Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.AVIATION...
First area of showers and thunderstorms is lifting over western
and northwestern OK. Some light dz/ra will be possible over WWR
with this. Additional development is then expected later this
morning through most of the the day initially from SPS, and then
spreading northward over most of the terminals. Some small hail
can't be ruled out later but not confident enough to mention any
of this for the time being. Expect vsby restrictions due to heavy
rainfall.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

DISCUSSION...
The initial complex of storms over western north TX and SW OK has
been on a weakening trend over the last hour. However, expect
additional development as it lifts northeastward through the early
morning hours near and north of the Red River. In addition,
increasing 850-925 mb southerly flow will continue to result in
moistening of this layer, enhancing elevated instability from SW,
central, and southern OK through 15Z or so. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible especially near 11-14Z over this area.
Deep layer shear will only slowly increase so this will be a
limiting factor. Storms associated with main mid level shortwave
trough have also developed over west TX this morning. The northern
extent of which extends to near LUB. As this feature lifts
northeastward, some additional development will be possible mid
day over central and north central OK. Limited instability should
keep these storms fairly docile.

A secondary southern stream trough is expected to traverse central
and south central TX early Sun, and then lift near the Arklatex
Sunday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
along a stalled front Sun afternoon and evening, but confidence in
the location of this feature is low. For now, the most likely
location for storms to develop Sun will be along and east of I-35,
and near/south of I-40 over central and se OK. Deep layer shear
will certainly keep most of this activity, if it manages to
develop, fairly unorganized. Precip chances will come to an end
Mon as the surface low moves into the Miss. River valley and drags
north winds behind it.

A warming trend is expected Mon-Wed under an upper level ridge. By
late Tue night, a fairly deep upper trough will cross the central
Rockies and then move into the central plains during the day Wed.
The attendant surface low and pressure gradient will increase
southerly and southwesterly winds over our area. Highs may
approach 90 over portions of western north TX. This, combined with
very dry air moving off the high plains of TX, will result in
fire weather concerns during the afternoon hours mainly over the
western half of our FA. A cold front will then move through
overnight Wed into Thursday morning cooling things off quite a
bit. Morning lows by Friday could drop to near freezing across NW
OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  57  76  54 /  70  30  20  20
Hobart OK         71  54  76  51 /  60  20  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  58  79  56 /  80  20  10  20
Gage OK           70  50  76  46 /  50  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     69  56  75  52 /  60  40  20  10
Durant OK         71  60  77  57 /  80  20  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/03/03

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
743 AM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

TXZ089-090-061315-
Clay TX-Archer TX-
743 AM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Clay and
southeastern Archer Counties Until 815 AM CDT....

AT 741 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
7 miles southeast of Megargel to 5 miles southeast of Olney to 5
miles north of Graham, moving northeast at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Archer City and Windthorst.

LAT...LON 3340 9892 3363 9869 3362 9834 3348 9823
      3347 9842 3340 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 224DEG 32KT 3336 9886 3333 9868 3318 9859

WR