Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
617 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.AVIATION...

12z TAFs...Mostly MVFR conditions this morning outside of
thunderstorms currently moving in to southwestern OK. These storms
will continue moving to the northeast this morning, affecting TAF
sites across central OK through about 17z. Storms may redevelop
later this afternoon, with the highest confidence of this across
northern portions of Oklahoma. Otherwise should see conditons
return to VFR this afternoon for most of the area. Later this
evening expecting a front to shift winds to a northwesterly
direction for most sites by tomorrow morning.

Ware

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing near or shortly
after sunrise across southwestern OK with the approach of an upper
short wave trough. Shear and thermodynamic profiles likely support
damaging wind and a few tornadoes. This area is expected to move
across southeastern Oklahoma later this morning. Meanwhile, a cold
front will slowly approach northwestern Oklahoma coincident with
the main upper trough. Increased instability and lift in this area
may support large hail in isolated thunderstorms. These systems
move east of Oklahoma this evening with cooler and drier air to
follow into Sunday. By Monday south winds will bring increased
moisture north again ahead of a very strong upper wave which is
expected to bring widespread severe weather with all severe
weather hazards. This also may bring heavy rainfall since several
smaller short-wave troughs are expected to traverse Oklahoma.
Refer to the Hazardous Weather Outlook for details. This first
wave will exit early Tuesday, but the long wave trough over the
western U.S. will remain there through next week. This will allow
a series of short- wave troughs to pass across the southern plains
where lower level moisture will once again be in place from
Wednesday. Thunderstorms are expected each day into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  56  78  59 /  60  50   0  20
Hobart OK         81  53  79  60 /  50  10   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  82  56  82  64 /  60  10   0  20
Gage OK           81  51  77  55 /  50  10   0  30
Ponca City OK     75  56  75  56 /  60  40   0  10
Durant OK         76  61  83  64 /  80  40   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/23/08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
432 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-182000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
432 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms and flooding...
A large area of strong to severe storms is expected to affect
central and southern Oklahoma, and north Texas, this morning and
early afternoon. Additional storms may develop in western
Oklahoma this afternoon, then move northeast this evening. Any of
the storms may produce hail up to baseball size, damaging winds,
and flooding rain. A few tornadoes may occur, with the highest
risk in southeast Oklahoma this afternoon.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
Oklahoma and north Texas should prepare for severe weather
operations through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms and flooding...
Thunderstorms are in the forecast Sunday night through Friday. The
most significant and widespread severe weather is expected Monday
into Monday night across most of Oklahoma and north Texas. Very
large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible with
the strongest storms on Monday. The risk of severe storms will
diminish through the end of the week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
638 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

OKZ037-TXZ085-181215-
Tillman OK-Wilbarger TX-
638 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Tillman and
northwestern Wilbarger Counties Until 715 AM CDT...

AT 636 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Vernon, moving
northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 9944 3434 9922 3434 9919 3436 9920
      3442 9908 3431 9897 3409 9935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1136Z 234DEG 36KT 3419 9933

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
717 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

OKZ024-025-027-181245-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-
717 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Grady...west central
Oklahoma and eastern Canadian Counties Until 745 AM CDT...

AT 714 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Minco, moving
northeast at 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3550 9756 3517 9790 3525 9810 3529 9810
      3564 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1214Z 214DEG 30KT 3529 9794

Ware

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
718 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

OKZ025-028-029-181245-
Oklahoma OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
718 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Oklahoma...northwestern
Cleveland and northwestern McClain Counties Until 745 AM CDT...

AT 717 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over southwestern
Oklahoma City, moving northeast at 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3522 9749 3531 9767 3541 9767 3573 9747
      3573 9746 3560 9718
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 209DEG 33KT 3534 9755

Ware