Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
154 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Monitoring northern reaches of the FA for best convective chances
this pm, as energy spills down out of IA/nrn IL, and upstream
convection takes shape. Already showing MUCAPES of 3-4K J/KG for
this to move in/feed upon, but sounding data still indicates
maybe some minor capping inversions to erode still further
south/in its path. CAMs all more or less develop a line of
convection across northern-central ptns of IL/IN this pm, then
sag that line southward toward us by the end of the afternoon, and
on thru our area during the evening/into the overnight. Have
upped pops accordingly, and messaged for updated risk enhancement
in our far north...with damaging winds (30%) the primary hazard,
but large hail (15%) not ruled out. Presumably the trend will be
diminishing overnight, but we'll see what's ongoing at that time,
as by then they may be fed enough to continue at least into/thru
the early evening hours with their strength.

After tonight, the upper Low currently over the southwest U.S.,
will have drifted into the southern Plains, and will be soon
entering the Mississippi river valley. Its presence will agitate
our warm/humid airmass, with basically a persistent, albeit
off/on, chance of showers and storms daily, thru the remainder of
the short term forecast. While isolated (pulse) strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out, this transition to a more tropically
sourced system means our primary hazard will be heavy
rain/flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Still eyeing heavy rainfall potential for the weekend with PWAT
values remaining around 2.0-2.2 inches across the region through
the Sunday. The trend seems to be to take the meandering cut off
low a little farther south than what was being depicted earlier in
the week, which puts the region in a little lighter total precip
regime. Rain/showers and thunderstorms will remain possible, but
coverage looks to be a bit lower, and may be more diurnally driven
on the northern half of the vertically stacked low pressure
system. Storm motion vectors will still be rather slow with weak
ambient flow, so localized heavy rainfall and flooding remains
plausible.

Monday an upper trough/jet max approaches from the west, nudges
our cut off low to the southeast and aids in pushing a front
through late Sunday night/Monday morning. This front will likely
lead to an increase in rain/thunder coverage initially, then be
followed by a much drier and somewhat cooler airmass. This should
set the stage for a pleasant few days with reduced relative
humidity (dewpoints in the 50s) and seasonable highs in the lower
80s vicinity amid mostly sunny skies. The trough axis is progged
to pass through on Wednesday but a lack of column moisture, for
now, looks to preclude significant precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Few clouds and southwest winds around 10 knots with some gusts AOA
20 knots can be expected at all TAF sites this afternoon.
Introduced VCTS at 00Z at all sites with VCTS or VCSH thereafter.
Some temporary reduced visibilities in thunderstorms/showers is
included in the NE (KMVN, KEVV and KOWB) for this evening.
Gradient winds will decrease by this evening although locally
gusty winds near thunderstorms can be expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...JGG
AVIATION...RLS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-061000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1139 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be igniting late this afternoon,
especially along and north of Interstate 64. These storms will
have the potential to be strong to severe, with damaging winds the
primary hazard. Large hail is also possible in a severe storm.
Lightning and heavy rain will be possible with any storms.

Refer to river flood warnings and statements for the latest on
area river flooding. Major flooding continues along the
Mississippi River from Chester south to Cape Girardeau and Thebes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with heavy rain will be
possible Thursday through the upcoming weekend. This could lead
to some localized flash flooding concerns.

Refer to river flood warnings and statements for the latest on
area river flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon or evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
411 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

ILZ078-052145-
Wabash IL-
411 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WABASH COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lancaster, or 9 miles north of Mount Carmel, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Carmel, Lancaster and Allendale.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3857 8765 3856 8765 3855 8767 3851 8765
      3850 8766 3851 8767 3848 8772 3848 8774
      3846 8776 3845 8775 3843 8781 3857 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 288DEG 18KT 3856 8781

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