River Flood Warning 99, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
347 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Southwesterly flow aloft, combined with a deep moist low level
flow, will continue to enable shower and tstm development this
afternoon, and again overnight. A perturbation in the flow aloft
will tend to support a line of deep moist convection moving
eastward through southeastern MO. This line is forecast to hold
together and move all the way across western KY and southernmost
IL this afternoon and early evening. This is where the best
instability currently is. Some severe weather is possible with
the line into the early evening. Scattered showers and tstms may
still develop ahead of the line.

The PAH forecast area will be between disturbances aloft for the
rest of the evening while the lower troposphere stabilizes. This
will be conducive to a lull in the pcpn. However, there may be a
return of activity after midnight with the arrival of another
shortwave/disturbance aloft, lingering into the daylight hours
Mon. The intensity of storms should stay below severe levels for
most of the region as coverage gradually lessens from the west.
However, there is a small possibility of severe weather occurrence
in the far eastern tier of counties in the afternoon.

Starting Mon night, we will be under drier surface high pressure
conditions, and quasi-zonal flow aloft. Other than a small chance
of measurable rainfall near the AR/TN state lines due to a
southern stream disturbance, a welcome dry period is forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

In general, high pressure at the surface will combine rising
mid/upper level heights to provide a primarily rain-free period and
seasonably warm/humid air across the region. Only caveat is the
possibility of a weak mid-level low pressure system getting cut off
underneath the main westerlies up to the north. This could offer a
bit higher chance of seeing some mainly diurnally driven convection
during the latter half of the week. For now through, will play
things mainly rain-free for most of the long term, with average POPs
at or below 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Outside of tstm activity, a southerly to southwesterly low level
flow, generally sustained AOB 12 knots, will continue through the 24
hour TAF period. VFR conditions are forecast outside of shower and
tstm activity, with the possible exception of some MVFR cigs Mon
morning. Best guess is for lines of activity and other scattered
activity to be concentrated in the Pennyrile region of KY and
southeastern MO early this afternoon. As the afternoon goes on, it
appears the western storms will probably make it all the way across
mainly southern parts of the region, including southernmost IL and
western KY. Brief IFR conditions are likely with this activity,
mainly due to reductions in vsby. Gusty winds are also likely with
convection. Shower and tstm activity should wane significantly by
early evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
137 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-240945-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
137 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The potential exists for multiple rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms to move east across our region through the
afternoon and early evning. The main hazards will be damaging winds
and large hail. Torrential rainfall is also likely, which could pose
some localized flash flooding. The tornado riask is low, but not
zero.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will decrease in coverage on Monday. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms from mid week on into the weekend.
Thunderstorms during the workweek are not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested today and tonight.

York/08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     LIGHTNING        MURRAY                  36.61N 88.32W
06/23/2019                   CALLOWAY           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSON STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AT MURRAY STATE UNIVERSITY
            CAMPUS. ENROUTE TO HOSPITAL.

&&

CHRISTIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
558 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SMITHLAND               37.14N 88.40W
06/23/2019                   LIVINGSTON         KY   PUBLIC

            CHURCH IN TOWN HAS MAJOR ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

CHRISTIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
611 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PROVIDENCE              37.40N 87.75W
06/23/2019                   WEBSTER            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN PROVIDENCE IN THE TOWER DRIVE -
            BAPTIST HILL AREA.

&&

CHRISTIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE PADUCAH            37.04N 88.60W
06/23/2019                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RESTAURANT SIGNS BLOWN DOWN AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF
            STOREFRONT ON SOUTHSIDE OF PADUCAH.

&&

CHRISTIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   37.27N 88.24W
06/23/2019                   LIVINGSTON         KY   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWN AND LARGE TREES UPROOTED IN AND NEAR
            SALEM. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF BUSINESS DOWNTOWN SALEM.

&&

CHRISTIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HICKORY                 36.82N 88.65W
06/23/2019                   GRAVES             KY   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREE LARGE LIMBS AND TREES DOWN IN HICKORY AND
            VIOLA.

&&

CHRISTIW