Severe Thunderstorm Warning 792, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
307 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have recently
develop across parts of western north Texas. Temperatures have
climbed well into 90s across this area including parts of southern
Oklahoma. The stronger cores this afternoon will have the
potential to produce strong/damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The
storms have generally formed near a surface boundary that extends
into southwest and central Oklahoma. Therefore, in the short term,
it appears the southern part of the Marginal Risk area has a
better chance of experiencing severe storms. The convection along
the boundary this afternoon will mainly dissipate this evening.

A shortwave trough extends from southwest Kansas into southern
Nebraska. This feature is expected to move slowly east and south
through Friday. Some showers and storms have develop over
northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon, but have mainly moved into
Kansas. A few models suggest more development will occur mainly
over north central and central Oklahoma later this evening as low
level winds increase. Not total sure this will happen at least
across north central/central Oklahoma. However, north central
Oklahoma is somewhat vulnerable to flooding, especially if
widespraed showers and storms develop. PW values remain rather
high and storms will be rather efficient rain producers.

A trough currently moving across parts of Idaho and Montana will
continue east and south through the first half of the weekend.
Thunderstorms should form along the higher terrain Friday
afternoon and evening and impact at least northern and western
Oklahoma Friday night into Saturday morning. Additional showers
and storms should form late Saturday into Sunday as the shortwave
trough move across the central and southern Plains.

Mainly dry weather is expected for the second half of Sunday
into much of Monday. On Monday, very hot and humid conditions are
likely, especially southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Heat
headlines may be required. A cold front is expected to move across
the area late Monday into Tuesday. This will bring another chance
of rain and obviously cooler temperatures. A stronger cold front
is expected around Thursday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  87  70  87 /  50  50  40  50
Hobart OK         72  94  70  92 /  40  40  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  75  94  72  94 /  30  30  40  40
Gage OK           68  92  65  89 /  30  20  60  50
Ponca City OK     70  85  68  82 /  60  40  50  40
Durant OK         73  89  73  91 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms
will also produce locally heavy rainfall that could result in
some flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue on
Friday and Saturday. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible
with the primary hazard being gusty winds. Heavy rainfall that
could lead to localized flooding is also possible.

The chance for thunderstorms returns late Monday into Tuesday of
next week.

.Heat...
Afternoon heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees will possible once
again next Sunday and Monday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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