Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Atmosphere is very unstable this afternoon. A weak mid level
wave/mcv to our west will continue toward the area through the end
of the day, possibly enhancing convection. We also see evidence of a
boundary from near KEVV back to the west into southern IL from
earlier morning convection. Strong to isolated severe storms and
heavy rainfall possible as a result. Tonight through Monday,
conditions should remain unsettled with a H7/H5 open wave forecast
to move toward the area. PoPs overall have been overdone by a
considerable amount. We will play middle of the road with Pops and
use scattered terminology given the uncertainty regarding clouds
and mesoscale influences. Chances should be higher Monday with the
approach of the mid level feature. Otherwise rather warm and
humid through Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The extended forecast period begins with filling of a southwest MO
low/middle level low pressure center and translation of the trough
axis through the WFO PAH forecast area from west to east. The
movement of this system, combined with weak ridging should diminish
PoPs significantly Tuesday and Tuesday night. Selected model
guidance has hinted at a diminution of PoPs on Tuesday, but elements
of blended and ensemble guidance have masked this subtle change.
Plan to heighten the lowered PoP chances for Tuesday.

Likewise, nearly all of the medium range guidance continues to
maintain higher rain chances for Wednesday into Thursday, associated
with a broader scale, lee side of the Rockies, generated trough.
This may generate scattered to numerous coverage of convective
activity Wednesday night as the gradient of maximum lift, vorticity,
and surface convergence comes into play.

Beyond Thursday and through at least early Saturday, a more
meridional pattern develops. More dominant ridging should serve to
suppress thunderstorm chances on Friday and Friday night. With the
transition from a zonal to meridional pattern, anticipate some
timing difference on rain chances into next weekend. At this point,
plan to go with a slower eastward transport (probably closer to the
mean 700 mb hemispheric wave speed of 15 knots) of the ridge,
leading to a drier Saturday and Sunday. Lowered PoPs during this
time period, within collaborative limits with neighboring offices.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Terminal forecasts will be kept simple. Other than VC mention
within the first 6 hours, will keep convection out of the TAFs
given very low confidence in timing and evolution through Monday.
MVFR cigs across the area were more prominent than expected. We
expect improvement into the afternoon to VFR conditions. We may
see lower cigs reappear late tonight into Monday morning given
similar conditions are forecast to exist. SSW winds 10 to 20 kts
and gusty will become light SSW tonight through Monday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
828 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-171000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
828 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are likely today through tonight. There is a
risk for a few severe thunderstorms, capable of hail and strong
winds. Heavy rain may cause localized minor flooding as well.

Refer to the latest river flood warnings and statements for updated
river flooding details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected on and off through much of the week.
Locally heavy rain is the primary hazard and may lead to localized
flooding. Each afternoon or evening, a strong storm is possible,
but perhaps Monday and Wednesday offer the best such chance.

Refer to the latest river flood warnings and statements for updated
river flooding details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should monitor the latest forecasts and updates for
potential activation requests.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
129 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

INZ087-161900-
Warrick IN-
129 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WARRICK COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM CDT...

At 129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lynnville, or 7 miles north of Chandler, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lynnville and Folsomville.

LAT...LON 3807 8740 3818 8743 3823 8720 3823 8716
      3807 8712
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 257DEG 25KT 3814 8733

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
247 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

MOZ107-108-162030-
Carter MO-Ripley MO-
247 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CARTER AND NORTHERN
RIPLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hunter, or 11 miles south of Van Buren, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Budapest, Hunter and Grandin.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Missouri.

This storm could become severe. Continue to monitor for additional
statements and possible warnings.

LAT...LON 3674 9102 3691 9108 3703 9083 3676 9070
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 249DEG 16KT 3684 9096

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             HUNTER                  36.89N 90.84W
06/16/2019  E0.70 INCH       CARTER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             2 S HUNTER              36.86N 90.85W
06/16/2019  E1.00 INCH       CARTER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

DWS