiting cdfnt. Restriction
potential returns Wed with a approaching cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ074-076.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ510>514.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
407 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

MDZ001-PAZ074-076-WVZ510>514-062015-
Garrett-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette Ridges-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
407 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, southwest
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Localized flash flooding is possible through Saturday in
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-062015-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
407 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, northwest
Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and northern panhandle
of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Localized flash flooding is possible this evening in thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Localized flash flooding is possible Saturday in thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.