Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1214 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Memorial Day)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

MCV moving toward southwest IN continues to generate convection
across the area this afternoon. So far just a few strong storms.
There may be an uptick in activity with some continued
destabilization. Feature over southwest MO will have to be
monitored as well. Will carry PoPs for convection into the early
evening hours. Mainly quiet conditions tonight through Monday as
s/wv ridging aloft moves toward and then across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Models continue in good agreement especially at the start of the
extended forecast. There are some perturbations in the flow this
weekend that could result in rain chances late in the weekend.

Models continue to show high pressure aloft and centered over the
gulf coast. This should inhibit convection as we start the extended
portion of the forecast. However by mid week or early Wednesday
morning a cold front will approach the area bringing a chance of
storms northwest of the Ohio River. The upper low currently over the
western US will slowly make its way across the plains and into the
region. This will be the catalyst to push a surface cold front
through the region Wednesday into Thursday as the upper high
flattens and retreats southward. This will result in a chance of
storms for the entire area as this comes to fruition. The main
threat will be for heavy rain especially over SEMO. The main threat
should be heavy rainfall...with PWATs near 1.5"...and lightning.
However CAPE values could approach 2k j/kg2 with LI's around a
negative 5 strong or severe can not be ruled out. There is some
speed shear but it is unidirectional and shear is relatively low at
this time. The upper high will build back north and dry us out for
the end of the week into the weekend. Even so an isolated diurnal
storm can not be ruled out. The front should bring high temperatures
down considerably Thursday with highs about 10 degrees cooler or
around 80. This will rapidly warm back up this weekend as the upper
ridge build back into the region. There is a hint of weak
perturbation in the flow aloft Moving through Saturday night that
could result in higher chances of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Scattered convection will continue this afternoon over southern
IL, southwest IN and west KY. New activity may form into southeast
MO. Generally VFR outside of convection with SW winds 10 to 20
kts. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions with showers and storms, accounted
for in the 18z Terminals. Tonight, VFR with light winds. Winds
will go southwest 5 to 15 kts Monday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
421 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
421 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible across the area today. A few strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly across southwest Indiana
and northwest Kentucky. The primary concerns with storms will be
large hail and damaging winds, along with brief heavy rainfall.

Detailed information on area river flooding can be found on the
latest river flood warnings and statements.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are possible across the region late Tuesday night
through Thursday. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

Detailed information on area river flooding can be found on the
latest updated river flood warnings and statements.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today, mainly in southwest
Indiana and northwest Kentucky.

RST

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