Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
414 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Increased cloud cover today will help keep temperatures down, but
there will be two regimes keeping conditions uncomfortable for
most. West of stationary front, which will extend from northwest
Oklahoma to just west of the OKC metro to south-central Oklahoma,
will be the hotter temperatures but less humidity, while near and
east of the front, pooling of lower level moisture will lead to
high humidity levels. The mentioned cloud cover should keep
heat indices below advisory levels, which have been marginal at
best the past few days. Cooler temperatures, actually below average
most locations, will spread over the region over the weekend and
last into the early part of next week before a sharp warming
trend.

Of bigger concern is the chances for thunderstorms next couple of
days and again next week. Strongest and most widespread convection
for the first half of today expected to be north and east of our
forecast area, near and downstream of modest low level jet and
850-750mb theta-e advection. As this jet weakens and diurnally
backs post sunrise, convection expected to weaken and shift
farther east. We will keep chances going through much of the
morning across central and southeast Oklahoma as residual/weak
lift above the cap could keep scattered showers and perhaps a weak
storm going.

S/wv trough progressing through central Rockies early this morning
forecast to progress around four-corners ridge, helping to induce
cyclogenesis/frontogenesis through the day across southwest
Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is
anticipated near and east of this surface low late this afternoon,
with convection growing upscale across north-central into central
Oklahoma tonight. Sufficient deep layer shear, aided by southerly
low level flow and northern mid-upper level flow, expected to a
few supercells late today into this evening. Before upscale
growth, we would expect large hail and damaging wind to be an
isolated concern.

Convection expected to progress southward early Saturday with
chances for storms continuing mainly across eastern and southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas into Sunday. Could see impacts next
week from MCS activity on downstream side of upper ridge as active
northwest flow progresses across the central plains into the
middle Mississippi Valley region. Little in the way of changes
were made in the latter periods as models diverge in forecast of
amplitude/position of upper ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  74  87  70 /  40  60  40  30
Hobart OK        100  76  94  70 /  10  30  10  20
Wichita Falls TX 100  77  97  72 /  10  20  20  30
Gage OK           98  69  88  64 /  10  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     87  71  82  67 /  70  70  60  20
Durant OK         91  74  86  71 /  30  40  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
519 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
519 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon into tonight across the central corridor of Oklahoma
from the Kansas border down into western north Texas. This
includes the cities of Enid, Ponca City, Stillwater, the Oklahoma
City Metro, Ardmore, Lawton, and Wichita Falls. Wind gusts of 60
to 70 mph and hail up to golfball size will be possible with the
strongest storms.

.Heat...
Another hot afternoon is expected across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas, with heat indices topping out around 105.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel in and
near the Marginal Risk area should prepare for severe weather
operations late this afternoon into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms will be seen across
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas on Saturday. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the concerns. Storms may linger
near the Red River Valley of southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas into Sunday.

Storm chances return to northern Oklahoma Tuesday night.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
443 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

OKZ008-021015-
Kay OK-
443 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Kay County Until 515
AM CDT...

AT 439 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Arkansas City, moving southeast at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

Locations impacted include...
Hardy and northeastern Kaw Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3678 9675 3678 9678 3700 9704 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0939Z 297DEG 10KT 3709 9696

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
521 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

OKZ008-021045-
Kay OK-
521 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Kay County Until 545
AM CDT...

AT 516 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hardy, moving
southeast at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

Locations impacted include...
Kaw City, Hardy and northeastern Kaw Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9675 3678 9676 3678 9679 3677 9679
      3677 9682 3675 9682 3675 9683 3696 9700
      3700 9695 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 316DEG 11KT 3698 9686

11