Severe Thunderstorm Warning 849, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1100 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The 06Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
A convective system over Kansas is expected to affect much of
northern, central, and eastern Oklahoma overnight into Friday
morning. Variable wind directions and speeds and occasional
thunderstorms are expected as the system moves southeast across
the area, then gradually dissipates during the morning on Friday.
New thunderstorm development is then expected to occur over
northwest Oklahoma Friday afternoon, spreading across most of the
rest of Oklahoma and possibly into north Texas by late evening and
overnight.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows...

AVIATION...
Scattered TSRA in far southwest Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
Texas should dissipate by 03Z. There is a possibility that a storm
could affect KSPS, but the probability doesn't warrant a TEMPO
line. Additional storms are already forming over Kansas, and may
affect northern Oklahoma between 06 and 12Z, but are more likely
to move into the eastern half of Oklahoma after 08Z (affecting
KPNC as early as 09Z, and KOKC/KOUN a few hours later). After
those storms diminish in the afternoon, still more TSRA
development is expected around 21Z in northwest Oklahoma. Those
storms will likely affect much of the northern half of Oklahoma
during the late afternoon and evening.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Models show a thunderstorm complex developing in Kansas this evening
and moving southward into portions of northern OK overnight into
early Friday morning. The storm development is aided by a
disturbance moving through the flow. There is some uncertainty as to
how far west storms will develop and/or move with some models
keeping most of the activity east of the fa where as some of the
models would say the complex would affect at least portions of the
fa. Current thoughts are that some storms will affect the fa with
the most likely area being along and east of I-35. The thunderstorm
complex could continue to propagate southward across portions of the
fa into tomorrow afternoon. Some storms could be strong to severe in
the area with this complex with strong wind gusts the primary
concern. Locally heavy rain that could lead to flooding will also be
a concern. With this in mind, will issue a Flood Watch for portions
of the fa from 09Z-18Z Friday.

Another round of storms will be possible again Friday night into
Saturday with potentially another storm complex moving from
western/southern KS into parts of the fa. What happens Friday night
into Saturday morning could depend on what occurs with the complex
tonight into tomorrow and how much recovery is able to occur. Some
strong to severe storms could be possible again Friday night with
strong wind gusts the primary concern. Locally heavy rain that could
lead to flooding will also continue to be a concern. With additional
heavy rain possible, the Flood Watch may need to be extended in time
and/or area but only go through 18Z Friday for now due to
uncertainties of effects from the overnight and during the day
Friday's activity.

Models show the upper ridge will influence the region Sunday through
next week leading to dry and warmer conditions. Temperatures for the
middle into later portions of next week are expected to be at or
above average for early September.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  89  70  86 /  10  60  30  30
Hobart OK         73  94  71  93 /  40  20  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  74  93  72  94 /  40  20  10  20
Gage OK           71  94  68  90 /  10  30  40  20
Ponca City OK     71  85  69  82 /  70  70  50  50
Durant OK         72  91  71  90 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 4 AM CDT Friday through Friday afternoon for
     OKZ007-008-012-013-019-020-026.

TX...None.
&&

23/08/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly
in parts of southeast and south central Oklahoma. Severe storms
are not expected but small hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours
are possible with the strongest storms.

Late tonight into early Friday, an area of thunderstorms that
develop in Kansas is expected to move south into portions of
northern Oklahoma, with the highest chances in north central
Oklahoma. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
strong wind gusts and hail possible. Locally heavy rain that could
lead to flooding will also be a concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
The area of thunderstorms is expected to continue to move
south through at least Friday morning and could continue into the
afternoon hours impacting portions of central and southern
Oklahoma. The highest chances will remain along and east of I-35.
Some of these storms could be strong to severe with strong wind
gusts and hail. Locally heavy rain that could lead to flooding
will also be a concern.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible late Friday through
Saturday night. Some strong to severe storms are possible with
damaging wind gusts and hail. Locally heavy rainfall that could
lead to flooding will also continue to be a concern.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 ENE FREEDOM          36.85N 98.85W
08/29/2019  M56.00 MPH       WOODS              OK   MESONET

&&

BTHOREN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

OKZ005>007-300615-
Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-Grant OK-
1229 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Alfalfa...northeastern Woods and
northwestern Grant Counties Until 115 AM CDT...

AT 1224 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles north of Hazelton to 3 miles west of Burlington to 13 miles
northwest of Alva, moving southeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 70 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Alva, Cherokee, Jet, Burlington, Dacoma, Manchester, Amorita, Byron,
Lambert, Ingersoll, Great Salt Plains Lake, Driftwood, Capron and
Hopeton.

LAT...LON 3700 9791 3659 9816 3664 9871 3699 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 318DEG 33KT 3714 9842 3688 9848 3689 9888

WR