Wind Advisory 20, NWS Norman, OK

Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Archer County, TX, Clay County, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1132 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate north/northeast winds will become light east
tonight before shifting back around to the south late tonight.
Winds will increase dramatically by late morning with sustained
above 20kts with gusts above 30kts. These will likely continue to
increase into the afternoon hours on Tuesday just beyond this
forecast period. As the surface boundary just south of the I-44
corridor at midday lifts back north tonight, expect a period of
MVFR ceilings to develop to the north of the boundary. This will
likely impact both PNC/WWR between 08Z-14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019/

AVIATION...
TAFs 2512/2612...
A weak front will move across northern and central Oklahoma today
before stalling across southern Oklahoma this afternoon. A light
north wind is expected behind the front. The front will lift
northward tonight as a strong storm system approaches the southern
Plains. VFR conditions are expected through the period with
increasing high clouds this afternoon and night. Low level wind
shear is possible near SPS/LAW by 12Z Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019/

DISCUSSION...

The main stories continue to be the high winds and potential fire
conditions on Tuesday, as well as the precipitation chances
Wednesday evening into the Thanksgiving weekend. For today, calm
conditions are expected to persist. A weak upper level shortwave
will move through which will see a minor surface boundary and wind
shift to the north in response. Temperatures should remain slightly
above normal.

For Tuesday, the upper level cyclone that will be moving through
northern Kansas will result in a surface wind enhancement and wind
shift out of the west. These downsloping winds in western Oklahoma
and western north Texas could reach sustained speeds up to 40mph and
gusts up to 55mph. These winds coupled with the low relative
humidities (between 15-25% in areas) would result in conditions
favorable for fire weather, with widespread critical fire conditions
for Tuesday throughout western Oklahoma and western north Texas. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for these conditions.

The cold front is expected to move through the area late Tuesday,
however the dry airmass in place will result in no precipitation
during the frontal passage. The moisture arrival has trended later
with recent model runs, however precipitation chances increase in
earnest starting Wednesday night. Models are starting to get closer
to agreement on the duration, with the precipitation expected to
exit the area Friday night/Early Saturday morning. The models have
also been trending towards warmer temperature profiles with the
moisture arrival, giving a narrower window for any potential winter
precipitation. This is further supported by the latest 00Z NAM run
which we are now in range of. Having said that, with the temperature
profiles being so close to the transition points between precip
types, there is still a chance that western and northwestern parts
of Oklahoma may see snow and, to a lesser extent, some freezing
rain.

Zwink

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  41  69  32 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         63  39  67  29 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  65  45  74  34 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           62  32  61  23 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     62  40  66  30 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         68  47  74  38 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038.

     High Wind Watch Tuesday afternoon for OKZ004-009-010-014-021-033-
     034.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

30/14/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
713 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261315-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
713 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Fire Weather...
Critical fire conditions are expected Tuesday for western
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Relative humidity values
will range from 15 to 25 percent with wind gusts up to 55 mph.

.Winter Weather...
Northwest Oklahoma could see a light wintry mix overnight
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance of thunderstorms across the area on Friday.
A few strong to severe storms are possible, especially during the
afternoon and evening.

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