Special Weather Statement, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Ongoing threat for at least isolated severe thunderstorms over
portions of southern IL/sw IN/nw KY and se MO exists as
conditions have become very unstable with SBCAPEs running up from
4000-5000 J/KG over the current severe thunderstorm watch area. In
addition, a weak mid level pertabation embedded within a broad nw
flow regime is expected to enhance effective bulk shear into
30-35 kt range, which is about 10 kts higher than was expected
yesterday. Though still a bit modest in normal conditions, this
shear combined with the extreme instability could lead to an
enhanced severe storm potential. Along with a hail potential,
DCAPES running above 1200 J/KG are also supportive of damaging
downburst winds in the stronger storms.

Storms should continue to develop and push southeast through the
watch area late this afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Thereafter, overall weakening is expected and the severe threat
should lower substantially.

The rest of the overnight hours and much of Wednesday is expected
to be generally precip free as weak high pressure moves in behind
the departing system. Only caveat for Wednesday afternoon could be
if another expected thunderstorm complex out over western MO Wed
morning can either hold together or put out an outflow boundary to
the se that could affect western portions of our se MO counties in
the afternoon. Confidence in this scenario is fairly low at this
time.

Yet another weak cold front is expected to drop south toward the
forecast area on Thursday within the continued broad nw flow
aloft. This will spark the next chc for at least some sct
thunderstorm activity over the region, most likely later in the
day and into Thursday night. Once again, expecting some moderate
to extreme instability to develop ahead of the front and 0-6 KM
Bulk Shear is only expected to be near 30 kts. Thus, could end up
with a situation similar to this afternoon, depending on the
timing of the front. Bears watching anyway.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

We will remain in northwest flow for the end of the week, with an
upper level ridge just to our west. However, a weak front will be
coming through the area from northwest to southeast Thursday evening
into early Friday morning. Therefore, drier air will eventually be
making its way southward into the area especially later in the day,
which should aid in diminishing rain chances, especially up in the
northern half of the area. Will maintain small chances in the
southern areas given residual moisture.

It should be rather quiet Friday night but the latest GFS indicates
that some energy will be rounding the top of the upper level ridge
late Friday night into Saturday morning. Depending on timing, the
remnants of...or redevelopment of activity...is possible by Saturday
evening which may even linger into Sunday, again depending on the
timing of the storms.  Due to these timing issues, PoPs will remain
fairly low for now.

By Sunday night into the first part of next week, it looks like the
upper level ridge that was to our west, will finally slide east
toward our area. This forces the more widespread activity to our
north for a little while. Monday also looks to be the warmest day of
the extended period with highs around 90 degrees. The flow flattens
out with time, putting our area in a more favored trajectory for
additional activity. Therefore it will remain unsettled enough to
warrant slight chances for days 6 & 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Thunderstorm development will be possible early this afternoon
near the I-64 corridor, with more organized thunderstorm activity
possible late this afternoon heading southeast across the
forecast area. Could be some hail and wind gusts 30-40 kts.
Isolated severe storms will also be possible, through tough to
call the exact placement and timing until development occurs. VFR
conditions with light winds should be the rule outside of any
convection.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
349 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-072100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
349 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and this evening. Some
storms may reach severe limits over part of southeast Illinois,
southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky. Damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary thunderstorm concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast off and on
Thursday through Monday. The highest storm chances will be during
the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy rain and deadly
lightning will be the primary hazard, though an isolated severe
storm or two cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be beneficial this afternoon and evening,
especially in locations along and east of the Mississippi River.

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