Severe Thunderstorm Warning 783, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1052 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms are expected to be moving east of KLAW after 08z.
Othwerwise, VFR conditions and south winds are expected at TAF
sites. South wind will become gusty Sunday, and a weak front in
northwestern Oklahoma will turn winds to north at KWWR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 704 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Apart from thunderstorms affecting CSM this evening, VFR
conditions and gusty south wind are expected until 182400.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...

The primary concerns for this forecast period will be the now usual
spotty and uncertain rain chances, as well as heat concerns over the
next few days. Currently there are some lingering showers moving
through western and central Oklahoma. These showers have been
showing pulse type characteristics, with heavy rains at times and
occasional lightning. In addition, there is a psuedo-dryline is
positioned across the Oklahoma-Texas panhandles. Surface moisture
advection continues to bring >70F dewpoints into central and western
Oklahoma. This moisture along with the instability available east of
the drier airmass (>2000 J/kg CAPE) is expected to produce some
scattered storms along and east of the airmass boundary later this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Some of these storms could
become severe, with the primary threats being heavy downpours and
strong winds.

In addition to the threat of precip, heat continues and will
continue to be an issue across Oklahoma and parts of western north
Texas. The longer than expected lingering of rain in northern
Oklahoma will reduce the heat impacts, and continued development of
clouds along a 700mb moisture axis will act to contain any excessive
heat in parts of western and northern Oklahoma. This relief should
be short lived however with the increasing dewpoints and clearing
skies through the afternoon.

Looking ahead into next week, there's some uncertainty in the medium
and long range models on the setup and the intensity of the upper
level ridge, however there is consistent agreement of it's presence
Monday into Tuesday, which should suppress precipitation chances
for these days. Wednesday onward, an upper-level trough is
expected to dig southward through the eastern US, which will shift
the upper- level ridge westward. This shift is anticipated to
bring cooler temperatures and precipitation chances during the
latter half of next week.

Zwink

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79 101  77 101 /  30  10  10  10
Hobart OK         77 107  77 106 /  40   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  80 105  79 104 /  20  10  10   0
Gage OK           74 103  71 104 /  30  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     77  97  75  98 /  30  10  20  10
Durant OK         78 100  78 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     017>020-023>032-037>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

06/09/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
950 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-190300-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
950 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight,
mainly across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas.
The stronger storms will produce locally heavy rainfall, strong
wind gusts to 50 mph and occasional lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Storms will be possible Sunday evening across parts of north
central Oklahoma. Thunderstorm chances will return to the area
Tuesday evening and continue through the rest of the week.

.Heat...
Afternoon heat indices of 100 to near 110 degrees will continue
across much of the area Sunday through Tuesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and
follow our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1037 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

OKZ024-027-180400-
Grady OK-Canadian OK-
1037 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Grady and southeastern
Canadian Counties Until 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1033 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Minco, moving
east at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 to 45 MPH...

LAT...LON 3538 9767 3532 9767 3521 9800 3535 9810
      3538 9810 3557 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 259DEG 16KT 3533 9798

SIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SSE FREDERICK         34.34N 98.99W
08/17/2019  M66 MPH          TILLMAN            OK   ASOS

&&

BTHOREN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1054 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

OKZ024-025-027>029-180430-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
1054 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Grady...southwestern
Oklahoma...southeastern Canadian...northwestern Cleveland and
northwestern McClain Counties Until 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1050 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Tuttle, moving
east at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 45 to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3520 9797 3546 9794 3553 9753 3519 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 274DEG 17KT 3532 9779

SIX