Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
627 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
A chaotic surface pattern will result in highly variable wind
directions this evening and overnight. At most sites, winds should
be fairly light after 00Z, except in/near thunderstorms. A front
will pass through Oklahoma and north Texas early Sunday,
switching winds to northerly for the rest of the day. Storms will
be possible over southeast Oklahoma Sunday afternoon/evening, but
these storms should be east of our TAF sites (with the possible
exception of KSPS).

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Additional scattered thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon and evening. Some of the CAMs show that these storms could
develop in parts of central OK and move across portions of the fa.
Some of these storms could become severe with good deep layer wind
shear and some instability. However, the impacts and extent of
recovery from this morning's activity leads to some uncertainty of
location and extent of storm development. Large hail and strong
wind gusts are the primary concerns with the severe storms,
although there is also a very low potential and short window for a
tornado, especially in any areas where there is some localized
backing of sfc winds which could enhance low-level shear. It
looks like the potential for severe storms will end later this
evening, even though showers/storms will remain possible overnight
for areas, mainly near and east of I-35.

Models show a cold front moving across the area Sunday. The front
along with a shortwave moving across the region could lead to
additional showers/storms Sunday, especially when the front moves
into SE portions of the fa where better moisture is expected. A few
severe storms will be possible again Sunday afternoon/evening in SE
portions of the fa before the storms move out of the fa later Sunday
evening/overnight.

Forecast will remain dry for at least the first half of the work
week before the upper ridge begins to shift east of the area as
upper trough develops over the western U.S. Models differ as to the
evolution/strength/timing of this upper system as it approaches and
moves across the region. This will have an impact on the timing and
location of any rain for the latter half of the week into next
weekend. With that in mind, there is currently low confidence in the
PoP forecast for portions of the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  70  45  62 /  50  10   0   0
Hobart OK         45  69  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  75  48  68 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           39  68  39  63 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     47  68  44  59 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         57  76  49  68 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/03/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
324 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-242030-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
324 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Late this afternoon and evening a few thunderstorms could become
severe, mainly near and east of a line from Enid, to Lawton, to
Wichita Falls. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
from 4 PM to 10 PM as these storms move east. The main threat will
be hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts over 60 mph.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
central and southern Oklahoma should prepare for severe weather
operations from 4 to 10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will linger in southeast Oklahoma Sunday with
a marginal risk of severe weather roughly southeast of a line
from Holdenville to Madill.

Thunderstorms will be possible again in some areas beginning
Wednesday or Wednesday Night and continuing through Friday, mainly
across central and eastern Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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