Severe Thunderstorm Warning 596, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
307 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Storm development is expected to continue in the high plains of
eastern NM and CO and then near a dryline in the Panhandles into
west TX. These storms will move towards the area moving into western
portions of the fa this evening. Other storms could also develop
near a boundary in northern OK late this afternoon and evening. All
the storms are expected to develop into one or more thunderstorm
complexes that move across portions of the area this evening into
early Sunday. These storms could become severe beginning late this
afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours. Initially, large
hail and strong winds will be the main threats but the potential for
damaging winds will increase later this evening with the potential
for large hail decreasing. Heavy rain/flooding will also be a
concern in some areas tonight.

What happens Sunday will be impacted by what occurs later today into
early Sunday. Showers/storms do appear likely Sunday afternoon/night
due to a shortwave moving across OK. Storm development may also be
aided by any lingering boundaries and/or MCVs from tonight's
convection. Enough recovery of the airmass over the area could
happen that some strong/severe storms could develop late Sunday
afternoon/night.

Another round of showers/storms will be possible Monday evening into
early Tuesday and then again Tuesday night into early Wednesday
mainly from convection developing in the high plains and then moving
into the fa. However, a frontal boundary could be just south of the
Red River at least on Monday which some storm development near the
boundary could be possible in S portions of the fa as well. There
could also be other lingering boundaries, etc in/near the fa from
the previous night's convection early next week. Off and on rain
chances will continue across at least portions of the fa into next
weekend. Heavy rain/flooding and strong to severe storms will also
remain possible next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  85  65  84 /  80  30  60  30
Hobart OK         67  87  65  87 /  80  30  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  89  68  88 /  70  30  60  30
Gage OK           63  83  61  83 /  60  30  30  10
Ponca City OK     67  83  64  83 /  80  30  50  30
Durant OK         72  86  69  84 /  60  40  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
908 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-170215-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
908 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Moderate Risk severe storms across much of central and
southwest Oklahoma tonight. Enhanced and Slight Risks surround the
Moderate Risk area. Severe storms across northwest Oklahoma, and
from southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas, will join into
a large storm complex around midnight, then surge southeast
across the rest of Oklahoma and north Texas. Large hail up to the
size of tennis balls and damaging winds will be the main threats
until about 11 pm, then the hail threat will slowly diminish. The
threat of severe weather will diminish around 2 am. Torrential
rain from the storms may also lead to areas of flooding.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
area should prepare for severe weather operations through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
On Sunday, a Slight Risk covers portions of central and southern
Oklahoma, and most of western north Texas. What happens Sunday
will be affected by the storms that occur Saturday night, so
there is some uncertainty. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main concerns with severe storms Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances will continue off and on next week, with
strong to severe storms remaining possible.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding across portions of
Oklahoma through next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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