Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
309 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Main concerns continue to be with potential for severe storms late
today into tonight as well as strong winds Saturday and freezing
temperatures Sunday morning.

Cold front, currently across northwest Oklahoma will move slowly
southeast today as upper support remain well west of the area.
Although some early morning convection may still occur, much of
the warm sector looks to remain dry today. There may be some
patchy drizzle behind the front across parts of western and
northwestern Oklahoma.

As was mentioned before, main wave remains well west of the area
and airmass that exists across Oklahoma and western north Texas
will remain capped through much of the day. Better chance for
convective development occurs this evening into the overnight
across north-central, central into eastern Oklahoma as the upper
wave moves out of Colorado into the southern Plains and increasing
low level jet aids in forcing to overcome cap. Models still
indicate sufficient instability will exist for severe convection,
with main hazard being large hail.

Also, as wave moves out across the area, surface cold front will
surge south with strengthening cold advection. This will result in
much colder air overspreading the area along with gusty north
winds late Friday night into the day Saturday. Some areas may
flirt with wind advisory wind speeds and will need to monitor for
possible headline for Saturday. Also, not out of the question, if
precip lingers long enough in far northwest Oklahoma to see some
snowflakes mix in with the rain late tonight.

Surface high will settle south Saturday night with clearing skies,
which will lead to freezing temperatures across at least northwest
half of Oklahoma by Sunday morning.

Models then bring another wave through the area late Monday,
which may produce a few light showers, but moisture will be
somewhat limited in the wake of cold front. Monday looks to be
another rather cool day, before return of more seasonal
temperatures by Tuesday.

Next chance of rain/thunderstorms comes back into the forecast by
late Wednesday as another shortwave trough moves through the area
along with associated surface front. Chance of severe weather
looks minimal with this system at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  42  49  30 /  20  50   0   0
Hobart OK         73  40  52  29 /  20  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  79  47  55  34 /  10  40   0   0
Gage OK           55  34  50  23 /  20  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  40  49  29 /  40  50  10   0
Durant OK         72  51  56  35 /  10  50  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

25/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
420 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-300930-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
420 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

.Thunderstorms...
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late today and
tonight across parts of the area. The marginal risk is generally
east of a line from Medford to Watonga to Lawton.

Although an isolated thunderstorm will be possible during the day
today, much of the area is expected to remain dry as a strong cap
will limit convection. By tonight, a upper level disturbance will
move across the southern Plains and a developing low level jet
will aid in overcoming the cap, resulting in scattered
thunderstorm development. Elevated instability will be sufficient
for a few severe storms to be possible. Large hail, up to the size
of golf balls, will be the main hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

.Strong Winds...
Strong gusty north winds are expected to develop Saturday morning
and will continue through much of the day Saturday. Wind gusts to
near 40 mph will be possible.

.Freezing Temperatures...
A cold airmass will overspread Oklahoma and western north Texas
this weekend and will result in freezing temperatures across much
of the area by Sunday morning. Near freezing temperatures will be
possible again Monday morning across northwest Oklahoma.

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night across
northern into eastern Oklahoma. The risk of severe thunderstorms
is low Wednesday night.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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