Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
345 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Will need to be a bit brief due to ongoing severe weather.

Two lines of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms will
affect the area late this afternoon into the early evening.
Extremely unstable conditions continue ahead of the complexes, and
they may in fact merge with time. Effective bulk shear near 40 kts
should help sustain the organized convection.

Thereafter, we expect another round of storms to develop later
tonight into Saturday morning along a frontal boundary stretching
from southern IL into northern KY. Though the severe potential may
be more limited with these storms, it will not be zero, and
torrential rainfall with PWATS over 1.75" could lead to flash
flooding of saturated soils from early evening storms. Thus, have
decided to initiate a flash flood watch for tonight through 15Z
Sat for location along and n/e of the sfc boundary. This generally
includes locations east of a line running from Mt Vernon, IL to
Hopkinsville, KY.

Hoping to get a bit of a break in the precip for some of the day
Saturday as H50 ridge tries to shift east toward the the region.
However, the surface boundary will likely still be hanging around,
and could focus yet another round of storms, some possible severe
during peak heating of the day and early evening. In fact, Sunday
looks unsettled as well, with a decent chance of at least some
scattered afternoon/evening convection. Becoming tough to catch a
break in this type of stagnant weather pattern.

It should also worth noting that very humid conditions over the
weekend will lead to heat indices popping up to near 100 degrees
where the sun comes out for a few hours during the late morning
and afternoon in between rounds of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Models are coming in better agreement next week after Monday anyway.
They usually do improve as the weather calms down.

Monday however should remain active with an upper level trough
moving out of the plains into our area. It will also have a surface
reflection of a cold front. This should give us fairly high
confidence in thunderstorms and rain. CAPE's should be around 1k
j/kg2 with LI's around -4...so a strong storm could be possible.
This would especially be true near the front. The only difference
here is the GFS is a little faster at moving this system out which
is not unusual. So as the blend produced a comprise between the
timing issues among the models and it seems logical to us. Monday
the clouds and rain should hold temperatures down in the low to mid
80s range.

Tuesday should be drier but temperatures start to warm back to the
mid and upper 80s. However dew points will fall from 70 into the
middle 60s so it should be a little more tolerable. An upper ridge
over the southwest will build into the region with a surface high
tries to build in from the Gulf. There will also be a weak surface
high in the fronts wake to assist at inhibiting storm development.
This should keep any chance of rain to a minimum as we head through
the rest of the week. However temperatures will warm up to around
90. With this in mind we cant say there couldn't be pop up summer
time thunderstorm but the chances are too low to include at this
time. Friday the flow will turn easterly at the surface and could
result in a little cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

There will be a line of tsra move through mvn...evv and owb this
afternoon. We could easily see gusts of 30 to 40 mph with some
storms. Heavy rain as well. This will pass and be followed by some
rain but mostly VFR conditions. There will also be some llws this
evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ILZ076>078-083.

MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ014>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...KH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
354 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
354 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms. A line of
thunderstorms will move southeast across our region this
afternoon into early this evening. The primary hazard appears to
be scattered damaging wind gusts. A few storms could also produce
large hail and flooding rainfall.

More storms are possible during the overnight hours, accompanied
by locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds. This second round of
heavy rainfall could result in increased flooding potential. Most
of the storms overnight are forecast to occur east of the
Mississippi River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat indices are forecast to reach 100 degrees in parts of our
region Saturday, mainly in southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. The
primary hazards will be heavy rain and lightning, but a few
strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested today or tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
345 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

ILZ083-087-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ014-018-212130-
White IL-Gallatin IL-Posey IN-Warrick IN-Vanderburgh IN-Gibson IN-
Spencer IN-Pike IN-Henderson KY-Union KY-
345 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHITE...NORTHEASTERN
GALLATIN...WARRICK...NORTHWESTERN SPENCER...GIBSON...VANDERBURGH...
POSEY...PIKE...HENDERSON AND NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near St. Francisville to near Cynthiana to 9
miles east of Norris City. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Henderson, Princeton, Mount Vernon, Boonville, Newburgh,
Chandler, Fort Branch, Oakland City, Petersburg, Melody Hill, Dale,
Haubstadt, Darmstadt, Owensville, Lynnville, Winslow, Patoka,
Cynthiana and Folsomville.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
southern and southeastern Illinois...and southwestern Indiana. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT
for southwestern Indiana...and northwestern Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3851 8707 3821 8707 3820 8695 3799 8701
      3788 8727 3790 8730 3786 8731 3772 8763
      3791 8832 3815 8777 3843 8769 3845 8760
      3852 8754 3849 8750 3853 8746 3854 8738
      3851 8737 3854 8735 3851 8729 3855 8720
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 284DEG 34KT 3854 8757 3813 8769 3793 8816

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
418 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 WNW BURFORDVILLE      37.40N 89.92W
06/21/2019                   BOLLINGER          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. 2 TREES DOWN IN
            SCOPUS.

&&

ATL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
426 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PATTON                  37.50N 90.01W
06/21/2019                   BOLLINGER          MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWERLINES DOWN. BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED.

&&

ATL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
436 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW CAPE GIRARDEAU    37.30N 89.57W
06/21/2019                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   PUBLIC

            60MPH WIND GUST, BROKEN TREELIMBS AND ROOF
            SHINGLE DAMAGE.

&&

ATL

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