Severe Thunderstorm Warning 628, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
243 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Showers/storms will develop and move across the area through early
Wednesday. There are several areas where initial storm development
could occur this afternoon/early evening. One area is in southern
Kansas down into portions of northern. Another is near the dryline
in portions of the Texas panhandle and west Texas moving towards the
fa. Any late afternoon/early evening storms could be discrete
supercells with very large hail and strong wind gusts possible.
There is also a low tornado risk with these storms. The storms are
expected to merge into one or more storm complexes that move across
the area later this evening into early Wednesday. These storms could
also be severe with damaging wind threat becoming an increasing
concern while the hail size and potential for tornadoes are expected
to decrease. In addition to the potential for severe storms, heavy
rain could lead to flooding in some locations late this evening into
early Wednesday.

Models show a boundary near the Red River area by Wednesday
afternoon with storm development possible near the boundary, mainly
in SE portions of the fa. Some of these storms could become strong
to severe as well, although what happens Wednesday will be dependent
on what occurs tonight into tomorrow morning.

A brief dry period could be possible for much of the area Thursday
into part of the day Friday. However, surface heating and any subtle
disturbance in the flow that models can not resolve may lead to some
storm development. The upper pattern will shift to SW flow Friday
with a shortwave approaching and moving across the central/southern
Plains over the weekend bringing another chance for showers/storms
to the fa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  85  64  92 /  70  20  10   0
Hobart OK         66  89  65  95 /  50  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  92  69 100 /  40  20  10   0
Gage OK           62  84  61  93 /  60  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     65  81  62  89 /  90  20   0   0
Durant OK         70  90  69  93 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191745-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms across much of
western, northern, and central Oklahoma surrounded by a slight
risk in western north Texas and south central Oklahoma for late
this afternoon into the overnight hours.

Strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and
evening when storms will form in southern Kansas, possibly into
northern Oklahoma, and near a dryline in the Texas panhandle and
west Texas, spreading into Oklahoma and north Texas this evening.
Initially the storms could be discrete but will likely merge into
one or more complexes as they make their way east and southeast
across the area this evening and overnight.

Initially the impacts will be very large hail up to the size of
baseballs and strong wind gusts. As the storms merge, the primary
threat will shift to damaging winds with hail likely decreasing
in size. There is also a low risk for tornadoes late this
afternoon and evening, especially with the initial storm
development, with the potential likely decreasing late this
evening and overnight.

.Heavy Rain and Flooding...
Heavy rain associated with thunderstorms late this afternoon into
the overnight period may result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday afternoon and evening
across portions of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. There is a
slight risk for severe storms across portions of south central
Oklahoma. Friday into the weekend will see additional
thunderstorm chances... with strong to severe storms remaining
possible.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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