Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
134 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Updated aviation section for 18z taf issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Still another 36 hours to go with the mcs train that has brought
plenty of wind and rain to our region. The main concern for today
is the potential of another linear mcs / squall line. The day is
starting off surprisingly unstable given the widespread convection
Saturday. Mucapes were 2000 plus as of 08z, and 20 to 30 kt of low
level southwest flow is advecting even higher instability into
our region. A cluster of storms was occurring in southwest Indiana
and nw Kentucky at 08z. These storms will exit the region early
this morning.

Widespread convection over the Ozarks at 08z appears to be
associated with a weak mid-level impulse moving east-northeast.
The href mean 500 mb wind fields depict this impulse quite well.
A 500 mb jet streak around 40 kt is shown crossing southern IL
this afternoon. There is very strong model agreement that a round
of convection will occur today. The usual issues with any mcs are
when, where, and what convective mode.

Based on the high-res cam models, it appears the convective mode
will be another linear mcs. These models will seldom if ever
agree on the specific timing and placement of any given mcs, and
today is no exception. Based on the timing of the parent 500 mb
impulse, one would expect the mcs to reach se Missouri by late
this morning, then track east across wrn Kentucky and srn
Illinois/sw Indiana this afternoon. This would be during the time
of max heating and peak instability. Given the strong buoyancy,
shear profiles are forecast to be quite favorable for organized
updrafts. The nam indicates 30 to 40 kt through a deep layer (850
to 500 mb). The potential exists for a robust squall line across
the region.

Tonight and Monday, the primary upper level trough will swing
northeast across the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes region.
A 300 mb jet streak around 90 kt will lift northeast across the
mid/upper Mississippi Valley early Monday. The models indicate
another surge of rain and convection late tonight, associated with
the strong upper level forcing. Heavy rainfall with this round of
rain on top of moist ground could result in some flooding issues.
Surface instability may be tapped out by late tonight, suggesting
limited severe weather potential after 06z. However, low level
winds below 850 mb will crank up to around 40 knots. Precip will
diminish Monday and Monday night as the upper shortwave departs
our region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Heights will be on the rise Tuesday through Wednesday, but H5 flow
will still have a westerly component. Cannot rule out slight chances
of convection, mainly across southern sections of the region (west
KY into SEMO), where moisture is forecast to be higher. In fact,
there seems to be a transition in the models, suggesting less of a
ridge influence, and more of a weakness (Low) that wants to persist
from the lower MS Valley region northward. This signal suggests at
least daytime/afternoon small convective chances each day on into
the weekend. NBM 6 hour PoPs seem too low. Fairly significant
differences in the mid trop flow forecast this weekend. Like WPC,
favor more ensemble incorporation into the forecast that far out,
given greater uncertainty. Temperatures are forecast to be near
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Outside of tstm activity, a southerly to southwesterly low level
flow, generally sustained AOB 12 knots, will continue through the 24
hour TAF period. VFR conditions are forecast outside of shower and
tstm activity, with the possible exception of some MVFR cigs Mon
morning. Best guess is for lines of activity and other scattered
activity to be concentrated in the Pennyrile region of KY and
southeastern MO early this afternoon. As the afternoon goes on, it
appears the western storms will probably make it all the way across
mainly southern parts of the region, including southernmost IL and
western KY. Brief IFR conditions are likely with this activity,
mainly due to reductions in vsby. Gusty winds are also likely with
convection. Shower and tstm activity should wane significantly by
early evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
137 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-240945-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
137 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The potential exists for multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms to move east across our region through the
afternoon and early evning. The main hazards will be damaging winds
and large hail. Torrential rainfall is also likely, which could pose
some localized flash flooding. The tornado riask is low, but not
zero.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will decrease in coverage on Monday. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms from mid week on into the weekend.
Thunderstorms during the workweek are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today and tonight.

York/08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
114 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     TSTM WND GST     WINGO                   36.64N 88.74W
06/23/2019  E50 MPH          GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
123 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

INZ087-088-KYZ015>022-231915-
Warrick IN-Spencer IN-Muhlenberg KY-Henderson KY-Todd KY-Webster KY-
Christian KY-McLean KY-Hopkins KY-Daviess KY-
123 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WARRICK...SPENCER...
SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...WESTERN DAVIESS...MUHLENBERG...NORTHEASTERN
CHRISTIAN...MCLEAN...HOPKINS...NORTHERN TODD AND EASTERN WEBSTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 122 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dale to 7 miles northeast of Robards to
near Dixon to near Elkton. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Dime to Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with the strongest storms.

Locations impacted include...
Owensboro, Madisonville, Boonville, Central City, Rockport, Elkton,
Calhoun, Greenville, Sebree, Dale, Earlington, Livermore,
Nortonville, Mortons Gap, Grandview, Powderly, Graham, Santa Claus,
St. Joseph and Stanley.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central and northwestern Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3793 8698 3768 8714 3757 8704 3748 8713
      3738 8710 3734 8714 3737 8707 3735 8701
      3727 8698 3723 8691 3714 8693 3711 8689
      3706 8705 3680 8706 3677 8717 3743 8776
      3823 8710 3820 8707 3821 8679 3812 8679
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 243DEG 25KT 3823 8706 3776 8747 3746 8769 3687
8715

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
148 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     HAIL             MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
06/23/2019  M0.88 INCH       CALLOWAY           KY   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
202 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REED                    37.86N 87.36W
06/23/2019                   HENDERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER IS OUT.

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND GST     HUNTER                  36.89N 90.84W
06/23/2019  M55 MPH          CARTER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 WNW KIRKSEY           36.70N 88.48W
06/23/2019                   CALLOWAY           KY   PUBLIC

&&

DLL