Tornado Warning 104, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
851 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Decreased the chance of showers and thunderstorms until late
tonight/early Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have not been too organized across Oklahoma today.
Many thunderstorms have been more the "pulse" variety. Effective
bulk shear and instability/MLCAPE have been weaker than forecast,
which may explain the tempered convection.

With respect to instability, the mid-level lapse rates on the 00Z
KOUN sounding were weaker than recent days. These lapse rates may
been modulated by the remnant MCV that moved in from north Texas
earlier today. There was some convective inhibition on the 00Z
sounding as well.

There is still a reasonable chance that storms across eastern
Colorado may organized into an MCS that could affect northern
Oklahoma with a primary threat for damaging wind gusts. The
boundary/remnants from this convection may serve as a focal point
for convection tomorrow.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
A convectively-induced mid/upper-level disturbance over southeast
Oklahoma will continue to affect TSRA development across Oklahoma and
north Texas, enhancing it over eastern Oklahoma, and limiting it
over central Oklahoma this evening. Meanwhile, a surface front over
northwest Oklahoma will be a focus for TSRA development through the
period. The front will begin to move southeast as a cold front
overnight, and should be nearing I-44 around the prime TSRA
development time tomorrow (about 20-22Z). Expect low (low MVFR level)
clouds near the front and also across the area near/east of KSPS-
KPNC late tonight and Sunday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Convection is increasing slowly across our southeast counties,
and is yet to develop in the northwest as of midafternoon. The
southeastern showers and storms are associated with an MCV that
is moving slowly north-northeast from the Dallas/Fort Worth area.
In the northwest, storms are expected to develop near and
southeast of a nearly stationary front.

Instability is quite strong, so wherever surface-based storms can
develop, they will be able to intensify quickly. Vertical wind
shear varies across the region. It should be easily sufficient
for severe storms over the northwest half of our forecast area,
given the amount of instability, but will be less supportive in
the southeast. Locally-enhanced shear in the circulation of the
MCV may be an exception.

The northwest convection is expected to merge into an MCS
overnight, mainly affecting the northern half of Oklahoma, but
scattered storms are likely to form outside this system on
various outflow boundaries that should be in place by tonight.

Sunday looks like a near-repeat, although with the front probably
close to I-44 by the time of primary convective development.
Therefore, the highest probability of storms Sunday afternoon and
evening is across the southeast half of our forecast area.

Since heavy rain is expected with many of the storms, and since
some training appears likely, especially this
afternoon/evening/overnight, we have retained the existing Flood
Watch...and expanded it to the southeast. From roughly I-44 and
east, the watch will go through 12Z (7 am CDT) on Monday, while
the rest of the watch is currently set to expire 24 hours earlier.

After Sunday's storms, upper-level ridging sets in. This will
result in much lower chances of showers and thunderstorms through
the rest of the week.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  88  62  84 /  30  70  50  10
Hobart OK         71  92  62  87 /  20  40  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  92  67  87 /  20  60  50  20
Gage OK           63  83  54  85 /  50  20  20   0
Ponca City OK     69  85  62  83 /  60  60  40  10
Durant OK         75  87  69  85 /  20  50  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ019-020-023>032-
     038>048-050>052.

     Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ005>008-011>013-017-018.

TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ090.

&&

26/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
933 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-240245-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
933 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Late tonight, thunderstorms could move into the area from the
area from the west. If this occurs, strong to potentially damaging
winds would be possible, especially across northern, western, and
possibly central Oklahoma.

.Heavy Rain and Flooding...
Heavy rain will be a concern with the showers and thunderstorms
that occur through the night. Flash flooding and river flooding
could be possible in some areas.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the area should prepare for severe weather operations during the
overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Sunday
morning. Heavy rain will be the primary concern early Sunday.

Severe storms will be likely again Sunday afternoon and evening
with an Enhanced Risk across western north Texas and all but
northwest parts of Oklahoma. There is uncertainty Sunday due to
the effects of storms Saturday night. However, severe storms are
likely with very large hail and damaging winds.

.Heavy Rain and Flooding...
Heavy rain Sunday could lead to flash flooding and river
flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
116 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

OKZ014-021-230645-
Roger Mills OK-Beckham OK-
116 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southern Roger Mills and
northwestern Beckham Counties Until 145 AM CDT...

AT 114 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Reydon, moving northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Storm intensity is increasing and severe weather may develop rapidly.
Stay alert and listen for warnings.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 10000 3584 9965 3572 9938 3569 9938
      3527 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 232DEG 36KT 3557 9993

WR