Tornado Warning 97, NWS Norman, OK

182 
WWUS54 KOUN 290009
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
709 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

OKC049-051-087-290030-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-190529T0030Z/
Garvin OK-Grady OK-McClain OK-
709 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN GARVIN...SOUTHEASTERN GRADY AND SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN
COUNTIES...
    
At 709 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Bradley, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lindsay, Alex, Bradley, Criner, Erin Springs and Payne. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you
are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3477 9775 3488 9781 3505 9753 3486 9737
      3477 9774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 248DEG 23KT 3485 9771 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

BRB

481 
WWUS54 KOUN 290023
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
723 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

OKC049-051-290032-
/O.CAN.KOUN.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-190529T0030Z/
Garvin OK-Grady OK-
723 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GARVIN AND SOUTHEASTERN GRADY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area.Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3486 9763 3494 9767 3495 9767 3505 9753
      3491 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 235DEG 30KT 3495 9758 

$$

OKC087-290030-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-190529T0030Z/
McClain OK-
723 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY...
    
At 722 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Criner, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Criner and Payne. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you
are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3486 9763 3494 9767 3495 9767 3505 9753
      3491 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 235DEG 30KT 3495 9758 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

BRB

462 
WWUS54 KOUN 290028
SVSOUN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
728 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

OKC087-290038-
/O.EXP.KOUN.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-190529T0030Z/
McClain OK-
728 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
730 PM CDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

LAT...LON 3486 9763 3494 9767 3495 9767 3505 9753
      3491 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 241DEG 25KT 3497 9754 

$$

BRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
630 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.AVIATION...
00z TAFs...Mostly VFR conditions expected this evening outside of
thunderstorm activity currently across southwest into central
Oklahoma. These storms should persist for the next few hours with
impacts most likely to KOKC and KOUN, although current trends
suggest these sites may not see direct impacts from the strongest
activity. More storms are expected towards tomorrow morning and
into the afternoon with possible MVFR conditions as well with
lower ceilings expected.

Ware
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The focus is primarily on near-term convective severe, and most of
the analysis below will be focused on that.

Early this afternoon, 6.19 water vapor clearly shows the closed mid-
upper low centered near Denver, and a moisture gradient coincident
with trough's leading edge PVA extending from the Kansas/Colorado
border southward into central New Mexico. This signals increasing
ascent today in our area, and the 12z/17z/19z OUN observed
sounding overlay shows this and depicts gradual lifting of capping
inversion. We'll launch a 21z sounding also to continue to assess
BL evolution as well as cap strength. Stratus has gradually
increased and has tempered diabatic heating some near and east of
the I-35 corridor. Further west, stronger heating has contributed
to moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE to 3,000 J/kg,
possibly a little higher. 18z sounding at Lamont shows weak cap at
700-mb that should be lifted out shortly as ascent from
approaching shortwave arrives. An impressive 1,200 J of hail
growth zone CAPE alone is concerning. Supercells will be capable
of very large hail in this environment. 0-1-km shear of 18 knots
and LCL heights of around 775m were observed in this sounding as
well.

Convective initiation is probable in western Oklahoma and at
least isolated storms should evolve into supercells given
magnitude deep layer shear. Large hail will be the primary threat,
and damaging winds as well. Low-level shear is sufficient for a
tornado or two, but the best chance of this would be toward
evening when a modest strengthening/veering of low-level jet
occurs. Further south, temperatures are near 90 so this degree of
heating may result in CI despite stronger forcing being north.
Higher LCLs should limit the tornado concern somewhat relative to
further north. The storms could produce very large hail.

There could be some upscale growth later this evening, but the
degree of this is uncertain. As low level jet veers and Corfidi
vectors become more favorable, a corridor of heavy rainfall
amounts can't be ruled out. For now, given spatial uncertainties
have decided not to issue a Flood Watch, but we'll continue to
monitor convective trends. Keep in mind that much of north-central
Oklahoma is still experiencing areal flooding and flooding of
mainstem creeks and rivers. Soils are very saturated. It won't
take much to have flooding/flash flooding in these areas if
convection is able to develop and move over this area.

Water vapor shows two more shortwave troughs upstream nearly in
phase, near the Four Corners region and over southern California.
Ascent from these will influence convective development tomorrow
morning from West Texas northeastward across our Texas counties
and southwest Oklahoma. This should expand northeastward
throughout the day, up to a southward advancing front. Position of
driving features along with a consensus of model QPF suggests the
heaviest rainfall amounts could be sufficient for flooding/flash
flooding across southeast portions of the area, even without
antecedent conditions being critical.

Little/no change for the rest of the forecast period. A trend in
the synoptic pattern toward mean ridging won't preclude
thunderstorm activity, but may place us in a slightly less active
pattern. Remnant MCS are still possible. Deterministic and
ensemble run total QPF out to 7 days suggests not overly
concerning amounts to add to the ongoing flooding situation, but
something we'll have to watch closely.

Flood Watch tomorrow will be out shortly.

BRB/Bunker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  74  56  78 /  40  80  40   0
Hobart OK         61  73  54  78 /  20  70  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  76  59  81 /  20  90  40   0
Gage OK           53  70  48  76 /  10  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     63  73  54  76 /  50  40  40   0
Durant OK         71  81  63  82 /  20 100  90   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
     OKZ031-032-041>043-046>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

03/25/08

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
855 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291400-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
855 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening.

Location...
The Enhanced Risk is across portions of central and northeast
Oklahoma, including Ponca City, Stillwater, and the Oklahoma
City area. The Slight Risk covers most of the rest of Oklahoma
and western north Texas, with the exception of far western
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas.

Timing...
3 PM this afternoon through midnight.

Impacts...
Hail up to baseball size.
Winds of 60 to 80 mph.
Low tornado risk.

Discussion...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, just west of Highway 81. Thunderstorm coverage may be
isolated. If storms develop, supercells are expected. These storms
will move northeastward through the evening hours.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk area should prepare for severe weather operations this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe storms across far
southeastern Oklahoma with a Slight Risk across western north
Texas and the remaining southeastern half of Oklahoma on
Wednesday.

Thereafter, there are off an on chances of thunderstorms this
weekend into early next week, but predictability in location and
strength of storms is too low for any organized severe storm risk
areas.

.Heavy Rain and Flooding...
Flooding problems will continue or return in areas that see
thunderstorms. Persons who live near or have interests in low
lying areas should pay close attention to forecasts and warnings.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
624 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

TXZ088-290000-
Baylor TX-
624 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Baylor County Until 700
PM CDT...

AT 622 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Seymour, moving northeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Seymour, Red Springs, Lake Kemp, Mabelle and Bomarton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 9942 3355 9947 3357 9947 3383 9917
      3383 9914 3360 9895 3358 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 227DEG 23KT 3355 9934

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             GUTHRIE                 35.88N 97.42W
05/28/2019  E0.25 INCH       LOGAN              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             2 NNW LAWTON            34.62N 98.44W
05/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SE 38TH AND CACHE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
636 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             3 NW PIEDMONT           35.68N 97.78W
05/28/2019  E2.50 INCH       CANADIAN           OK   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT WITH PICTURE.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             4 S RUSH SPRINGS        34.72N 97.96W
05/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       GRADY              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             GUTHRIE                 35.88N 97.42W
05/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JT