Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
621 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019

...Update...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Previous forecast remains on track. Water vapor channel clearly
shows closed low centered just southwest of Ardmore, along or just
barely south of the Red River. Over the last few hours, IR showed
some enhancement indicating weak convective elements within
diffluent flow regime across roughly the southwest quadrant of
Oklahoma. The tendency through the evening may be toward an
increase in mesoscale banding, although a more classic
consolidated heavy snow band associated with strong frontogenesis
doesn't appear to happen in this particular setup. A couple of
small bands have formed over south-central Oklahoma from near
Ardmore to just north of Waurika, and across southern Grady and
Caddo counties. An increase in Kdp values within the dendritic
growth zone has been observed with these bands which suggests
snowfall rates may be increasing.

Further north near the I-40 corridor, a more coherent area of
light to moderate snow has formed and even within this area
visibilities at ASOS/AWOS sensors have briefly dropped to 1/2
mile. An additional 1-2 inches with possibly locally 3-4 inches
seems probable where 1) banding occurs and 2) temperatures are
supportive, but several areas are just above freezing and this may
limit accumulation despite decent rates. Thermal profiles suggest
a trend back toward rain/freezing rain at least mixing in late
this evening or early tonight as the cold core moves east away
from the area and temperatures around 925-mb warm to above
freezing.

Across northern Oklahoma where temperatures have been near or
just above freezing, rain/freezing rain is the dominant precip
type with perhaps some sleet. This is due to relatively warmer
temperatures in the 900-750-mb layer, relative to further south
closer to the deep closed low.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 514 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF discussion.

AVIATION...
Upper low will continue to shift slowly east along the Red river
this evening with a wintry mix impacting most sites through the
04-06Z timeframe. This will create and keep all sites with
MVFR/IFR conditions through this evening. Should see some
improvements in sfc conditions after with a continuation of IFR
ceilings through 14/15Z Friday. Skies expected to clear from west
to east with VFR at all sites by 15Z

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The upper-level low that has brought various kinds of winter
weather to Oklahoma and north Texas was centered near Waurika at
3:30 pm. Isentropic lift ahead and north of the system was
producing areas of rain and freezing rain, occasionally mixed with
sleet and snow, with the heaviest precipitation indicated from
north of Holdenville northwest toward Enid. With temperatures near
freezing, ice accumulation will not be as efficient as it would be
with slightly cooler temperatures, but there are still reports of
tree branches falling from the weight of the ice. Farther
west/southwest, the temperature profile supports snow. Continuing
snowfall into the evening is expected near the Red River. The
winter weather warnings and advisories have been adjusted to
account for current expectations. In between these areas, a dry
slow has brought precipitation to a temporary end from near Durant
to the Oklahoma City area. This area should fill in later this
evening as the drier air gets squeezed between the two areas of
lift.

After the storm exits the region tomorrow morning, we expect the
areas with significant coverage of snow and ice to warm much more
slowly than surrounding areas, despite substantially warmer air
aloft.

Under clear skies with light winds, snow-covered areas are
likely to experience areas of fog tomorrow night, and another
not-quite-as-warm-as-the-neighbors day on Saturday. Since mid/
upper-level heights rise substantially after today, the warmup
will be relatively quick, so effects of snow and ice should be
minimal by Sunday.

Another system is forecast to move through the region on Monday,
which may bring a few showers, but temperatures are expected to
be above freezing with this precipitation area. A rather mild week
will follow, with minimal chances for rain until the end of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  33  27  42  29 /  90  90   0   0
Hobart OK         33  25  49  26 / 100  70   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  33  29  48  29 /  90  60   0   0
Gage OK           34  25  54  28 /  60  40   0   0
Ponca City OK     35  26  49  27 /  80  50   0   0
Durant OK         38  33  54  33 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for OKZ005>008-
     010>013-019-020-025-026-028>032-040>043-046.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for OKZ009-014>018-
     021>024-027-033>039-044-045.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

12/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1211 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041815-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1211 PM CST Thu Jan 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight...

.Winter Weather...
A winter storm is moving across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.
Snow, sleet, rain, and freezing rain will be possible, but snow
and rain will be the main precipitation types. Portions of
western, central and southern Oklahoma may receive a total of 4
to 6 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Lighter amounts
are expected across far northern and southeast Oklahoma. Little
additional accumulation of ice from freezing rain is expected. The
precipitation will end from west to east later today and most of
the precipitation will end by sunrise Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 PM CST THU JAN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     SNOW             3 NW WARR ACRES         35.56N 97.66W
01/03/2019  M1.2 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED ON A SNOW BOARD NEAR NORTHWEST EXPRESSWAY AND
            COUNCIL.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
755 PM CST THU JAN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     SNOW             CRESCENT                35.95N 97.59W
01/03/2019  M5.0 INCH        LOGAN              OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
807 PM CST THU JAN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     SNOW             1 E TINKER AIR FORCE BA 35.42N 97.37W
01/03/2019  M4.0 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
824 PM CST THU JAN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     SNOW             1 E TINKER AIR FORCE BA 35.42N 97.37W
01/03/2019  M5.0 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
856 PM CST THU JAN 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     SNOW             1 E TINKER AIR FORCE BA 35.42N 97.37W
01/03/2019  M5.0 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

            COMBINATION OF WET SNOW AND ICE IS BREAKING TREE LIMBS
            NEAR SE 59TH AND POST ROAD.

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
910 PM CST THU JAN 3 2019

OKZ023>030-040400-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Pottawatomie OK-Canadian OK-Caddo OK-
Cleveland OK-McClain OK-Lincoln OK-
910 PM CST THU JAN 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Grady...southern
Oklahoma...northwestern Pottawatomie...southern Canadian...
northeastern Caddo...northern Cleveland...northwestern McClain and
southwestern Lincoln Counties Until 1000 PM CST....

AT 908 PM CST, a heavy band of snow was located from Meeker to
Oklahoma City to Tuttle. Snowfall rates of at least two inches per
hour are expected. A narrow swath of significant snowfall
accumulations over 6 inches are possible.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Significantly reduced visibility...
Snow covered roads...
Possible damage to tree limbs due to the weight of the snow...

LAT...LON 3561 9683 3559 9708 3552 9765 3542 9834
      3514 9839 3515 9798 3531 9749 3538 9703
      3546 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 91DEG 5KT 3551 9689 3546 9750 3541 9759 3529
9780

BRB