Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
320 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

We will be upgrading the Excessive Heat Watch to a Warning from
Thursday through Sunday. This is primarily for 4 consecutive days
of 105 heat indices over most of the region. A few locations may
reach the daily criteria of 110, but this is mainly a duration
play. Hopefully, we don't get some rogue convection over the
weekend to mess it up.

In the meantime, we are monitoring for convection late this
afternoon into tonight. An MCS over southeast Iowa is poised to
slide down the Mississippi River into this evening. Latest HREF
data indicates that it will die off before reaching our region. We
also have convection developing over the Ozarks to our west. This
is expected to push eastward and develop southward through the
remainder of the afternoon. It will likely impact portions of
southeast Missouri, and could push east of the Mississippi River
before dying off later this evening. Given CAPE of 2500-3500J/kg,
any storm could pulse up to severe levels, but with little shear,
storm organization is not expected through this evening, so any
severe storm should be brief and isolated. Locally heavy rainfall
will be the primary threat with all thunderstorms through this
evening.

HRRR data from earlier today brought a combination of the Missouri
convection and the MCS southeast through southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois into west Kentucky this evening. This is
plausible, despite the latest HREF data, so will keep decent
chance PoPs going roughly over the southwest half of the area
through the evening. The larger-scale models want to develop
convection over the northeast half of the area overnight into
Thursday morning, so will keep small chances there just to be
safe. Just don't want to get caught with all of this instability
and no PoPs.

The forecast is dry from Thursday afternoon through Friday
night, as the upper ridge dominates the region. Am somewhat
skeptical of temperatures climbing into the middle 90s with
dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s, but will go with the National
blend. Figure some locations will test the 110 heat index mark
over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Thursday afternoon,
but most of the area should get to at least 105. Figure Friday's
numbers will be a degree or so lower as the moisture begins to mix
out.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Through most of the weekend, an expansive, capping ridge over the
southern half of the CONUS will be in place, precluding most pcpn
for the PAH forecast area. Meanwhile, with surface dewpoints in the
middle 70s, and highs in the middle 90s (especially Sat), heat
indices of 105 to as much as 110 are likely through the weekend for
many locations.

However, there are a couple of variables that could make the Sun
forecast slightly less oppressive (at least in some areas). By the
latter half of the weekend, mid level height falls are progged to
have begun as the flow aloft across the CONUS begins a transition to
an amplified ridge-west/trof-east pattern. As a result, the surface
high temps on Sun may be a tad cooler (mainly east of the MS River)
as a frontal boundary approaches the PAH forecast area. Possible
isolated showers and tstms, plus increased cloud cover, may
contribute to somewhat lower heat indices (mainly east of the MS
River). On the hotter side of variance, there could be some pooling
of high dewpoint air Sun, just ahead of the (cold) frontal boundary.
All this will be considered when a decision is made as to what type
of heat headline to have for the latter part of the week.

Sometime early Mon, a surface wind shift to the northwest or north
is suggested by the initialization blend, with a true airmass change
not occurring until probably Mon night, as surface dewpoints drop
into the 60s. Though the blend hung on to some minor PoPs beyond Mon
night, it is believed that, in the new, cooler/drier airmass, shower
and tstm activity is not probable enough to mention in the forecast
for Day 6 night/Day 7 (Tue night/Wed). At this time, the medium
range models/ensemble means appear to be in good enough agreement
that a pleasant forecast of lows in the middle 60s/highs in the
lower to middle 80s seems realistic for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

The low clouds have scattered throughout the area, but an MVFR
ceiling could linger for an hour or so at KEVV or KOWB. KCGI and
KPAH will be most likely to be impacted by TSRA as a complex of
storms attempts to move southeast along the MS River and into west
Kentucky. KMVN may also be in the mix for a TSRA late this
afternoon or evening. There is some signal for convection to
impact KEVV and KOWB near sunrise Thursday, but confidence is too
low to mention at this time. Threw in some MVFR fog at KMVN late
tonight, but most places should keep enough wind to prevent fog
formation.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Thursday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Thursday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Thursday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning from noon Thursday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
401 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
401 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast through tonight. Storms will
be most likely over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and
west Kentucky. A few strong to severe storms with a damaging wind
threat will be possible through the evening, mainly across
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Locally heavy rainfall
will be the primary concern with all thunderstorms through
tonight.

Heat index values up to 110 will continue through sunset across
southeast Missouri. Readings will hover near 100 over the
remainder of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Thursday afternoon
through Sunday. Afternoon heat index values will top out over 105
degrees each day. Please refer to the Warning for details.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible east of the Mississippi River
on Sunday, but they should be most common across the region on
Monday with the passage of a cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DRS/DB

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